Monday Update – November 19, 2018


New Summary 2018 Report…

We’ve just made available our Summary report of the trends emerging as we come to the close of 2018.

There are some interesting takes… like, the potential for rural airports to emerge as part of a whole new logistical system, CLT developing into a China gateway, and mid-size non-hubsite airports seeing much more robust growth.

A short read, but take a look. Click Here.

Forecasts & Trend Analyses. While there, check out the analytical firepower of having access to the only individual US airport enplanement forecasts accomplished entirely in the private sector. Airports:USA is now on-line and it’s updated monthly to accommodate airline capacity and scheduling shifts.


To Start This Week…

Yes, Internet Booking Is Here To Stay

“Delta, of course, has a hub at Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport…”

This was a new revelation – certainly to Delta – issued last week, from what is postured as a major media magazine for the travel agent industry.

The core of the article was lamenting that airlines are not turning to travel agencies to help sell seats, anymore.

There may be a reason, eh?


The Amazon HQ2 Facilities At Queens & N. Virginia –

Massive New DCA/LGA Traffic?  Just More Fake News

There was a loud burbling sound coming from the shallow-end of the media gene pool this week…

“…As a result (of the Amazon decision to locate in the NYC and WAS area), local airports will likely have to boost manpower and bolster infrastructure to handle the influx of employees, their families, and increased business traffic.”

That’s the media’s confident din, aimed at the great unwashed, who they assume are too numb to ever question what’s above or beneath the fold.

Yessir, there’s going to be a tsunami of new airline passenger traffic generated by the decision by Amazon to locate facilities in Queens and in Northern Virginia, promising to bring an additional 25,000 jobs to each region.

Airport crowds will be tighter… traffic more congested, and those security lines will be longer and more stressful, some in the media are warning us.

Taking it to the intended impression, LGA and DCA will look like the fall of Saigon on a daily basis, unless the powers-that-be get crackin’ right now to build more facilities and hire more people.

Yup. Amazon is coming to Queens and Northern Virginia… to hear the amateur and embarrassingly ignorant babble in some of the stories, it’s the air traffic equivalent of the Normandy invasion.

“… With security lines a notorious bottleneck at airports around the country, the potential for HQ2-related congestion has long been on the Transportation Security Administration’s radar.

Really? Notorious bottlenecks around the country? And – just a question – why would a business decision by just one company – Amazon – be on the TSA’s “radar?”

HQ2-related congestion? At airports?

Monkey Media Hear, Monkey Media Report. It begs the question and illuminates the answer… do some people in the media ever try to verify stuff they hear from each other? These types of stories certainly can’t be from any intelligent effort to check facts.

It’s “terrarium reporting” – where the data and facts are churned in a sealed atmosphere, free of contamination by any pesky outside input, and then proffered as professional insight.

Actually, they’re talking as if this new Amazon facility is going into Grand Island, or Yakama or Yuma. It’s not… did they bother to check out any data whatsoever? Like populations, traffic data, employment base, application sources?

Answer: nope.

Message to the fourth estate… try to spend at least five minutes to make sure your stuff is at least within a galaxy or so of factual.

Okay, A Little Data To Rain On The Hype Parade. Here are some numbers.

Queens, where the Amazon facility is planned, has a population of 2.4 million. The Amazon announcements are for 50,000 new jobs, split between there and Virginia. That’s 25,000 in Queens.

Point: Do The Math – if every single new Amazon job were performed by a new resident to Queens, that would mean a population increase of just over one percent. But most of these positions will likely be filled by locals, not new residents.

Some will be from Queens, some from other Buroughs, and some from Long Island and elsewhere in the region. But most won’t be arriving in moving vans.

So, media guys, what about all that new infrastructure you predict will be necessary…?

Point: Do The Math – In 2018, LaGuardia Airport is forecast by Airports:USA® to handle 30.8 million passengers, total including both in and out.

Now let’s assume that each employee at this new Amazon facility of 25,000 will generate 3 net-new additional air trips a year (wildly high, as will be explained below) and they’ll all use LGA, eschewing the drive down the Van Wyck to JFK.

That would mean that LGA would be in for a whapping 0.49% increase in passengers, if they all showed up today, and if all of the 25,000 were employees migrating to the region, importing new travel demand,

But they are not. The media stories imply that there will be a fleet of Noah’s People Arks arriving along the East River, disgorging thousands of new residents into Long Island City, all heading to get jobs at Amazon, and hankerin’ to get on the ‘net and start booking air travel.

Not even close. These jobs are not all travel-focused, as some of the media seem to indicate.

Bottom Line: More Sloppy Media. These data are as immediately obvious as a Big Mac at a vegan pep-rally. But this is emblematic of a lot (not all, certainly) of the media coverage of the aviation industry.

The economic impact of Amazon will be positive, just has the investment made by other firms that have or may expand in the NYC or WAS regions.

But the drivel oozing out of some media sources regarding the choking effects it will have on LGA and DCA is one more indication that more and more, we’re on our own getting reliable facts.