The Magic 18 Inches of Health Protection

Never has seat 21E had the importance and health benefits it does today. It’s a middle seat, and the shamans in Washington are hyping it like they just discovered radium.

Last week, the Center For Disease Control (CDC) issued a new study, urging airlines to block middle seats to stop the potential spread of the CCP-Covid virus in airplane cabins.

Impressively, the CDC noted that this move could reduce the risk by over 50%. Wonderful  advice, particularly since there has been essentially zip evidence of CCP-Covid spread in  airplane cabins.

Naturally, however, the media took this CDC study and  ran with it like Zeus himself had just delivered it by express lightning bolt.

Nobody seemed to question the CDC’s conclusions. One major network radio outlet was furious that we dared suggest that the CDC was claiming to reduce something that’s been shown not to be a risk in the first place. Don’t want to hear that… truth doesn’t matter to certain parts of the media when it might shed light on bureaucratic political correctness.

This is just another in a long line of wanderings by the CDC. It is reprehensible in that it implies that there is a very real and present threat in airplane cabins – one that has been proven not to exist.

Sure, that 18 inches of middle seat separation is great protection – especially after passengers crawl over each other when one needs to get to the window seat and are next to each other stuffing things into the overhead.

This CDC magnum opus isn’t science. But it is consistent with a lot of the political Kabuki theater that has attached itself to the bureaucratic Washington response to the CCP-Covid pandemic like barnacles on a tramp steamship.

Back in February a year ago, we were assured by the various “experts” and pandering politicians that it was okay to take a cruise, or go to a movie, or participate in group activities… even though it was clear that the CCP-Covid was spreading rapidly in China, Europe or elsewhere. We were advised back then that wearing a mask was not needed or even  advisable.

Now the very same sources are prancing around, telling us that we should wear not one but two masks for safety. The media buys into that as obediently as they have this latest CDC dictum.

Nobody in the media asks what the specs for the “masks” need to be. Two N95s? Two plastic hoods? Two paper masks imported from factories run by  the same criminal government  who started this pandemic?  Two soiled  hankies?

Yup, all of the above are equally fine. It’s “science,” don’t ya know. Not to be questioned.

If looked at honestly and without the pandering political correctness much of the media worships, this stuff fails to meet the standards of a half-naked witch doctor in some far-off jungle.

See, this is more about proving obedience to the “authorities” than health. Sort of like a religious requirement to  cover one’s face to show subservience.

The latest CDC “study” is more of the same.

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The “Infrastructure” Bill:

Airport & Aviation In The Long-Term Crosshairs

France has just passed a law prohibiting air service between any two points where rail service is less than 2.5 hours. Germany is on the same path.

See, it’s all about reducing carbon emissions… regardless of other issues, or even the economic fallout that may result. Or even if it will make any real difference. It’s part of the sacred environmental scripture… air travel is evil. Choo-choo trains love the environment and will protect the polar bears and snake-darters and endangered lizard species in the Amazon rain forest.

Back home, there are clowns inside the Marble Playpen in Washington that are likely looking at trying to do the same in the USA… environmental jihadists who need no facts or truth to spoil their dogma.

Only problem is that the USA does not have any such rail system.

Yet.

But they’re fixin’ to do something about that little problem.

We touched on this last week. But it’s important that every sector of the aviation industry be fully aware that this “infrastructure” bill leaves airports out in the cold. And could be the start on the path of bureaucrats dictating how we must travel in the future.

Now, to be clear, this legislation has about as much to do with infrastructure as Karl Marx had with the Vatican Council. But it is obvious that airports and aviation are not at the table in this pork-fest.

In the current Aviation Unscripted video, we discuss how the bill will slobber tax money all over building trendy new “high-speed” passenger rail across the nation. It’s trendy. It’s environmentally superior. (A lie, but truth isn’t a factor in the dogma.)

This is more than just constructing rail beds. It’s part of a long-term plan to hamstring commerce based on crackpot but politically-accepted transportation planning.

Click here. It is critical that everyone in aviation be able to discuss this matter factually.

It does affect the future of our airport system – and the national economy.

Traffic Forecast – Continued Strength
But 2019 Passenger Levels A Long Way Off

The latest Airports:USA® long-term forecast indicates just under 620 million enplanements for 2021.

Based on known and expected airline capacity and fleet trends, the latest Airports:USA® forecasts indicate 2021 on track for just under 620 million enplanements.

This tracks with current rates of screening reported by the TSA, which has been in the 1 million to 1.5 million level each day.

Currently, the average passenger journey generates 1.4 enplanements, which is the result of connecting itineraries. This then would indicate that the 620 million enplanement figure is on target.

