Well, There’s At Least One Thing
Reimposing Mask Mandates Can Stop…

… A Rebound In Air Traffic

Uncertainty. Misinformation. Innuendo.

Great ways to kill off consumer confidence in regard to travel.

Ken Kute & Barbie Airhead On The 6PM News Are In Full Swing. On one hand, we have evening news anchors earnestly advising that the CCP-Covid disease is spreading, with the clear and intended innuendo that a new body count is inevitable. No bother to discuss further data on the severity or nature of the reported infections. Just the implications of doom.

On the other hand, there are data indicating that deaths from CCP-Covid are at a new low.

Who to believe? It doesn’t make any difference to a consumer – it is uncertainty, and uncertainty leads to cancelling travel.

Surprise! Confusion In The White House. On July 30, it was reported that Joe Biden stated that “stricter rules” and maybe stay at home orders were a “probability” due to a reported expansion on CCP-Covid infections.

Then, as quickly as it came, it was “clarified” by his White House handlers, noting that there are other “tools in the belt” to handle the situation.

What’s Next… A New Run On Toilet Paper? Meanwhile another White House advisor – Dr. Fauci – indicated a need for expanding orders to wear masks.

Regardless of the pros, cons, accuracy, hype or whatever, these types of news articles are not inducive to generating air travel – particularly discretionary trips. As we pointed out in a recent Aviation Unscripted video, the circled firing squad approach from Washington isn’t going to encourage new travel.

The Medical Solution: Show Complete Obedience. Yessir. Let’s don those masks. Let’s see…  A quick geography lesson regarding the sheer effectiveness of mask-wearing is of value.

Beijing. Guangzhou. Nanjing, Mianyang.

Everybody in these huge Chinese cities has been wearing masks for over a year. Dutifully. Enforced. No exceptions. Forget the police, you will be beaten up in the subway by other riders if you don’t wear one. It’s been part of the Chinese consumer anatomy.

Yet, these are all places where, apparently, the CCP-Covid virus is again having its way with Chinese citizens. These aren’t isolated burgs in the Chinese boondocks – one glance at a map, and it’s clear that China is crawling with the fruits of the Covid labors accomplished by the hoodlums in charge.

Huh? We Were Told That The CCP Was The Virus-Control Varsity. Gee, remember the network media automatons instructing us last year that the Chinese government was exemplary in quickly preventing the spread of a disease they created?

“Youbetcha,” the slimy hacks at the WHO chimed in, lauding what were the most criminal government actions since the Tiananmen Square massacre.  The WHO lied and the media just kept playing rhythm guitar to this scam… China’s CCP had brought the pandemic to its knees, and we were instructed to accept this malarkey as fact.

‘Course, like so much of what we’re told, it was complete dishonest garbage. But this propaganda was swallowed by major news sources like fish tossed out to trained seals. Some in the media – especially outlets with in-China bureaus – still pass on this dishonesty.

But now whole areas of Chinese cities are being quarantined, usually with all the smooth courtesy of a lock-down after a riot at maximum security prison.

So, With The News From China, Why Masks? Bringing this back to local USA relevance, remember, these hundreds of thousand or maybe millions of victims now infected by the CCP-virus were just about all wearing masks. Everywhere.

Did a lot of good. So, according to the politicians, the USA should do the same. It’s like betting on a football instant replay, hoping for a different outcome.

No Indication of The Severity or Danger or Nature. Just Accept. Yes, it appears that the Wuhan gift is still giving.

So, toss in panting stories on the evening news about infections in the U.S., and things are not looking positive for the future of free and open airline travel. The challenge now is that we cannot really trust what’s coming off the airwaves.

Again, more accurately, the situation is that we must show subservience to our glorious, all-knowing leaders and don the symbol of obedience – covering our nose and mouth. And not breathing normally.

Effective? Nobody Knows. Now, amid the oh-so-sanctimonious demands to once again wear masks, it don’t make no nevermind what we use or how effective it may be – an N94, or a handkerchief, a dirty bandana, or one of those defective paper masks imported from very country whose creepy government created the pandemic.

These zoo keepers will tell us to just do it and show obedience. Cover your face. Or be accused of being a killer.

Write The Air Traffic Recovery Over, If… Aside from all this, the life forms inside the Beltway have deemed it necessary to continue to masks in airports and airplanes. No justification. No hard science. Just obey.

That’s just like in China, where the same policies have apparently done diddly to prevent this latest spread.

If this stuff is expanded back to other venues in America, it will – will – put a drag on air travel demand.

We’ll keep an eye on this… but if wider mask requirements are implemented and traffic drops materially post Labor Day, it will be self-inflicted.

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Now…

The Quarterly Outlook™ –
Beyond The Numbers & Into The Future

It’s not easy for airports and communities to plan for the future amid the constantly-shifting dynamics of air transportation.

The new Quarterly Outlook™ from Airports:USA™ is the solution. Not just numbers, but hard and incisive data and professional enplanement forecasts, with perspectives that go beyond the numbers, specific to the client airport.

Changes & New Paradigms – The Quarterly Outlook™ Is On It. What will the consumer do, post Labor Day? Business travel will see some return, but it won’t be in the same regions as before, because the structure of that sector has changed.

Major East Coast airports that were mainly dependent on business and personal travel generation will see less traffic volume rebound than secondary cities where there are emerging major demographic in-migrations.

To survive, airlines continue to deftly shift strategies and directions faster than a performance of the Bolshoi ballet. In-concrete route and market plans from just six months ago are now in the round fixture. Airports where an airline definitely red-lined service pre-CCP-Covid are getting service that they literally didn’t expect.

So, amid this volatile and unsettled market, Airports:USA® is now offering subscribers an exciting and incisive planning tool… the Quarterly Outlook™.

Forecast Enplanements & The Airline Trends Driving Them.The Quarterly Outlook delivers the latest short-term Airports:USA® month by month enplanement forecasts, along with the specific trends and dynamics driving them. This includes discussion of known and expected strategies on the part of incumbent – and potential incumbent – airlines at the specific airport.

