Keeping Up With Airline Fleet Trends

With the capture of the Bombardier CSeries platform by Airbus, it brings to a close over 50 years of consolidation in the global airliner business.

With only a few niche exceptions, from this point on airlines won’t have the bother of trying to figure out who to buy planes from. They will have two options – Airbus and Boeing.

In that light, it might be of interest to see what’s on the fleet horizon for the coming year

Airbus Looking At A-320 Follow-On. Airbus has reported the start of long-term research to develop a clean-sheet new narrow-body airliner platform to be a follow-on to the A-319/320 series.

Missed in these reports is that they just acquired such a project – the Bombardier CSeries, a platform that actually is a next-generation narrow-body – one with substantial stretch potential.

Message: Folks in Mobile may need to keep a close watch on the A-220 program, in regard to future production, which is planned in that city. It may not be as long-term as some may expect.

MD-90s… Delta is continuing to reduce its fleet of MD-90s, a portion of which were acquired over the last ten years from other carriers, based on the aircraft’s favorable price v performance ratio.

Now, with new 737s and A-320/321s coming on line, it’s off to Dr. Hacksaw’s sunny desert resort for the MD-90s. There are no airlines left on the globe looking for MD-90s. Actually, that’s where Delta got a lot of their current fleet – from other operators. A great airplane, but an orphan.

B-717s…Another McDonnell-Douglas market-timing misfire, the MD-95, nee the B-717, is also seeing the start of retirement.

The fleet of ex-AirTran B-717s that Delta acquired from Southwest are apparently facing a shorter half-life than might have been expected, as the carrier has started to pull them from service.

Because of the unique engine on the -717 and the relatively low number of operators, it’s likely the next role of the airplane will be in a Bud Light commercial.

A-319s… American & United have been adding A-319s from various sources. United from several carriers, and AA gaining units coming off lease at Frontier. Acquisition costs are very favorable to the point that when these units come up for a heavy C-check, a keep-or-retire decision can be made.

A-380s… Air France is reportedly ready to retire half of its fleet of 10 of these super-jumbos. We would point out that Boyd Group International was the only forecast/consulting firm that from the git-go of this project forecasted that the A-380 would be fortunate to sell 400 units. The current deliveries and orders combined are at 352. The rest of the consulting industry swooned over the plane, without doing a shred of research beyond repeating what “everybody knows.” One major financial periodical confidently reported that “all major airlines are ordering the A-380.”

DHC-8-400s… Write this down: there will be a growing demand for turboprops in the 30-70-seat category… it just won’t be in North America.. Alaska/Horizon has pulled another four Q-400s out of its fleet in the last few months.

The US airline industry has less than zero interest in bringing anything back that has a propeller. Not so in other regions of the world.

The Russian A-320-ski, The MC-21. A new Russian competitor for the A-320/B-737, they managed to get the second prototype out of the factory this spring– a full year after the first one. Not exactly an accelerated program.

But it’s a big seller among Russian financial institutions that otherwise will have no earthly place to put these machines, assuming the production line ever gets rolling.

Aside from some orders from Aeroflot (likely due to a bit of government shin-kicking) the only real interest outside of Mother Russia’s sphere of influence has been an airline in Peru that’s not even operating.

50-70 Seat Jets… The Fuel Gods Are Smiling. For Now. Ten years ago, $100+ oil prices had this segment heading into history. For the time being, however, oil in the under $80 range will slow the retirement of this segment.

But if we see prices much over $80 again, it will be a different story. A lot of newly-added feed markets in the AA/DL/UA systems will be dropped should it appear that the increases in jet-A are more than a temporary spike.

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Reminder

New Summary 2018 Report…

We’ve just made available our Summary report of the trends emerging as we come to the close of 2018.

There are some interesting takes… like, the potential for rural airports to emerge as part of a whole new logistical system, CLT developing into a China gateway, and mid-size non-hubsite airports seeing much more robust growth.

A short read, but take a look. Click Here.

Forecasts & Trend Analyses. While there, check out the analytical firepower of having access to the only individual US airport enplanement forecasts accomplished entirely in the private sector. Airports:USA is now on-line and it’s updated monthly to accommodate airline capacity and scheduling shifts.