The challenge is that this figure is well short of the 960 million experienced in 2019, and even further short of what was expected, pre-CCP Covid, for 2021. Based on the forecasts and traffic trends expected, year 2021 was projected by Airports:USA to be approximately 1.15 billion enplanements.

That means we are looking at a very different air transportation picture, and one that represents a much-reduced set of revenue streams for all sectors of the aviation industry. The planning that was in place in March of 2020 has in many aspects been made obsolete.

Obviously, the picture is mixed. Some regions are in line for very strong enplanement growth, based on the airline industry adjusting to the new consumer and business base.
What needs to be grasped is that there is no “rebound” – the reality is that we are experiencing traffic adjusting to the fact that air transportation as a communication modality is changing, both in regard to leisure and business applications.

How this will manifest is based on very different consumer and economic drivers than the ones in place in 2019. Understanding these emerging dynamics will be critical to revising airport Master Plans and revenue projections.

Airports:USA® is the only independent source of traffic and trend forecasts for the industry. Updated constantly, it provides clients with the insights and perspectives that illuminate how air transportation will evolve in the future.

Log on to www.AirportsUSA.com and then give us a call and we can set up a quick demo of how we can give you a clear planning tool for the future.
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In This Week’s Aviation Unscripted Video
Another Pandemic – An Economic Pandemic – May Be Coming

Not to be a Kassandra, but we may be in for another set of economic torpedoes later this year… maybe sooner.

Be sure to join us this Thursday, April 8, for the latest Aviation Unscripted video, published on that channel on Rumble.com. We have some very sobering insight regarding some possibly near-term shenanigans on the part of the un-elected hoodlum system running China.

Understanding the events and geo-political issues that are unfolding in other areas of the globe is essential to contingency planning. This is one contingency that might land in our laps and put air traffic and the economy back on the skids.

The CCP-Covid pandemic was a health-related scourge that was inflicted first on the Chinese people and shortly thereafter on the entire world.

Unfortunately, the mobsters running China may be in line to do a repeat, but this time it will be an economic pandemic.

Political trends in China are very dangerous. Various factions are going to the mattresses in power struggles regarding the current leader, Xi Jinping. It is just like the mafia on a huge scale… they are all members, but the infighting between “families” portends danger for the entire globe.

Dictators in trouble tend to take actions that are aimed at rallying the citizens and neutralizing opposition from political enemies. In this case, what Xi Jinping may pursue will do to the global economy what his incompetent handling of the Covid virus did to global health.

To access the Aviation Unscripted video channel, click here… and be sure to log on this Thursday and get the facts. Things could change very quickly in the months ahead.

Here’s one hint. Taiwan.

Recovery In The US Airline Industry – Selectively

Last week,based on data from our friends at Cirium, U.S. air carriers slashed another almost 30% out of the already-filed April schedules… May has just started to get the knife.

Nevertheless, traffic is growing slowly, but based on entirely different air travel dynamics. US carriers are moving toward being cash-positive. But the fact remains that the air transportation system will be smaller. The fact also remains that international traffic is going to continue to to be constricted, which will drive additional changes in airline fleets and long-term strategies.

The open question is fleet decisions. We are seeing indications that network carriers are moving to the middle… smaller narrow-body units. One indication was United bringing in a used 737-700, and American/Envoy leasing in some used E170s.

Meanwhile, a number of airports across the country are getting pleasant surprises, with major carriers unilaterally adding additional hub-spokes as well as some probably-experimental point-to-point flying.

ULCCs – the “parallel” air transportation system is going to larger units of single-aisle capacity. Frontier is retiring A319s and adding A321s, including  at last look a number of A321XLR units.

The Airports:USA forecast is still indicating year 2019 traffic levels to return by 2024 nationally. Within that, as we’ve outlined in recent Insights, there will be at least two dozen US airports that will exceed 2019 enplanements by the end of this year.

More data in this week’s Touch & Go newsletter for our clients and friends.

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In This Week’s Aviation Unscripted…

“Try new approaches. If they don’t work,  fail fast and move on…”

That was the message from United Airlines at the 25th International Aviation Forecast Summit last October. It’s the absolute right  recipe to get through these uncharted times.

In the new air transportation systems and changes in consumer patterns, airlines have to move fast and flexibly in planning the future. They are doing just that, which means that there are no hard and fast rules. Things change overnight as carriers strategize out of the damage done by the CCP pandemic.

Traditionally, airport enplanement forecasts were static document updated every year or so. The air transportation industry was stable – no across-the-industry disruptions.