And, it also includes an overview of the national traffic trends for the USA, based on the full Airports:USA® forecast covering 168 airports representing over 97% of all enplanements.

The Quarterly Outlook™ delivers what you need to know, directly and concisely with perspectives an airport needs to not only plan the air traffic future, but to keep the community informed.

It takes subscribers behind the numbers. And into the future.

For more information… click here. Then subscribe and get with the future… your airport’s future.

Four Trends To Watch In The Fourth Quarter

The news, generally, is good… as of today.

Passenger numbers are coming back on a national basis. Airlines appear confident, with financial results delivering solid positive direction.

The media coverage is accurate, at least as far as what is apparent today. But that’s not what’s on the very near-term horizon.

Not to rain on this parade, but there are nasty clouds starting to become obvious.

Here are what we believe to be the ones to watch over the next six weeks as we approach post-summer booking trends. Already this week we are seeing certain carriers yanking capacity down from what was filed for September. August is expected to be @ 86% of the capacity in the same month in 2019, and September is indicating it may be below that comparative metric.

Being prepared is being armed for the future.

Rising Inflation

This is the #1 growth stopper on the horizon, and one that may be starting to roost already in booking levels for the 4Q.

The current rebound in traffic is focused on leisure traffic. Leisure traffic is discretionary-driven. When discretionary dollars are reduced due to higher costs of living, that means leisure air travel is going to flatten or decline.

Inflation has already started. It’s in progress. Big time.

Jet-Fuel Prices

The USA has shifted policy away from energy independence.

The current policy is anti-petroleum, and hence the supply of such will be constricted to comply with political considerations. This is one reason that the price of gasoline nationally has jumped by a dollar from last year, even in light of strong potential supply.

Heck, when a terrorist attack was made on Colonial Pipeline, affecting the economy of the East Coast, the current Secretary of Energy was not concerned… according to her, it would have the effect of encouraging use of electric vehicles. Anything to reduce use of fossil fuels, don’t ya know.

Jet-A is not immune. Toss in the current distribution issues being seen across the western USA, and it is a leadpipe cinch that fuel is going up and that means fares, too.

In the foreseeable future, too.

The Delta Variant of The CCP Covid Disease

The gift to the world from the criminals imposing themselves on China and the world, the CCP, seems to just keep on coming. Now we have reports of a new strain of the CCP’s handiwork supposedly spreading, and causing uncertainty about safety of air travel.

Surveys are now coming out that consumers are less likely to fly due to the new variant of the virus.

‘Course, nobody seems to want to question whether such surveys are valid. See, when the question is framed as, “there’s a new strain of Covid that people are getting… would that deter you from taking an air trip?”

Even if the respondent has never heard of such an event, and is given no data to determine the scope of the new virus, the natural response would be, given the supposition of a new killer on the loose, that they’d stay away from any congested venue. But the full discussion of what the Delta strain is, and how it responds to vaccines, and the raw number of Delta infections, are not disclosed.

With the track record of yo-yo truth in CCP-Covid reporting over the past year, nothing is certain. But uncertainty keeps people from flying.

It’s a factor that is already gaining traction.

Restructuring of Demand Generation

The latest research at Airports:USA® clearly indicates that demographic factors are in play in air transportation demand.

Historical and traditional geographic air traffic levels are changing. That’s because of a number of factors, but mainly because there are regions of the nation that are no longer competitive in regard to both business location and quality of life.

Take the Middle-Atlantic region. It has been coasting along economically over the last 20 years due to historical inertia as a desired region for commercial activities and quality of life. No more. The civil unrest, trendy politics, rising crime and other experiences over the last year don’t exactly play well in videos promoting New York City as a place to raise a business, not to mention a family.

On the other side of the country, it’s now indicated that the combined capital gains taxes in California will approach 60% in the future. Capital investment won’t be flowing into that state.

These are just starting points. Therefore, air traffic demand growth will be very slow – or negative – in several large metro areas, while concurrently booming in other regions.

We’ve covered this in the publicly-accessible Snapshot section of AirportsUSA.com.

Planning Insight That Goes Beyond Consensus Thinking

These trend reviews are unique to the business philosophy of Boyd Group International.

We focus on the future… the future of our clients across aviation. We are not reticent to state the facts as they are, even when they are counter to “consensus” thinking.

Our research has assisted airlines, airports, financial institutions, manufacturers and suppliers in gaining the competitive edge and in optimizing change.

So, if you’re looking for new perspectives that step beyond yesterday’s consensus thinking, give us a call or send a quick email.

We look forward to working with you – and tackling the future together!

Okay, Time For Some Hard Answers

9-11 Uncovering The Truth… 20 Years Later

Entering into the 20th year since the 9-11 attack, it is a lead pipe cinch that we’re in for some really veneer journalism, marking the event.

If They Tell The Real Facts, They Won’t Get Access To The Homeland Security Honchos. By and large, a number of the usual suspects in the media (and certainly not all) have not only completely bought into the lore that the USA has taken bold action against aviation terrorism, but some are rabid advocates and defenders of the TSA/DHS mess that’s evolved over the last two decades.

They are not journalists. They’re toady apologists.

A couple years ago, we got a call from one of the prime network “correspondents” who are often mannequined in front of the camera, trying to pose as intelligent life forms. He asked for comments regarding the “progress” made by the TSA.

When advised that virtually nothing proactively had been done to set up anticipative security, this clown came unglued – angrily denouncing any such statements, because – get this – he had personally spoken to the Secretary of Homeland Security, and, therefore, had all the facts. Therefore, any information to the contrary had been “debunked.”  We’re talking loud-voice defensiveness – from one of that network’s supposedly top reporters.

The guy is direct competition for what’s hanging on the rack at Men’s Wearhouse.

Get Ready For Some Great Fictional Performances. Unfortunately, we can still expect a rash of oh-so-sincere interviews with current and former vapor-suits at the TSA or Homeland Security. There’s been a parade of them over the last 20 years, almost all incompetent political appointees.