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To Start This Week…

Yes, Internet Booking Is Here To Stay

“Delta, of course, has a hub at Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport…”

This was a new revelation – certainly to Delta – issued last week, from what is postured as a major media magazine for the travel agent industry.

The core of the article was lamenting that airlines are not turning to travel agencies to help sell seats, anymore.

There may be a reason, eh?

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The Amazon HQ2 Facilities At Queens & N. Virginia –

Massive New DCA/LGA Traffic?  Just More Fake News

There was a loud burbling sound coming from the shallow-end of the media gene pool this week…

“…As a result (of the Amazon decision to locate in the NYC and WAS area), local airports will likely have to boost manpower and bolster infrastructure to handle the influx of employees, their families, and increased business traffic.”

That’s the media’s confident din, aimed at the great unwashed, who they assume are too numb to ever question what’s above or beneath the fold.

Yessir, there’s going to be a tsunami of new airline passenger traffic generated by the decision by Amazon to locate facilities in Queens and in Northern Virginia, promising to bring an additional 25,000 jobs to each region.

Airport crowds will be tighter… traffic more congested, and those security lines will be longer and more stressful, some in the media are warning us.

Taking it to the intended impression, LGA and DCA will look like the fall of Saigon on a daily basis, unless the powers-that-be get crackin’ right now to build more facilities and hire more people.

Yup. Amazon is coming to Queens and Northern Virginia… to hear the amateur and embarrassingly ignorant babble in some of the stories, it’s the air traffic equivalent of the Normandy invasion.

“… With security lines a notorious bottleneck at airports around the country, the potential for HQ2-related congestion has long been on the Transportation Security Administration’s radar.

Really? Notorious bottlenecks around the country? And – just a question – why would a business decision by just one company – Amazon – be on the TSA’s “radar?”

HQ2-related congestion? At airports?

Monkey Media Hear, Monkey Media Report. It begs the question and illuminates the answer… do some people in the media ever try to verify stuff they hear from each other? These types of stories certainly can’t be from any intelligent effort to check facts.

It’s “terrarium reporting” – where the data and facts are churned in a sealed atmosphere, free of contamination by any pesky outside input, and then proffered as professional insight.

Actually, they’re talking as if this new Amazon facility is going into Grand Island, or Yakama or Yuma. It’s not… did they bother to check out any data whatsoever? Like populations, traffic data, employment base, application sources?

Answer: nope.

Message to the fourth estate… try to spend at least five minutes to make sure your stuff is at least within a galaxy or so of factual.

Okay, A Little Data To Rain On The Hype Parade. Here are some numbers.

Queens, where the Amazon facility is planned, has a population of 2.4 million. The Amazon announcements are for 50,000 new jobs, split between there and Virginia. That’s 25,000 in Queens.

Point: Do The Math – if every single new Amazon job were performed by a new resident to Queens, that would mean a population increase of just over one percent. But most of these positions will likely be filled by locals, not new residents.

Some will be from Queens, some from other Buroughs, and some from Long Island and elsewhere in the region. But most won’t be arriving in moving vans.

So, media guys, what about all that new infrastructure you predict will be necessary…?

Point: Do The Math – In 2018, LaGuardia Airport is forecast by Airports:USA® to handle 30.8 million passengers, total including both in and out.

Now let’s assume that each employee at this new Amazon facility of 25,000 will generate 3 net-new additional air trips a year (wildly high, as will be explained below) and they’ll all use LGA, eschewing the drive down the Van Wyck to JFK.

That would mean that LGA would be in for a whapping 0.49% increase in passengers, if they all showed up today, and if all of the 25,000 were employees migrating to the region, importing new travel demand,

But they are not. The media stories imply that there will be a fleet of Noah’s People Arks arriving along the East River, disgorging thousands of new residents into Long Island City, all heading to get jobs at Amazon, and hankerin’ to get on the ‘net and start booking air travel.

Not even close. These jobs are not all travel-focused, as some of the media seem to indicate.

Bottom Line: More Sloppy Media. These data are as immediately obvious as a Big Mac at a vegan pep-rally. But this is emblematic of a lot (not all, certainly) of the media coverage of the aviation industry.

The economic impact of Amazon will be positive, just has the investment made by other firms that have or may expand in the NYC or WAS regions.

But the drivel oozing out of some media sources regarding the choking effects it will have on LGA and DCA is one more indication that more and more, we’re on our own getting reliable facts.