That’s no longer the case. As airports have found, air service trends are changing daily. Capacity levels, schedule patterns, fleet applications, and even new service entry can come as a surprise.

This means that traffic forecasting needs to be a live, constantly updated document. One airline expansion or deleting can change everything.

We cover this in the latest Unscripted… it’s a short view, but has some points important to maximizing the future.

Log on and join your colleagues. We are excited regarding the viewership on Rumble and other access points. We appreciate the support!

March 22 Insight To Be Posted Shortly!

The Traffic Picture – U.S. Positive. International Not So

The Main Concern – Changing Policies From The Economic Hobbyists In Washington

We can start with this: the U.S. airline industry is in better shape than any other in the world. One reason is that, aside from China, it is the only one that’s based on a huge domestic demand.

A recovery is starting to show… the capacity knife was used a lot less on the originally-filed schedules for March… as it stands, it appears that this may be the case with April and beyond.

The latest Airports:USA® short term forecast:

If the trend holds, if the economy holds, if new taxes are not imposed, if the increasing constriction on petro-production on the part of the inhabitants in Washington doesn’t jack the price of jet-A up, the traffic recovery will be quicker than estimated three months.  A lot of ifs.

The Welcome Signs Are Coming Up. A number of states have made the decision to completely or almost completely open up. The requirements to cover one’s nose and mouth – regardless with what (N95 or a used hankie are both regulatory-satisfactory), and regardless of where one is, or how effective it may be – are being lifted in several states.

This removes the barrier and uncertainty of traveling to major places such as Texas and Florida. Other states are still in a state of CCP-Covid confusion. Nevertheless, the picture is clearing.

That’s in the United States. Not so in the E.U. or the U.K. Latest news is that Italy may shut down, and it appears that guy with the run-away hairdo who’s running Merry Olde England is clueless. Canada is still constricted. Same with other parts of the globe.

A New U.S. Air Transportation System. New Airline Strategies. Amid all this, the restructuring of the U.S. air transportation system will continue. The main apparent trends are:

• Expansion of Leisure Destinations… Florida is the main recipient, but any flows that can be identified as having potential leisure stimulation are in play. Montana is another opportunity. The goal is to plumb into some of the money not spent over the last year.
• Major City – Secondary City O&D Market Spokes. Big markets such as Los Angeles can offer potential of stimulating day-of-week or low frequency service to mid-size airports that in pre-CCP-Covid days weren’t really opportunities. In regard to Los Angeles – and California in general – it will all depend on some regulatory consistency coming into the picture.
• Expansion of Hub Flows. American in particular is bulking up on accessing secondary airport flows, particularly at CLT. Great news for some regions… how fleet changes will affect this in the long term is uncertain.

The U.S. airline industry went into full metal jacket mode almost immediately upon the arrival of this gift from the CCP in Wuhan. It’s clear that every airline now has an aggressive and internally-generated strategy to deal with the effects of the pandemic and the sometimes herkie-jerk responses on the part of some state governors.

Meantime, Back In The Old Countries… The situation in the rest of the world is not encouraging. As noted above, Europe is completely in planning chaos. Australia is still restricted in regard to international access.

Asia is not only affected by the CCP virus, but by widespread and very uncertain political issues, mostly driven by the 21^st century Nazis running China. (The chief Don of this criminal enterprise has instructed his army to prepare for war. It may be more than the usual doggerel, based on infighting between factions in China. Think Kinmen or even Taiwan as “points of interest” in the next 12 months.)

The point is this… the main reason for the plunge in domestic air traffic in the USA was first fear of the disease, and then the uncertainty of whether entire cities might be shut down. Both of those factors are receding. Domestic traffic levels will rebound faster than recently forecasted.

But the emerging national and global air transportation systems are still structured for the world of 2019. That’s dead… the roles and utility of air travel have been shifted. Leisure, business and international travel patterns have changed and that means airlines are facing new fleet imperatives.

As noted last week, the era of the “regional jet” – defined as 70-seats and below – is over. The next big trend will be in the single aisle category, with A320neo, 737 MAX and A220 variants opening secondary airports to a much wider set of new market opportunities.

Danger Signs… Torpedoes Spotted. The only uncertainty is how the economic plans being ginned up by the inhabitants of the Marble Play Pen will slow all this down.

The indicators are not positive. Standby.

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In The Latest Aviation Unscripted Video…

The Realities of Establishing Air Service At Small Communities…
Time To Stop The Games

Getting scheduled flights into small unserved airports has been one of the most misunderstood – and abused – challenges in the realm of air service development schemes.