Naturally, watch for the B-roll walk-and-talk chit-chat between the “award-winning” stars of TV news magazines and a motley collection of ex-TSA/DHS notables – mostly telling us to the eager nods of the interviewer that because of their innovative and aggressive planning, there have been no major terrorist attacks (which is a lie), and the system has made us safe (which is another lie.)

Truth and honest journalism need not apply. A few of these guys in the fourth estate would make Pravda in its Soviet heyday very proud.

An Important Source of 9-11 Truth. One imperative for anyone in aviation who seeks the truth about 9-11, not the saccharine goo put out by DHS and gobbled up by much of the media, is to get a copy of Fortress of Deceit – The Story of a 9-11 Whistleblower. It’s the story of Bogdan Dzakovic – one of the FAA Special Agents who was at the forefront of attempting to get through the political corruption that led to the tragedy. We’ll be discussing his role below. The Amazon link is at the end of this Insight.

Got The Answers? In last week’s Monday Insight, we posed questions regarding some of the circumstances surrounding the 9-11 attack and the Keystone Kops official responses. Here are the answers.

Question One: When were the first warnings by security experts of the potential of not only the imminent potential for hijackings, but multiple hijackings, due to sloppy aviation security?

Answer: In the first week of May, 2001, the Fox affiliate accomplished an investigative report on the sloppy and dangerous aviation security at Boston Logan. The results were, frankly, shocking, and it can still be viewed via YouTube.

The day after the report, retired FAA Special Agent Brian Sullivan wrote to Senator John Kerry’s office, specifically warning of Logan’s security shortcomings, and noting that the threat of multiple hijackings was very real…

“Think what the result would be of a coordinated attack which took down several domestic flights on the same day. The problem is, with our current screening system, this is more than possible. Given time, considering current threats, It is almost likely. We don’t have to wait for a tragedy to occur to act.”

This was four months before the terrorists did just that. Kerry’s office did nothing. Later, Mr. Sullivan called FAA Administrator Jan Garvey’s Hotline with the details. Zero substantive response.

A copy of the Fox tape was given directly to FAA Administrator Jane Garvey’s office. She cannot deny that at least her people had knowledge of what it represented. Yet, it was blissfully ignored.

Question Two: When was the first time one of the hijackers was reportedly seen taking pictures of security at Boston Logan Airport?

Answer: It is believed that Mohammad Atta was seen taking pictures of security checkpoints on May 11, coincidentally just days after the Fox report. In any case, the hijackers apparently planned carefully months in advance, including taking test flights. They had no real intelligent or professional competition from the folks at the top of the FAA.

Mr. Sullivan speaks the truth: it can be argued that Al Qaeda was paying more attention to Logan’s airport security vulnerabilities than the FAA and the Airport itself.

Question Three: After being briefed on the major failures at U.S. airports prior to 9-11 by security experts, what actions did Senator John McCain’s office immediately take?

Answer: Worse than nothing. They sneered at the facts.

Frustrated by the total lack of interest on the part of the FAA hierarchy, contact was made by current and past FAA Special Agents directly with key congress members, who, as it turned out could not have cared less.

Mr. Steve Elson, a recently retired Special FAA Agent and Red Team member, and Mr. Bogdan Dzakovic, a current FAA Red Team member at the time, extensively outlined the security shortfalls to a staffer in McCain’s office, who appeared to take copious notes.

When they were done, she looked up and responded, “Interesting, but what do you expect us to do about it.?” She was probably writing up her grocery list. Point: McCain’s office did not care.

These gentlemen also approached Senator John Kerry’s office, and were ultimately blown off with the excuse, “You’re not constituents!” At least this demonstrated that Republicans and Democrats can agree on some things. Kerry, like McCain, simply did not care, either.

The fact was that for these political luminaries to take any action would mean pointing fingers at other colleagues inside the Marble Playpen, a.k.a. congress and administrations on both sides of the aisle. That’s not in the rulebook, at least not in that fraternity.

Question Four: In the aftermath of the worst national security failure since Pearl Harbor, name the three senior federal security officials who were reprimanded for professional malfeasance.

Answer: You can’t.

That’s because no federal staff in charge of the weak security before 9-11 were given any negative scrutiny at all. Much to the contrary.

The dust had barely settled on the Twin Towers before President George W. Bush was quoted as thanking DOT Secretary Norman Mineta and his staff for their fine work. (The DOT’s FAA was responsible for the aviation security that allowed 9-11 to take place.)

Plus, when the TSA was created, many of the security people at the FAA got promotions into it. This simply contaminated the new bureaucracy with the incompetent intellectual FAA sludge that allowed 9-11 to happen. As far as aviation security goes, the TSA is the FAA’s demon spawn.

Question Five: In the immediate aftermath of the attack, what was done with the FAA security team which accurately identified and warned about systemic security weaknesses with the approach used at Boston and other airports?

Answer: In a normal, rational and honest world, this Red Team approach would have been expanded immediately.

Nope, the program was immediately disbanded. While Steve Elson and Brian Sullivan were already retired and were beyond the revengeful reach of the embarrassed hacks at the FAA and the Bush Administration, Mr. Dzakovic, however, was still an employee, and was subsequently and suitably career-harassed for the troublesome whistle-blower he was.

In the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks, the Bush administration stood by like nebbish deer in the headlights. They made no efforts to reward, protect or even recognize these heroes. But Bush did reward with promotions many of the FAA incompetents that were responsible for not addressing bad security. Says volumes.

Question Six: Where did the top official responsible for aviation security at the time of the 9-11 attack ultimately end up, career-wise?

Of the four airliners hijacked, two were United Airlines flights, with loss of all lives, as well as those killed by the plane that was flown into the World Trade Center.

The political appointee Administrator in charge of the FAA – and hence, responsible for the incompetent security in place that allowed 9-11 – later took a number of marquee jobs, and then landed the big one. Chairman of the Board at, yes, United Airlines. One senior official (now gone) at the airline lauded her as the type of management the airline needed. You can’t make this type of melodrama up.