New Summary 2018 Report…

We’ve just made available our Summary report of the trends emerging as we come to the close of 2018.

There are some interesting takes… like, the potential for rural airports to emerge as part of a whole new logistical system, CLT developing into a China gateway, and mid-size non-hubsite airports seeing much more robust growth.

A short read, but take a look. Click Here

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Forecast Update:

Going Beyond “True Market Analyses” & Into The Future.

Boyd Group International’s Airports:USA program is now producing comprehensive Forecast Trend & Market Analyses, designed to give airports a clear view of the future.

Instead of just digging up past data, the program discovers the dynamics that will shape an airport’s future. Factors such as changes in airline strategies, fleet shifts, capacity changes, emerging or declining choke at the airport’s gateway hubs. Expected changes at competing airports. And more. In short, a review and plan of what an airport will face in the coming years.

For more information and to request a detailed proposal, click here.

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It’s Now Complete:

The Consolidation of The Airliner Business

Last week it was announced that Bombardier has sold off its remaining turboprop airliner business.

Roughly three decades since they bought what was deHavilland Canada from Boeing, they’re quitting that sector of the industry.

Lock stock and barrel.

The Real Story: The Loss of The CSeries As A Competitor. That’s news, but it’s dwarfed in long term impact by the announcement of last summer, when Bombardier essentially turned over its CSeries jet program to Airbus.

That transaction, combined with the pending Boeing-Embraer partnership, signals the end of a consolidation in the airliner manufacturing business that began fifty years ago.

Back in the 1960s, global airlines had products from Convair, Douglas, Vickers, Dassault, British Aerospace, Lockheed, Sud-Aviation, and Boeing – all of which had full-size jet airliners on the market.

Today, we’re down to Airbus, Boeing and Embraer… and the latter two will soon be in a cooperative venture.

Despite some nonsense from analysts who are not particularly concerned with learning about the subject matter, the CSeries is a mainline airliner platform – not a “regional jet” (which itself is an obsolete term, anyway.)

The CSeries was a clear future competitor to the A-319/320 as well as the B-737. In fact, the decision to come out with the A-319/320 NEO series and the B-737MAX was clearly due to the threat of the CSeries, which was a major economic breakthrough airliner, and which likely has the stretch capability to 160 seats or more.

With the expected economics of the CSeries, it was in line to cause some serious market heartburn in corporate offices in Toulouse and Chicago.

The Delta order for the CSeries could have been the start.

Now, that potential competition is not going to happen.

Airbus will certainly market the former CSeries in its present form, but it’s not likely that they’ll do much to expand the program into larger variants that will compete with the A-319/320.

CRJ Nearing End of Run? In the commercial airliner segment, all Bombardier has left is the CRJ program. Still a strong order book, but it is pretty clear that the company isn’t too interested in pushing further into commercial airliners.

Just Airbus & Boeing… It is noted that Boeing and Embraer are in discussions to collaborate in airliner development in the future. With Bombardier’s CSeries out of the competition, and the E-170/190 platform clearly size-limited, it’s time to tumble to the reality that when it comes to jet airliners, the future is with two manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus.

Chinese Airliners? A Decade Late & A Couple of Yuan Short. Where might new competition come from in the future?

We can forget Russia. The experience with the Sukhoi Superjet hasn’t been real super. Reportedly, InterJet of Mexico had to take one off line to be a parts supply for the rest of the fleet. And a few years ago, Sukhoi flying a demonstrator into a mountain in Indonesia didn’t do much to polish the image of the machine.

The TU-204  “757-ski” has had zero success in the global market. Russian airliners are not in big demand – particularly from Russian airlines.

But China has an emerging airliner industry, so there will be the logical suggestions that China’s aerospace industry can jump in.

They certainly could – it they had a competitive, or more critically, a super competitive product. Which they don’t.

The ARJ-21, a relatively simple traditional 100-seat design with mostly off-the-shelf components, took years upon years to become market-ready. A nice aircraft, it offers zero advantages over anything produced by Boeing or Airbus or Embraer.

The C919, albeit a completely clean-sheet airplane, designed to compete with the -319/320 and the 737, offers nothing substantially better than the now-in-production Airbus and Boeing narrow-body airliners. It’s development is behind schedule, and now there’s an issue with needing cockpit modifications to meet FAA certification.