The problem is that there is the belief that unless a community has scheduled flights at the local airport, the economic future for that community is dead.  In most cases that is pure hogwash, and in any case often completely impossible.

What these ASD programs usually ignore is the consumer… civic hubris and another jive-time “Market Study” won’t replace superior air service  options.

We grab this third rail in the current Unscripted video,,, click here to join us as we explore reality.

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Follow Fleet Trends & See The Future

Where fleet trends go, passenger volume goes along.

Every part of aviation forecasting is driven by one core metric: the fleets that airlines actually order and operate.

The number and type of airliners being used, on order and to be retired are the harbingers of what can be expected not only in regard to passenger and cargo volumes, but in other areas such as component demand, the number and categories of ground and support equipment, airport facilities, overhaul hangar bay needs, technician numbers, and dozens more aviation sectors.

Airplane fleets and the emerging dynamics of same determine the rest of the future for aviation.

This is what sets Boyd Group International apart from other forecast entities. We do not rely on outdated metrics that have no connection to the real world. We’re at the forefront of the drivers of the aviation future. One of them is fleet forecasting. For us, this is an absolutely essential component of projecting the future.

Let’s Take A Quick Primer In Reading The Fleet-Driven Tea Leaves.

Last week, there were two apparently unrelated events regarding fleets. But, put together they are an important directional signal for air service planning.

Event One: Mesa Retires Last CRJ-700. The Phoenix-based carrier has parked its last CRJ-700s, and now operates only 76-seat CRJ-900s and E-175s, leased out to major airline customers. It is also bringing in an additional 737 for its cargo operations. But the days of flying turboprops and smaller jets are over.

Event Two: End of The CRJ Line. On March 2, Bombardier CRJ-900, S/N 15499 was delivered to SkyWest. This was the last CRJ to be produced. Done, finished. No More. Bombardier is out of the airliner business.

The first prototype CRJ-100 emerged in May of 1991. In total, 2,014 CRJs of all models were produced. Just over half are still flying, with the majority in North America. And that’s a number that’s going to head south fast in the next 36 months.

Two Different Stories. One Solid Message. These two events are critical to understanding the trajectory of air service planning in the USA. There are no more “small” airliners coming down the production line. Or even on the drawing board. That means airline fleet and mission capabilities will evolve.

CRJs and ERJs are fine airplanes, but as they age, they are going to be retired. It is basic aeronautical economic reality. A reality that cannot be ignored in future air service planning.

No Size Replacements Coming. The fact is that the  that the two main platforms that were produced – the Bombardier CRJ and Embraer ERJ – have their roots in political government planning, and not due to hard economic market realities. When the two companies were privatized, the massive developmental costs were “sunk” by the respective governments.

Unfortunately, there are no sugar-daddy governments around to support the clean-sheet planning cost for small capacity (and small revenue-producing)  airliners. The gelt needed would be not much less than for a new 150-seat airliner that would have more value and sell for a lot more per unit. Do the math.

Packaged Air Service Deals – Short Term Application of Excess Small Jets. Indeed in the near term, we may see new applications of RJs, in the form of “pre-designed route system” deals with some small lift lessors (a.k.a. “regional” airlines) with the intent of flying specific markets from a customer airport. Naturally, with local subsidies in the millions. But even here, it’s a short-term flicker. Aircraft age and costs are not to be denied.

Here’s the message: it won’t be the market “need,” or civic hubris, or ethically-challenged consultant “market studies” that will determine where and how air service will manifest at small communities. At baseline, where and how airlines will operate will be dependent on fleets that airlines operate.

And increasingly, it won’t be small jets. That’s a factor that is a starting point for any air service access program.

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In Other Airliner Demand News

While we’re on the subject of fleets…

Good News At Boeing: United’s 737-Max 10 order is back on the active books – 96 units.

Less Than Good News At Boeing: China’s regulators are “not sure” about the 737 Max returning to the skies over the Middle Kingdom. ‘Course they’re not sure… point is more likely that they don’t need them at the moment.

More Less-Than-Good-News At Boeing: The collapse of Norwegian has led to cancellation of an order for 92 Max-8s.

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A Note Regarding Aviation Unscripted Videos

If you haven’t viewed the latest Unscripted, click here – we’re discussing how business migrations will be shifting air service demand patterns.

Also, we’re planning on issuing a new Aviation Unscripted video every Thursday. It’s on Rumble.com by typing in “Aviation Unscripted” (naturally) in the Channel selector. We’re exploring issues not found anywhere else.

This Thursday, barring any episodic breaking aviation news, we’re taking on the new realities of small community air access challenges.

Log on & let’s talk!