Funny, unions at United vowed “they’d never forget” the tragedy of 9-11. Guess they got distracted. Never heard a peep.

Question Seven: Have there been other successful terrorist attacks on the USA since 9-11?

Answer: Yes.

Terrorist attacks are events that threaten or destroy our way of life. Security is more than stopping bombs on airplanes. Take a gander at what’s happening in cyber space.

In 2021, a successful terrorist computer hacking attack was made on Colonial Pipeline, which materially shutdown the flow fuel to the East Coast.

The Department of Homeland Security, apparently, has no concern or contingency planning beyond trying to stop pointy objects getting on airplanes. The rest of the USA and its infrastructure is wide open. Our electrical grids. Our pipelines. Our road system comprised of rickety interstate highway bridges.

You can take it to ‘Vegas and make book on it: the Department of Homeland security doesn’t have so much as crib sheet in regard to anticipating these types of vulnerabilities, let alone have any contingency or event-remediation planning.

Even at the top of the Washington slag heap, there is no concern. After the Colonial Pipeline attack, a smarmy Biden administration hack, when asked about the event actually snickered and recommended consumers buy electric cars.

Watch for more terrorist hacking events. There have been others. They hit at the core of our societal foundation.

Question Eight: The FAA security inspectors who warned about sloppy pre-9-11 security testified to and were interviewed by the 9-11 Commission. Into which section of the final report were their observations included?

Answer: Don’t bother to look. The testimony of these experts, which illuminated the core of the pre-9-11 malfeasance by the leadership of the FAA, not to mention the almost criminal behavior on the part of other senior officials and politicians, was reduced to just one very short footnote on page 451 of this magnum opus of political slime.

The entire 9-11 Commission itself was an exercise in political corruption, intentionally making sure nobody was held responsible. In that, it was a huge success.

A Warning: We Are Still Vulnerable. Here’s a warning from Brian Sullivan, the retired FAA Special Agent who was involved in trying to get the clowns in the FAA and congress to understand the threat before the tragedy on that Tuesday morning.

“Twenty years ago this June we had a chance to prevent the 9/11 hijackings, but no one was listening. Are they listening now?”

That is, unfortunately, an open question.

More To Come. Over the next few months, we intend to do a number of Aviation Unscripted videos, interviewing some of these people who attempted to get the Bush administration and the Washington hackocracy to take action.

The 9-11 Failures Have NOT Been Addressed. Much to the contrary, and we still have players out there that are targeting the USA. We urge you to order or download Fortress of Deceit. It will put in context the truth about 9-11. Yup, cockpit doors are strengthened and we can’t bring more than 3 Oz of Grecian Formula in our luggage, anymore.  That isn’t anticipative security, and the same failures that were in place 20 years ago continue. A click here will bring you to the order page for Fortress of Deceit on Amazon. Hit it.

In the meantime, we suggest being very cautious in believing what some in the media will be spouting on this 20^th anniversary. There will be some honest stories, but it’s likely many will be suck-up journalism. And run for cover when any of them spout that these allegations have been “debunked.”

All that word means is that it’s not politically acceptable to question the all-knowing media.

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United’s SST Order: No, It’s Not Concorde Phase II

Almost on que, right after last week’s Monday Insight regarding how the failure of the Aerion business jet project was not an indicator of supersonic demise, United announced an order for up to 50 Boom airliners.

That made us feel pretty good.

Forecasting Means Running Counter To The Consensus. We would point out that Boyd Group International was the only aviation consulting and research firm to have projected a positive market potential for the Boom Overture airliner.

Back in 2015-2016, when presented with the concept, and after exploring the foundational assumptions, it was clear that this was not another excursion into fantasy, but one that made core market sense. In particular, Boom was aimed at an airplane that would improve the time-efficiency of air travel.

This intrinsically involved the need for flight speed exceeding that of sound as one of the design imperatives.

Unlike the Concorde, Aerion, and other projects, the goal was not to simply build a flying machine that could pop through the sound barrier.

It was also a concept that was to rely on ambient technology… including powerplants.

Boom? In Our Fraternity? There were some raised eyebrows back in 2016 when we included Boom along with Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, Bombardier and Mitsubishi in the global airliner manufacturer segments of the International Aviation Forecast Summit.  Boom who? Was the question. Most people had not heard of the company. They have now.

Asking Hard Questions Is Not Negativity. But Don’t Start With Trendy Answers. There still is a lot of skepticism regarding the Boom Overture. That is understandable… it’s five years away, and a lot can happen in the air transportation industry. Those kinds of concerns are positive and natural to explore.

But the one thing that gets really old is the oh-so-confident comparisons to the Concorde. Other than being supersonic, the Concorde has no commonality with the Boom project. None. Not in regard to technology. Not in regard to market mission. Not in regard to the air transportation system it will operate within. Not in regard to airline economics.

Not in regard to anything.

It is flat-out ridiculous to compare an airliner that rolled out of the hangar in 1967 with one that will be flying in 2026.

Yes, lots challenges ahead for Boom. But in the meantime, the interest from United and Japan Airlines will have other carriers looking.

Nobody anymore is asking, Boom who?

At BGI we are proud to have been associated with this breakthrough aviation leader.

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This Week’s Aviation Unscripted

A Review: The CCP-Pandemic Damage To U.S. Airports & Aviation

It’s a hoot watching some sectors of the media desperately scrambling to find the rewind button.

Back in August, an Aviation Unscripted video covered the background of how the criminals running China colluded to cover-up the corona virus epidemic in Wuhan. The evidence and events were as obvious as a Big Mac at a vegan wedding.

We reviewed the major damage that the CCP-Wuhan pandemic had inflicted on U.S. airports. We recommended that airports and communities start taking stock, and consider options to go after the estimated $150 billion in Chinese investment in the U.S. And do keep in mind that if it’s a Chinese company, the CCP – the political party running China and which caused this disaster – is involved. These businesses are fair game.