With this in mind, it’s unlikely any current non-China operator of Airbus or Boeing airliners would be willing or interested in going through the expense of introducing either of these machines into their fleets.

The huge costs of needing another parts inventory, new pilot and maintenance training, not to mention issues of global technical support, would only make sense if these Chinese airplanes offered material advantages in performance and cost. They don’t. So, their market reach will be captive Chinese airlines and a smattering of smaller airlines across the globe.

As for turboprops, China has the 60-seat MA-60 and slightly re-designed MA-600. Based on a Russian design, the MA-60 is such a dog that it’s pretty much only sold to cash-short airlines outside of China, and has an abominable operational record.

There’s the new, MA-700, which curiously resembles the ATR-72.  But it is years away from market entry.

Let’s not forget the planned Sino-Russian wide-body C929 that’s also a glimmer on the long term horizon. Or, maybe we should.

The reality is that if China is to become a global presence in the airliner field, it will need to develop – or acquire – airliner platforms that will represent breakthroughs in either performance or in mission applications.

China has emerged as a global thought-leader in several industries. Airliners are not one of them.

Other Fallout: Major Upheaval In Ontario. Just in passing, the Bombardier turboprop sale involves all of the intellectual rights to the deHavilland name, the support business for the global fleets of Dash-8 100/200/300/400s, plus the roughly 111 -400s on order.

The purchaser, Longview Capital, reportedly paid $300 million CAD – roughly the retail price of about 20 of the Q-400s still to be delivered. Earlier this year, Bombardier also quietly sold off its entire factory complex in Downsview.

It’s unclear whether Longview Capital will be engaged in further R&D on the -400. In any case, the product support business alone will be very lucrative by itself. Longview is the parent of Viking, which several years ago bought the production jigs and rights to build a next-generation 19-seat Twin Otter utility aircraft.

With this latest sale by Bombardier, 5,000 jobs will reportedly be eliminated. An enormous economic hit.

Canadians can look forward to some excitement in the next election in Ontario.

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Concorde: In Its Time, A Techno-Marvel…

So Was The Erie Canal, Except It Really Did Affect Travel

The fifteenth anniversary has just been marked of the retirement of the Concorde supersonic airliner.

There’s media commentary on how it supposedly was a breakthrough in air travel, and today, half a century from when it first rolled out, and depending on which side of the Luddite table some are on, it’s supposed to be a warning regarding the economic impossibility future supersonic air transportation.

This is galaxies from reality.

Concorde was just a one-off, and commercially is not anything that is of value in discussing the potential of supersonic air transportation today.

The Concorde Lesson Has Zero To Do With Technology. Amid the adulation about this airplane as a techno-wonder, let’s grab a contrarian but accurate third-rail. The lesson of Concorde should be viewed for what it really is: Aside from being a flashy airliner, it was a gigantic example of an incompetent boondoggle.

And, in point of fact, Concorde (in the UK, there’s no “the”) really had minimal impact on future air travel… it was mostly a small sidebar. A curiousity. A near non-sequitur.

This is not to say that the machine wasn’t an enormous technological achievement for its time. But it was still a poorly-planned, market-incompetent boondoggle.

Yes, great publicity and a really cool Buck Rogers profile, but 14 machines that eventually entered service did little to substantively change the fundamentals of air transportation. It just cost the taxpayers in England and France enough money to do a full re-enactment of the Napoleonic Wars. British Airways and Air France might have made money on them, but that’s due to the fact that neither airline paid anywhere near market price to get them.

Concorde, truth be known, set no new trends, and resulted in zero competitive responses to the three airlines (yes, three) that actually operated it.

Aside from the technical-wonder-for-its-time aspects, the real message and real example of Concorde is that of out-of-control government hubris and “don’t-question-the-experts” thinking can lead to gigantic and embarrassing flops, building stuff that has no earthly connection to reality.

Gin Up A Story, And Stick With It. In fact, that is exactly the lesson Concorde represents. Today, it’s literally a chapter in a book titled, “Great Planning Disasters.” As a commercial project, it earned its place there.

Supposedly planned as a competitor and replacement for sub-sonic Boeing 707s and the like when it was first announced in 1962, Concorde was DOA from the gitgo. The market justifications could fill a shelf in the fiction section of Barnes & Noble.

