The Seat Size Controversy… More Inaccurate Media Reporting

This past week there were a couple of stories on how some of the inhabitants of congress want to pressure the FAA into legislating seat dimensions.

To “fix” a problem requires having a knowledge of the problem. That’s not the case here.

There is no question that seat “pitch” – simply put, space between rows – has gotten much tighter in the last 20 years… particularly in the last five.

But that’s not the same as seat-width, which truth be known, has actually – on average – grown in the last 20 years in US skies.

Don’t Check The Source – Especially If It Agrees With The Reporter’s Pre-Conceived Conclusion. These articles are often embellished by the oh-so-righteous statement that seat-width has also shrunken from an average of 18.5 inches a few years ago (whenever that was) to an average of 17 inches today. The articles then attribute the source of this statistic to one consumer group or another…

Fake news lives. It’s a flat-out false statistic, at least for US airlines.

Here’s a fact to ponder…. In the US, the smallest seat width in economy cabins at US airlines is 17 inches. (This does not include any smattering left of air taxis or third-tier carriers flying very small aircraft.)

That’s the smallest, and in the US it is found only on categories of “regional” jets.

New Airliners Have Changed The Mix. Let’s take a look …despite what some media sources mis-report, the B-737/757 has exactly the same fuselage width as the first 707s that entered service in 1958.

The cross-cabin seat density in normal economy has always been six… so shrinking the width of the actual seat would gain nothing in regard to more passenger density. It’s been around 17.5 inches since 1958. So even if it were originally at 18.5 (which is bogus), there’s no way shrinking the width would deliver more capacity.

Most of the reporters who spread this inaccurate drivel have no clue of the subject matter.

In fact, there has been some increase in seat density on some widebody airliners, but none in US operation are less than 17 inches wide.

(For the record, airlines have tried different seating configurations… in the 1960s, United dabbled with a second economy cabin with 5 across, It didn’t survive.)

Actually, the average width of the US economy seat has grown in the past 20 years. The expansion of the A-320 family actually has increased average tush width in US economy cabins… they have an average of 18 inches. The Embraer E-170/190 airliners have seats at approximately 18.2, and the new CSeries coming on line at Delta will have some seats at 19.

So here’s the bottom line… since the narrowest seats in US fleets are at 17 – and these are just on smaller “regional” jets – and virtually all other narrow-body airliners in US skies are above that, it doesn’t take an advanced degree in fractal geometry to conclude that the “average” today simply cannot be 17 inches.  The pandering consumer groups and the reporters who blindly rely on them have a credibility problem.

Simply put, the consumer gadfly organizations and their media groupies are passing out bad information. One wonders about the accuracy of the rest of their reporting. The congressional inhabitants who might repeat this garbage are in the same category.

So, the folks that are reporting a decline in average seat width – particularly in narrow-body US fleets – need to do some homework. Or find another profession.

Again, this is not to imply that seat pitch hasn’t declined.  It has.

But the story demands facts, not innuendo.

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BGI Delivers China Symposium At Raleigh-Durham

The Boyd Group International/China Ni Hao professionals were honored to be teamed with the Raleigh-Durham International Airport to deliver a comprehensive Symposium to North Carolina industry, civic, and government leaders, outlining the opportunities for China air service.

With the enormous Chinese business investment in the region, including Lenovo, Tencent, Smithfield Foods, and Triangle Tires, the North Carolina Research Triangle supports over 160,000 annual air travelers from China, according to BGI’s Airports:China forecasts.

The objective of the Symposium was to illuminate the realities of gaining nonstop access to China, which today does not yet have a fully-developed hub-and-spoke system that compares to that in the US. Indeed, today, the largest single airline operation is the China Southern system in Guangzhou, which is in southern China. It has @ 350 daily flights… compare that to some US connecting hubs, with between 600 and 900 departures.  This will evolve in the years ahead.

In the meantime, there’s lots of aggressive planning and outreach that needs to be pursued by US regions and airports to meet the China future.

At the event, BGI staff outlined the future evolution of the Chinese airline industry as it will affect RDU, as well as key data regarding where the communities of business interests will develop between North Carolina and China in the coming years. BGI is the leader in China-US air traffic and trend data,

We were honored to work with the team at RDU to deliver this program.

The China Era Is Here – And It’s An Opportunity for Regions Across America.

We would note that Boyd Group International and its team of China experts stand ready to assist communities and airports in developing aggressive China-Welcome programs.

Welcome & Wayfinding Programs – Chinese leisure and business visitors will prefer and gravitate to locations that make an effort to welcome them with basic but professional materials such as key communication touch-point signage, and making certain parts of the venue fully China-Welcome…

Professionally-Created Chinese Support Materials. BGI can craft a tailored program for any venue to assure that Chinese visitors – particularly business visitors – have the materials and informational guidance they need to have an anxiety-free visit, and to know that their hosts respect their business…

Local China-Welcome Outreach. If you are relying on machine-translated versions of your website and promotional documents, delete them immediately! They are usually very sloppy, inaccurate and in some cases offensive. Let BGI’s experts develop and create the message professionally…

Digital Outreach. BGI’s team has established WeChat, Baidu and other digital programs for US companies and organizations. We can literally put your airport or community in the pockets of millions of Chinese consumers…

China-Welcome Programs. Just as at the North Carolina Research Triangle, BGI can deliver incisive and informative programs on-site, designed to inform and fire-up the region to become more competitive for the billions in China-US investment and the more than 23 million Chinese leisure visitors expected to see the US over the next five years.