But most of the media simply declared that such data were “debunked.” They issued clear directions: This virus simply came from a pangolin or another infected creature in a wet market. No evidence of any hanky-panky on the part of the low lifes running China.

Oops. Maybe There’s More. Let’s get politically-incorrect, but functionally accurate: some major news outlets went to great lengths to twist the facts, or just ignore them, and instruct we, the Great Unwashed out in TV land, to take their word for it. No, little people, it didn’t come from Wuhan, not really. No, you peons, the WHO and the CCP didn’t dither, cover-up and allow the epidemic to expand. Don’t dare look stupid to imply that our reporting is bogus.

One supposed “news magazine” went to lengths to interview a noted virologist, who categorically denied the Wuhan Institute of Virology could have had anything to do with the pandemic. What the award-winning interviewer left out was that the guy was running an organization that was actually funding and working with the Institute. Just a little conflict of interest.

Holy Lab Leak, Batman… now it seems that the evidence has come over the transom that the CCP and the WHO, and yes, some of the talking heads in the media, were flat out lying. More and more evidence, and more and more “experts” backtracking what they told us last year with total confidence.

Now with renewed calls for demanding recompense from the CCP, it would be appropriate to once again review the background and facts regarding how this pandemic was allowed to financially torpedo airlines and airports across the USA.

There is no doubt that the CCP is not only criminally responsible for this pandemic, but financially liable. U.S. communities need to go for their financial throats.

Log on to Aviation Unscripted this Thursday, June 10. We’ll be rerunning the August video, containing a lot of now un-debunked facts.

Another reason to question a lot of what some corners of the media are spouting.
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Breeze – Brazen Airline Planning Heresy

Last month, we put on line an edition of Aviation Unscripted that outlined how many traditional air service planning metrics have not just changed, but are completely gone.

The video quickly outlines how many core metrics, economics, airline strategies, and consumer trends that were the bedrock of air transportation are no longer in play.

Along these lines, get ready for some fun media action this week. Start-up Breeze Airways has announced several of its initial routes. They validate the fact that in regard to applications of air travel as a communication modality, it’s a new day. A new day that won’t fit into the traditional assumptions of air transportation planning.

Some new Breeze routes are to Tampa, where traffic stimulation is always in play. But the majority are between cities that on the surface – and based on existing data – have traffic demand roughly equivalent to the capacity of a Ford Econovan.

Absolute Heretical Craziness. And certainly there will be the media gurus who will consult the oracles of raw and unrefined data, a.k.a. the DOT O&D tables. They will read the passenger numbers registered in these city pairs during the robust, pre-CCP Covid year of 2019, and will conclude that David Neeleman and his entire Breeze team have donned Star Trek uniforms and are begging Scotty to beam them up from reality.

Plan on hearing stuff like, “Charleston, SC to Akron/Canton? Lunacy! There are barely ten – total – people going between these cities each day.” Columbus – Hartford/Springfield has less than 22 passengers reported as going each way, each day. “That’s about a 30% load factor on a single Breeze E-190, and there are three other airlines – big guys, including Southwest – offering competing, albeit connecting, service. This is nuts.”

We could go on. There’s amusement in these lightweights.

And we’re not referencing the folks at Breeze. It’s the media types who don’t have a clue regarding either the evolving air service market, new generation airliner platforms, or even how to read DOT data, let alone understanding what those numbers represent.

At Boyd Group International, we’ve been advising our clients to tumble to the fact that many of the traditional planning assumptions are gone. Many of the traditional drivers of air travel are gone, too. Breeze is a clear example. There will be more.

DOT O&D Data Is Not The Same As “Demand”. Here’s a message regarding DOT O&D data. These tables are indicative (and often in error) of the consumers who use air transportation between specific points, based on the characteristics of the air service options between those cities. And that is determined by several factors. In the markets chosen by Breeze, these entail the ease or lack of same of the flight options, the transit time (including connections) and, importantly, the cost.

If any of those change, it will affect the number of consumers choosing to travel.

Breeze is fixin’ to send a lightning bolt or two into the moribund demand factors in a whole passel of new nonstop markets.

In a number of the markets that Breeze is planning, the convenience of using air travel today is just a shade ahead of a wagon train. And in most cases the fares are stratospheric.

Now, Getting To The Bar Mitzvah Is Possible. There’s no question that nonstop Breeze flights in these markets will tend to stimulate some business traffic. But the real play will be in opening city pairs where personal travel – a deep subset, perhaps, of what is lumped together as “leisure” traffic – will be able to use air transportation where until now there were few market-viable options.

Yes, BDL and PIT are very nice places, but regardless of the fare, nonstop flights on Breeze are not going to turn the route into a major vacation option.

The real market for Breeze will be consumers in these cities who will find attending that the wedding in Akron/Canton is no longer out of financial reach. Or heading to a graduation or Grandma’s birthday in Louisville. Or just to visit relatives in Norfolk when before now, it was too time consuming and too damaging to the bank account to even consider. The true demand is not yet known, because the levels of air access were an obstacle course in time-consuming schedules, high fares, and massive inconvenience.

It’s Being Partially Tried By Other Carriers, Too. We covered this in a recent Aviation Unscripted video. American is adding Dayton – Orlando, where there is only O&D traffic, and no AA flow connections. United is planning a spread of O&D nonstops between Portland, Maine and places like Milwaukee and Columbus. The fact is that the true demand these nonstop flights will develop is unknown because until now the hassle of existing air transportation precluded it. The difference with the Breeze strategy is adding in low fares, which changes the equation from the approach at AA and UA. Big time.

New Generation Airliner Platforms Make This Possible. Now, this does not mean the end of the hub-and-spoke system, as some mushroom-basement academics will likely announce. It simply means that there are additional places where new-generation, multi-mission airliners (like, say, the 80 A220s that Breeze has on order) can generate net new revenues. True, network carriers can do this with current fleets of CRJs or ERJs, but that tends to make the pricing component more difficult.