Some will contend that the 1973 oil crisis killed off its orderbook, but the red pencils were at work well before that.

Today, Supersonic Is In The Works – And It’s Based On Economic Reality, Not National Hubris. Today, fifty years later, however, there is proven technology, a market place, and the economics in place to support a rationally-planned supersonic airliner program – or programs.

As the attendees at the 23^rd Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast experienced, the Boom Supersonic 55-seat airliner is one such example. With rational understanding of airline economics, consumer trends, and use of existing technology, this is a machine that will change air transportation.

Virgin Atlantic seemed to think so. So does Japan Airlines. Ditto with China’s largest travel organization. These and other investors did not just fall off a turnip truck.

But, make no mistake, it – and other supersonic aircraft projects today – have no lineage or relationship to Concorde.

And no planning relationship, either.

A Point To Clear Up History… Oh, and the three operators, which most of the veneer media stories miss… were Air France, British Airways, and … Braniff, whose crews – cockpit and cabin and maintenance – operated the airplane on an interchange over IAD to DFW in 1979-1980.

Singapore and BA had a co-branded route from London to Singapore using Concorde, but it was operated entirely by British Airways cockpit crews and a combination of BA/SQ cabin staff.

And none of it made any money.

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Starting This Month…

Airports:USA.com will feature a Forecast Flash regarding key trends in air traffic.

This month, we look at the projected growth at the 23 mainland US connecting hubsite airports.

Charlotte is a very interesting situation. Take a look at the future.

Airports:USA® Forecast:

6%+ Enplanement Growth – But With Geographic Access Shifts

According to a new forecast, the US air transportation system is in for some serious growth in the next 18 months.

Accelerating Growth. Currently, enplanements at US airports are already tracking up over 5.4%, but based on expected trends in the airline industry, growth may show strong acceleration as the year closes out, clocking in for the full year possibly at over 6.0%.

Within airport categories, the strongest percentage  growth will be at Midsize Non-Hubsite airports – those currently between 1 million and 2.5 million enplanements, where traffic is now skyrocketing at a 9.2% rate over last year.

It’s a different story, however, at the low end, where Small Non-Hubsite airports of under 500,000 enplanements are seeing less that 2.2% growth.

Airport Classifications That Reflect The Real World. Let’s start with a quick overview of new airport classifications.

The incredibly obsolete classifications still used by the FAA – where airports are all described in some way as being various size “hubs” – are now a detriment to real airport planning and confuse the public. The FAA uses the term “hub” in a context that has no relationship whatsoever to what’s going on in the air transportation industry.

Alternatively, Airports:USA classifies airports in four categories, each of which are affected by different airline and consumer dynamics:

Hubsite Airports. Here’s a flash to the FAA, which is still wallowing in nomenclature and a 50-year old concept of the airline industry: no airport is a “hub.”

The reality is that an airline (or in a few cases, like ORD, ATL and SEA, where it’s more than one airline) creates a hub operation at a given airport. Within Airports:USA, these are classified as airports where an airline has made the corporate strategy decision to concentrate aircraft resources with the objective of interconnecting passengers between flights, and their connecting enplanements make up 25% or more of the airport’s traffic.

Large Non-Hubsite Airports. These are airports experiencing over 2.5 million enplanements and where no airline is operating a true connecting hub operation.

Medium Non-Hubsite Airports. These are airports with between 1 million and 2.5 million annual enplanements, and where no airline has a connecting hub operation.

Small Non-Hubsite  Airports. These might be also termed “regional” airports, but that term can also be misleading. These are airports with under 1 million annual enplanements.

In the analysis below, we’ve also carved out of the last category of airports – Small Non-Hubsites – just those that have under 500,000 enplanements, to demonstrate the major shifts in air traffic flows and air access trends.

Now, to the data….

Yes, It Is The Economy. The facts can no longer be politically-ignored. Surges in airline traffic over the past 12 months are not a fluke. Consumers are spending more discretionary and business money on air travel. Tax cuts, higher business confidence, and lower unemployment do have bearing on air traffic demand.

Fundamentally, the US air transportation system has likely never been as robust. Even with much higher fuel prices, the expected acceleration of RJ retirements has slowed. Carriers need the lift.