Point: If your region is interested in looking to the China future, we’re ready.

January 2, 2018 Update

Happy New Year!

Let’s Look at 2018 – Beyond The Consensus

The 2018 Boyd Group International Aviation Trend Outlook is now available.

In the document, we cover several areas where evolutionary and episodic change can be expected in the coming year and beyond.

Prepare For Some New Futurist Concepts. Boyd Group International has a track record of forecasting trends that are missed by other sources. The reason is simple: we do not accept at face value the “consensus” or what may be described as “ambient thinking.”

Those terms are just alternative descriptions of making sure that there are no risks taken and there’s no potential of challenging the entrenched thinking of the status-quo.

For more than three decades, Boyd Group International has built a track record of assisting clients from across aviation and across the globe in identifying new future opportunities. In doing so, we don’t go by the book. We write the future book, which is what we’ve done with this year’s Outlook.

Below are just a few basic subject synopses of the 2018 predictions and trend projections in this year’s BGI Aviation Trend Outlook. To view and download the complete document, just click here, and we’ll get it to you ASAP.

If you have any questions or input regarding this document, please let us know.

And, of course, if you need futurist aviation research, forecasting or consulting, we stand ready to assist. We would point out that many of the trends outlined herein are indicative of the scope and structure that will be delivered at the 23^rdInternational Aviation Forecast Summit, August 19-23, 2018, hosted by Denver International Airport.

CEOs and senior executives from across the industry and across the globe will be here to openly discuss the future. No boring “panels.” Instead, direct discussion and exploration of the future from those who are shaping it.

To reserve your space and for more information: www.AviationForecastSummit.com Special New Year registration rates are now offered.

2018: Looking To A Strong, But Global 2018

Touching Briefly On Just Some of What’s Covered In the 2018 Aviation Trend Outlook…

Traffic Trend: Fundamental Growth… Plus More Impulse-Buy Capacity

Let’s put it on the line.

The hand-wringing from some in the financial world about airlines adding too much capacity in 2018 is strictly Chicken Little. Capacity discipline is firmly in control.

Look For @ 4% More Seats, But Less Than 3.5% More Flying. As of January 1, US carriers are scheduling a 3.9% increase in capacity for the first six months, compared to the same time period in 2017. Most of the reporting on this implies that carriers are simply adding flights on top of existing ones.

In some cases that is accurate, based on very high load factors, and particularly in cases where the carriers’ connecting hubs experience “hub-choke” – when there is demand for more feed through the hub, but the connecting banks to major destinations are functionally fully-booked.

But in other cases, much of the increase in capacity is based on network carriers (American, Delta, United and Southwest) adding new markets – particularly trans-border and international.

Also adding to the capacity picture is the expansion of the “parallel airline universe” – ULCCs expanding and offering fares that transcend ambient market “demand” and establish the travel product as an alternative application of discretionary dollars.

Wildcard: In any case, the recent reduction in the corporate tax rate, could result in carriers adding more capacity to meet newly-generated demand in the fourth quarter of 2018.

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2018 Trend: Hub-Choke Increasingly To Affect Route Planning

For airlines, experiencing very high load factors in key major markets to and from the carrier’s hubsite operations are generally positive.

However, this dynamic also represents some traffic spill – where consumers in, say, Abilene find it difficult to find space on the connecting flights from DFW. In some cases, carriers will use sophisticated analytical systems to build highest and best use scheduling – in effect weeding out feed markets that are the least revenue-productive for limited hub capacity. Expect more of this in the coming year.

Enter New Fleets:  With the phase out of what turboprops are left at American and United, and upgrade to increasingly cost-inefficient but larger 50-seat jets, more planning pressure will be but on network carriers to again review which small-airport routes  make the most sense in light of the major routes to which they feed being at or near functional capacity.

Now add in the new dynamic of AA, DL and UA creating new “basic fare” buckets, which are applied mainly to retain and attract more nonstop O&D traffic in key major (read:  nonstop hub) markets. This will further put a strain on the availability of capacity for smaller communities that depend on connect access at the hubsite.

The result is that, in many small-community feed markets, a load factor of 65% to the airline’s hubsite is functionally a “full” flight. There simply are no more seats available through the connecting hub.

This will continue to be an issue for smaller communities dependent on air access through a fully-booked hubsite operation. In many cases, these airports will be more than able to support the additional capacity to the connecting hub. Some, however, may be facing a potential pull-down in service.