New Consumer Stratas, Too. As we’ve covered via video at Aviation Unscripted, there are now four consumer air travel sectors. Business, Vacation/Leisure, Personal, and Impulse.

Breeze covers all of these, but the biggest one is personal travel. The operating costs of the A220 will be a major factor in making these new markets possible. If you’ve not seen it, click on the icon or click here.

Rational Growth Plan. As of now, Breeze has a fleet plan for a lot of iron… nine E-190s now in-fleet and an order for 80 A-220-300s, the latter of which are the most mission-flexible in the sky.

Of interest is that the initial plan for Breeze is not to blot out the sun with new A220s. The plan appears to be two units added by the end of 2021, and only 11 more coming from the factory in 2022. Apparently another 17 the year after, plus it’s likely the initial 9 E-190/195s will be phased out.

Yes, It Can Work. Naturally, it is possible, and maybe likely, that some of the market choices won’t work out. But with a rational fleet strategy such as this, the program is clearly well planned.

Bank on it: it will succeed.

Planning For The New Future? We’re Ready. Boyd Group International is at the cutting edge of the new trends that will be creating the new post CCP-Covid air transportation system.

We focus on tomorrow – so for air access planning and futurist traffic demand and trend forecasts, give us a call.

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Air Traffic Growth Trends:

Don’t Misread The Clouds on The Horizon.
Expansion’s Coming. But Just Not Where Traditionally Expected.

As of today, it appears that capacity in June will likely be around 80% of that in the same month of 2019.

As the CCP-Covid pandemic continues to recede (or, at least until the incredible, unfocused political hype surrounding it runs out of steam) it is natural to find consumers going back to leisure travel.

But amid all the media stories about the crowds and “surge” expected this summer, it’s still a spike off of a materially lower travel base. The economy has changed. Therefore, the role and location and applications of air transportation will change also.

To be clear, the increase in capacity does not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in enplanements. Allegiant in April had the majority of its fleet back in the skies, but with a reported 60% load factor. They are planning for the future.

The only real unknown is the level to which business travel will return. Some are predicting that it will be at or near 2019 levels. This, unfortunately, ignores the fact that electronic communication was already eating into the value of air travel as a business channel. The CCP-Covid episode served to shove it into overdrive.

The Value of Business Travel Has Changed. One bottom line that tends to be missed in such projections is that, simply put, a substantial portion of business travel was undertaken because there were no other communication modalities that allowed people to meet, confer, and exchange ideas face to face. Now, there are alternatives superior in efficiency and cost – virtual meetings – and the CCP pandemic has established them front and center.

Other Clouds on The Air Transportation Horizon –Beyond the current snap back in traffic, a longer view for the airline industry may not be particularly comforting, unless it is viewed in the context of the new role of air travel as a communication channel. There are some serious issues – troubling issues – but the emerging shift in the geographic make up of the U.S. industrial and business base will deliver some surprising growth in some surprising regions.

But, let’s reach out and touch a couple of storm clouds.

Higher Fuel Costs. The Colonial Pipeline security fiasco has sent a strong message in regard to fuel costs based on current distribution channels. (Yes, it was a security failure, conceptually like 9/11, but without violence.) The supply system is vulnerable and fragile, and airlines will need to re-think fuel logistics to some degree.

Moonbeam Energy Planning. It needs to be stated. There are a phalanx of misguided, trendy policies coming out of Washington, which are guaranteed to spike the cost of jet-A, not to mention all forms of energy. The shutdown of the Keystone pipeline construction (particularly after the distribution vulnerabilities demonstrated by the Colonial affair) is not sound future planning. It’s part of a playbook that’s not going to get the USA over the goal line.

There is an open and clear attack on the programs that made the USA energy-independent for the first time in over half a century. In their place are schemes that encourage use of “alternative” and supposedly “sustainable” sources of energy, such as battery-electric options. The fact is that while there are no emissions from the tail pipes, that electric automobile or electric push-tug is the end product of a total system that is neither ecologically clean nor “sustainable.”

(We cover that point in the latest Aviation Unscripted video. Click at the end of the Insight to go there. True heresy.)

The Economy – Signs Are Not Going In The Right Direction. While the stock market may be bubbling along, a number of the indicators that affect how consumers use air travel can be taken as warning signals. Consumer confidence – a harbinger of air travel demand – plunged last month. Inflation – and media stories about inflation – are also front and center. At this point, the majority of consumer-related factors that support air service are in question, based on traditional metrics and planning methodologies. They no longer fully apply to the emerging, post CCP-Covid economy in the USA.

But There Is A Recovery – Regional & Focused. What our Airports:USA® forecasts are now indicating is actually strong redistribution of air service demand. Mid-size and even some smaller cities, particularly those with strong and growing economic foundations and a high quality of life, will be experiencing air travel growth, in some cases enormous growth.

We are not – repeat, not – referring to the lucky airports that see ULCC service enter. This type of traffic is separate and parallel to the economic-generated demand that will be accessed by the major network and semi-network carriers.

As we noted in our March 3 Aviation Unscripted video, there is now a migration of businesses seeking new venues. They are escaping to regions that do not demonstrate the major challenges seen last summer – and continuing today – at many major metro centers. We’d note that several weeks later, the Wall Street Journal came to similar conclusions.

It’s not a re-make of Exodus – there’s no economic Moses involved, and the Interstates aren’t choked with moving vans escaping New York City and other big metros. But it’s enough migration to deliver strong traffic demand to places like Boise, Colorado Springs, Ithaca, and the like. And, it’s not in future tense. It’s happening now.

We cover this dynamic literally on a daily basis with Airports:USA®. We’ll be soon sending out information regarding our new forecast subscription programs for airports and communities.

It’s a tool that until now, simply wasn’t available.

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And As For Believing The Consensus...

Again – we’re being told that if there’s no CO2 coming out of the tailpipe, that means all is green and “sustainable.”

Not necessarily so.