More To Come… Overall, regardless of increases in fuel costs, air traffic demand shows no indication of falling off. As it stands today, US carriers are planning almost another 5% increase in seat production in the 4^th quarter, compared to same period last year. This is not “excess capacity” as some of the “analysts” on Wall Street may claim – it’s simply taking advantage of increased revenue opportunities.

It’s Network Carriers Driving The Growth. While there continues to be a lot of high-profile expansion on the part of ULCCs, the vast majority of the capacity growth in the 4^th quarter – 70.8% of it, to be precise – will be at the four main network carriers – American, Delta, United, and Southwest.

This shows that the traffic expansion in 2018 is fundamental – i.e., due to core consumer demand, and less so due to ULCCs, where the (successful) operating model is largely to stimulate new passengers based on low fares.

Four Categories – And A Look At Smaller Airport Trends. A review of the growth trends at the four major airport categories in the Airports:USA forecast reflects strong national growth, but an evolving geographic realignment of air service access.

Let’s look at the category forecasts. Beyond the four sets of airports, we’re culling out the changes at airports with <500,000 enplanements. It reveals a core emerging trend in the US air transportation system.

Continued Regionalization of Air Access. Note that the growth is strongest – percentage-wise – is in the Mid-Non-Hubsite category – 9.2%.

But for smaller community airports, the story is a bid different. At airports with under 500,000 enplanements, the growth is less than half the national average – just 2.2%.

Smaller regional airports – those under 1 million enplanements – today account for only 2.6% of America’s traffic. That’s way down from almost 4.0% in 2000. There’s a message here.

Consumer air travel patterns are changing, and, along with shifts in airliner fleets and operating economics, some smaller communities will increasingly find their air access shifting to an airport other than the local one.

The New Imperative: Re-Thinking Regional Connectivity. This air service dynamic – the decreasing ability of some smaller communities to support connective scheduled air service at the local airport – is one that demands new regional commercial planning.

Due to rock-solid economic and consumer realities, the air service connectivity at the local airport at some communities is going or gone, and it’s not coming back.

Nevertheless, the imperative for every community is to stay connected with the global economy – and often that will mean in the future via an airport other than the local one.

At  some small communities, trying to keep or recruit local service that consumers will actually use is about as effective as forming a bucket brigade on the Titanic.

Traffic Growing. But Geographic Air Access Is Shrinking. It’s a trend that regions of the nation must now contend with – the continued reduction in economically-viable connective scheduled air service at very small airports, particularly those within reach of a much larger air gateway.

Fact: consumers won’t shoehorn their travel plans to fly locally, when an hour or even 90 minutes away, there are far more convenient and often less total time-consuming options than using the low frequency flights that the local airport can only support, even in cases where there’s an EAS subsidy involved. It’s already happening at places like Topeka, Youngstown, Laughlin-Bullhead City and others.

They all will continue to have air service access – but by and large, it won’t be at the local airport, anymore.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars, maybe millions – both locally and some from government agencies – are poured yearly into doomed schemes to keep or find scheduled flights at airports that have no earthly chance of supporting them, and where local consumers often have better alternative options.

Two years ago, the US DOT had a well-meaning industry task force formed to find “solutions” to getting air service back to small airports, somehow with the misguided assumption that unless there was service at the local airport, the community would be cut off from the world. Results – nothing. Reality has marched on.

The chart says it all… while Small Non-Hubsite airports (those under 1 Million enplanements) will see a 6.2% growth, when we cull out only those airports experiencing under 500,000 enplanements, the conclusion is clear: air transportation economics, new communication channels, and consumer trends are combining to make small community air service much more vulnerable.

This is another reason that the US needs to revise its priorities in regard to regional access to the global economy, because these factors are making air service at the local airport a lot less future-viable.

Plateau In 2020. This growth can be expected to slow in 2020, simply based on known airline fleet trends. However, there are no dynamics now in play that would indicate a decline in overall US enplanements.

Summary Report Now Available. A copy of the summary report can be obtained by clicking here and requesting it. It contains additional data in regard to fastest growth airports in each category as well as other insights.

Forecast & Planning. As indicated by the data outlined, Boyd Group International focuses on future trends – i.e., forecasts that identify changes that airports, communities, and aviation-related companies need to address.

When you need real forecast and trend expertise, give us a call.

We don’t run with the pack.  We’re well ahead of it. And so are our clients.