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2018 Trend: Small Community Air Access: Fantasy Is No Longer An Option

Many small communities need to come to grips with the three major and largely irreversible trends that are shaping air access from the globe.

• Hub-Choke. This we cover above, but what should not be ignored is that there is often no alternative airline to enter the a small community from an additional connecting hub. For example, when the distance to the UA/IAH hubsite represents more cost and more airplane time than the revenues that the market can generate, no amount of “market studies” will create more airlines or change economic realities. This is a reality that many smaller communities face.
• Eclipsing Costs. The emerging “floor” for feed fleets to network systems is the 50-seat jet. It is being retired – slowly, now that fuel costs are where they are – but they do represent a higher revenue bar for communities to meet.
• Consumer Preferences & Alternatives. Increasingly, within the emerging economics of airline operations, the type of scheduled air service that some smaller communities can support at the local airport is DOA. That’s because in many cases such service is consumer-inferior, less time-efficient, and actually less convenient than an hour’s drive (or even in some cases, even a 90-minute) drive to an alternative airport where the population (or an airline’s connecting hub) can support much wider flight access. This is another dynamic that no amount to civic hubris or more expensive and misleading “studies” will change. Regionalization of air access is an emerging reality in some parts of the US. It should be recognized and embraced, because the air transportation system isn’t returning to the 1980s.

That’s because in many cases such service  is consumer-inferior, less time-efficient, and actually less convenient than an hour’s drive (or even as we note in the Outlook in some cases, even a 90-minute drive) to an alternative airport where the population (or an airline’s connecting hub) can support much wider flight access.

In the Outlook we discuss how regionalization of air access is an emerging reality in some parts of the US. It should be recognized and embraced, because the air transportation system isn’t returning to the 1980s.

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2018 Trend: More EU Nonstops From The Heartland

A major dynamic discussed in the Outlook is the value that major non-hubsite US airports now represent to foreign carriers.

As was first outlined at the 2013 International Aviation Forecast Summit, key non-hubsite major US airports are prime candidates for EU carriers to add to their global systems.

For network carrier system such as British, Air France and Lufthansa, the traffic feed to their hubs in Europe from large US cities such as New Orleans, Indianapolis, Nashville, etc., can be very attractive.

The key factors for this service are generally, 1) a strong local population base, 2) very strong installed base of internationally-focused industry, and 3) – most important – strong highway network access from a wide population region.

This latter factor is important, as a nonstop London flight from, for example, New Orleans, is more convenient for folks to drive to from Gulfport, compared to the complexity of making a flight connection over IAH or ATL. This trend then tends to increase the profile of the larger airport as an alternative access point.

In addition, the massive expansion of impulse service to the Continent by WOW and Norwegian will open even more access. In these cases, however, the US point will be more of a destination, as opposed to a generator of feed traffic.

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Potential Trend: China Moving To Acquire Foreign Aircraft Manufacturers

In the Outlook, we step into uncharted territory by looking at the Chinese airliner industry, and making some bottom line projections on strategic planning that may be coming from the folks in Beijing in 2018.

What this means is that Boyd Group International research in the China aviation market indicates that we may see very significant and elsewhere-unforecasted moves by China to expand its global presence in the aircraft manufacturing sector.

In particular, there is a very real potential for Chinese entities to make a move to acquire either Bombardier or, more likely, Embraer. We believe the recent Boeing outreach to Embraer is at least partially a pre-emptive move.

Point: China is intent on becoming a major player in the airliner sector. Its current indigenous platforms are not going to be able to accomplish this. Therefore, an acquisition of Embraer or Bombardier (or, possibly another player we won’t mention right now) is not out of the question.

The potential shifts in relationships this could drive among suppliers, and the impact on the commercial direction of the US airframe and powerplant sectors would be very far-reaching in broadening the presence of Chinese business in America.

Getting Ready For China Can Make The Difference In Site-Selection. Moving on in that area, BGI predicts that more US airports and venues will need to become more welcoming to the Chinese leisure and business visitor.  To be sure, just about every US gateway airport claims it is ready for these travelers… but in most cases, Mars has better wayfinding and welcome than US facilities.

It goes beyond having a Mandarin speaker on-site, and it goes beyond veneer things like not offering ice water in restaurants. In regard to China communication, we also point out that the poor misled airports that have been sold an “international translation” website feature that includes Chinese, are simply making themselves look really amateur and silly to the Chinese consumer. The raw machine translations are insulting and tell the web visitor that the airport/community is out to lunch when it comes to professional outreach.

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Fuel & Labor Issues

It is understandable for financial analysts to be concerned regarding the potential effects of changes in these two key cost factors on airline bottom lines,

From a rational perspective, these are important to watch, and it is near-certain that in the next 18 months, labor costs will impact the bottom line at a number of carriers. However, given the expected robust demand, there are no thunderstorms on the horizon for 2018.

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These just scratch the surface of what to expect in 2018…There’s a lot more to explore.

To view and download the complete 2018 Aviation Trend Outlook, just click here, and we’ll get it to you ASAP.