If you have not yet seen our Aviation Unscripted video on the subject, you may want to take a look. Over the decades, the powers-that-be, the media, and lots of groupie-like gadflies have periodically fed us official dogma about the latest unquestioned future trends.

Remember in the 1950s, for example it was the wonders of the atom that would change the world?

Today, there’s another whole set of future solutions, none of which should ever be questioned. But here’s a tidbit. All that electric ground equipment that airports are snapping up – the ones that have no emissions out of the tailpipe – are in a Colonial Pipeline-like danger. The supply that makes them move has a distantly similar vulnerability.

Oh, and this stuff about this equipment representing “sustainability” and green propulsion isn’t entirely accurate, at least in the total process of getting that tug to gate 23.

Click here for the video.

Summer Traffic Spike – It’s Restructuring. Not Recovery To Pre-CCP-Covid.

We’ve noted in the latest Touch & Go newsletter sent to our clients & friends that the now-in-progress spike in air passenger growth may be only a bubble on the way to a new role for air transportation in the USA.

Comparing 2021 Planned Capacity To 2019… As of today, the airline industry has not yet fully adjusted the schedule patterns for July and August… plus, it is highly optimistic that September will remain at 8% more seats offered than in 2019.

Clouds On The Horizon. It is logical to accept that June will be in the @80% range of what was offered in 2019. July, too. However, it is really optimistic to project that air traffic volumes will exceed 2019 by the 4^th quarter.

First, business traffic most likely will see no rebound to the pre-CCP-Covid levels. How much it will rebound will depend on the fundamental changes in the basic foundation of business communication systems that have been experienced in the last 12 months.

Second, it is an open question regarding the drivers of the summer travel spike. It may be a bubble of demand, or it may be the indication that in the future leisure demand will be a larger percentage of revenue opportunities for the airline industry. That would indicate more vulnerability to economic shifts that affect disposable income and investment income.

Finally, air travel is entirely dependent on available dollars – both personal and business. That’s factor which apparently nobody wants to consider right now.

Planed Economic Policies Are Not Encouraging. Let’s state the facts: The economic view from 30,000 feet up isn’t real encouraging. Virtually every economic policy coming out of Washington is based on wealth reduction (taxes) or wealth suppression (social experiments that deter free and open discussion of issues and are openly aimed at reduction in commerce.)  Then there are open trendy attacks on supply of fuel – prohibiting exploration and closing pipeline projects will only make travel – and the cost of living – more expensive.

This stuff does not encourage travel spending – particularly when higher taxes will ultimately eat up discretionary spending – regardless of usual political promises to the contrary.

It is understood that these conclusions might be politically incorrect, but it’s what’s on the table and it is clear and obvious.

The next four weeks will be very interesting – if bookings remain strong for post-Labor Day travel that will determine how rapidly we will attain “full” enplanements – this being air passenger traffic that the new economy will support.

Stay tuned.

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Another Sacred Tome Questioned

There is an increasing number of political and social areas that unfortunately are being relegated to the “not to be questioned” category, for fear of being pilloried or burned at the stake of consensus thinking.

There are things we mere mortals must not question for fear of being publicly exposed as a socially dangerous heretic.

In the early 1950s, “everybody knew” that atomic power and nuclear energy would deliver incredible economic benefits… nearly free electrical power… nearly free heat in cold regions… all sorts of magic. It was the dogma.

It even extended to official and nonsensical malarkey regarding the ease avoiding the dangers in the event of nuclear attack. Folks who attended grade school in the 1950s can remember “duck and cover” exercises in the classroom. Simple. If you see a nuclear flash, kids, just duck under your desk. And, if you’re outside, just cover yourself with anything – even a newspaper – to be safe.

Not kidding. The government actually produced cutesy public service announcement films about this stuff. Atomic power was the unquestioned future, and indeed a copy of the financial section of the New York Times was sufficient to ward off being turned into a crispy critter if the Commies attacked.

‘Course, in the case of a real nuclear attack this would likely delay your journey to the Pearly Gates by at least two to three milliseconds.

Today, we still have a range of sacred dogmas that are not to be questioned. Those who do so are immediately and confidently attacked as “non-believers” or worse. The masses are tacitly instructed to do so, automatically.

Okay. We’ve now stepped over the line, and possibly stepped into a pile of accepted dogma.

Last week’s Aviation Unscripted has dared to discuss the concept of “sustainability” in regard to at least one accepted “green” approach to the future. The reality is that some of the accepted “green” alternatives are anything but – and are socially damaging.

We included this in our last Touch & Go, so if you missed it there click here to take a factual gander at one “accepted” green solution that is anything but.

If you haven’t viewed it, click here. 

Leadership means questioning the norm. That’s not what’s going on with a lot of “sustainability” assumptions.

The Magic 18 Inches of Health Protection

Never has seat 21E had the importance and health benefits it does today. It’s a middle seat, and the shamans in Washington are hyping it like they just discovered radium.

Last week, the Center For Disease Control (CDC) issued a new study, urging airlines to block middle seats to stop the potential spread of the CCP-Covid virus in airplane cabins.

Impressively, the CDC noted that this move could reduce the risk by over 50%. Wonderful  advice, particularly since there has been essentially zip evidence of CCP-Covid spread in  airplane cabins.

Naturally, however, the media took this CDC study and  ran with it like Zeus himself had just delivered it by express lightning bolt.

Nobody seemed to question the CDC’s conclusions. One major network radio outlet was furious that we dared suggest that the CDC was claiming to reduce something that’s been shown not to be a risk in the first place. Don’t want to hear that… truth doesn’t matter to certain parts of the media when it might shed light on bureaucratic political correctness.

This is just another in a long line of wanderings by the CDC. It is reprehensible in that it implies that there is a very real and present threat in airplane cabins – one that has been proven not to exist.

Sure, that 18 inches of middle seat separation is great protection – especially after passengers crawl over each other when one needs to get to the window seat and are next to each other stuffing things into the overhead.

This CDC magnum opus isn’t science. But it is consistent with a lot of the political Kabuki theater that has attached itself to the bureaucratic Washington response to the CCP-Covid pandemic like barnacles on a tramp steamship.

Back in February a year ago, we were assured by the various “experts” and pandering politicians that it was okay to take a cruise, or go to a movie, or participate in group activities… even though it was clear that the CCP-Covid was spreading rapidly in China, Europe or elsewhere. We were advised back then that wearing a mask was not needed or even  advisable.

Now the very same sources are prancing around, telling us that we should wear not one but two masks for safety. The media buys into that as obediently as they have this latest CDC dictum.

Nobody in the media asks what the specs for the “masks” need to be. Two N95s? Two plastic hoods? Two paper masks imported from factories run by  the same criminal government  who started this pandemic?  Two soiled  hankies?

Yup, all of the above are equally fine. It’s “science,” don’t ya know. Not to be questioned.

If looked at honestly and without the pandering political correctness much of the media worships, this stuff fails to meet the standards of a half-naked witch doctor in some far-off jungle.

See, this is more about proving obedience to the “authorities” than health. Sort of like a religious requirement to  cover one’s face to show subservience.

The latest CDC “study” is more of the same.

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The “Infrastructure” Bill:

Airport & Aviation In The Long-Term Crosshairs

France has just passed a law prohibiting air service between any two points where rail service is less than 2.5 hours. Germany is on the same path.

See, it’s all about reducing carbon emissions… regardless of other issues, or even the economic fallout that may result. Or even if it will make any real difference. It’s part of the sacred environmental scripture… air travel is evil. Choo-choo trains love the environment and will protect the polar bears and snake-darters and endangered lizard species in the Amazon rain forest.

Back home, there are clowns inside the Marble Playpen in Washington that are likely looking at trying to do the same in the USA… environmental jihadists who need no facts or truth to spoil their dogma.

Only problem is that the USA does not have any such rail system.

Yet.

But they’re fixin’ to do something about that little problem.

We touched on this last week. But it’s important that every sector of the aviation industry be fully aware that this “infrastructure” bill leaves airports out in the cold. And could be the start on the path of bureaucrats dictating how we must travel in the future.

Now, to be clear, this legislation has about as much to do with infrastructure as Karl Marx had with the Vatican Council. But it is obvious that airports and aviation are not at the table in this pork-fest.

In the current Aviation Unscripted video, we discuss how the bill will slobber tax money all over building trendy new “high-speed” passenger rail across the nation. It’s trendy. It’s environmentally superior. (A lie, but truth isn’t a factor in the dogma.)

This is more than just constructing rail beds. It’s part of a long-term plan to hamstring commerce based on crackpot but politically-accepted transportation planning.

Click here. It is critical that everyone in aviation be able to discuss this matter factually.

It does affect the future of our airport system – and the national economy.

Traffic Forecast – Continued Strength
But 2019 Passenger Levels A Long Way Off

The latest Airports:USA® long-term forecast indicates just under 620 million enplanements for 2021.

Based on known and expected airline capacity and fleet trends, the latest Airports:USA® forecasts indicate 2021 on track for just under 620 million enplanements.

This tracks with current rates of screening reported by the TSA, which has been in the 1 million to 1.5 million level each day.

Currently, the average passenger journey generates 1.4 enplanements, which is the result of connecting itineraries. This then would indicate that the 620 million enplanement figure is on target.

The challenge is that this figure is well short of the 960 million experienced in 2019, and even further short of what was expected, pre-CCP Covid, for 2021. Based on the forecasts and traffic trends expected, year 2021 was projected by Airports:USA to be approximately 1.15 billion enplanements.

That means we are looking at a very different air transportation picture, and one that represents a much-reduced set of revenue streams for all sectors of the aviation industry. The planning that was in place in March of 2020 has in many aspects been made obsolete.

Obviously, the picture is mixed. Some regions are in line for very strong enplanement growth, based on the airline industry adjusting to the new consumer and business base.
What needs to be grasped is that there is no “rebound” – the reality is that we are experiencing traffic adjusting to the fact that air transportation as a communication modality is changing, both in regard to leisure and business applications.

How this will manifest is based on very different consumer and economic drivers than the ones in place in 2019. Understanding these emerging dynamics will be critical to revising airport Master Plans and revenue projections.

Airports:USA® is the only independent source of traffic and trend forecasts for the industry. Updated constantly, it provides clients with the insights and perspectives that illuminate how air transportation will evolve in the future.

Log on to www.AirportsUSA.com and then give us a call and we can set up a quick demo of how we can give you a clear planning tool for the future.
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In This Week’s Aviation Unscripted Video
Another Pandemic – An Economic Pandemic – May Be Coming

Not to be a Kassandra, but we may be in for another set of economic torpedoes later this year… maybe sooner.

Be sure to join us this Thursday, April 8, for the latest Aviation Unscripted video, published on that channel on Rumble.com. We have some very sobering insight regarding some possibly near-term shenanigans on the part of the un-elected hoodlum system running China.

Understanding the events and geo-political issues that are unfolding in other areas of the globe is essential to contingency planning. This is one contingency that might land in our laps and put air traffic and the economy back on the skids.

The CCP-Covid pandemic was a health-related scourge that was inflicted first on the Chinese people and shortly thereafter on the entire world.

Unfortunately, the mobsters running China may be in line to do a repeat, but this time it will be an economic pandemic.

Political trends in China are very dangerous. Various factions are going to the mattresses in power struggles regarding the current leader, Xi Jinping. It is just like the mafia on a huge scale… they are all members, but the infighting between “families” portends danger for the entire globe.

Dictators in trouble tend to take actions that are aimed at rallying the citizens and neutralizing opposition from political enemies. In this case, what Xi Jinping may pursue will do to the global economy what his incompetent handling of the Covid virus did to global health.

To access the Aviation Unscripted video channel, click here… and be sure to log on this Thursday and get the facts. Things could change very quickly in the months ahead.

Here’s one hint. Taiwan.