Monday Insight – August 30, 2021

Fallout From Afghanistan Could Hit Our Airports
For Real

“Several Thousands.”

That was the indication from the people in Washington regarding the number of prisoners who have been apparently released by the Taliban from confinement at the abandoned U.S. Bagram air base.

The administration didn’t have any idea of the exact number. Not too comforting since originally it was our prison.

These are not street hoods doing time for boosting a liquor store. These are dedicated killers. Dedicated terrorists… as are the rest of the animals now apparently in charge in Afghanistan. And they are now back in circulation under a regime that actually has cautioned citizens that its savage neanderthal members are not trained to deal with women, so, ladies, please stay home.

Add to this the disturbing indications that many or even most of the tens of thousands of Afghans being airlifted to the U.S. have not been fully vetted. Not just for CCP-Covid, but for any traces of being involved with the Taliban itself.

There Is No Plan – None. If this is the official competence of the security program for evacuating Afghanistan, a place rife with terrorists, give some thought regarding just how competent the security at our domestic airports might be.

The open question is whether the combination of the Taliban back in charge in Kabul, plus thousands of unvetted people from Afghanistan being funneled into the U.S., and also materially open borders in the south, could combine into increased threats of terrorism on our air transportation system.

Draw your own conclusions.

Identification. Anticipation, Contingency Planning. Event Mitigation. These are commonsense foundations of aggressive security awareness. Are they in place across the nation’s infrastructure?

Based on the responses to the last major terrorist attack – the Colonial Pipeline event – the indications are clear that Homeland Security is clueless to the four basics above. Talk about identification… these political appointees didn’t even think that a terrorist event which partially shut down fuel distribution to the East Coast was a “security incident.” No explosions. No violence. So, it wasn’t any big deal.

For the record, the current occupants of the White House even indicated that the pipeline event and the chaos it caused were positive – it would support the administration’s plan to encourage people to buy battery-powered cars.

Yup. Real security awareness.

What To Expect… More Layers of Hype. The increased threat is not vapor, but we can likely plan on the responses from the TSA to be pretty much that. Security won’t be enhanced, but high-visual stunts will be the order of the day…

Elimination of Pre-Check. This will be a platform for the TSA to show they are tightening screening. Yessir, having more people take off their shoes will more than make up for not having clue about what innovative new approaches terrorists might take to attacking our airports.

More Random Passenger Checks. Look for a return of having randomly chosen passengers nailed for additional screening at boarding gates. The operative word is “random” – as far as enhancing security, it’s the equivalent of just shooting blindly into the woods and calling it deer hunting.

Scrutiny of Passengers on One-Way Itineraries. The post-9/11 assumption that a terrorist intent on a suicide bombing would certainly be cost-conscious enough not to buy a return ticket. This part of the Kabuki security theater may return.

Log On This Thursday To Aviation Unscripted… Some Accurate And Disturbing Facts. The next Aviation Unscripted video is planned to review where the USA has come since 9/11 and give a candid picture of what we can expect as the political appointees at the top of DHS and TSA try to figure out what to do next.

We’ve had 20 years since 9/11.

Judging by the response to Colonial Pipeline and the fiasco in Afghanistan, there is the legitimate question that it’s been wasted.


And, Keeping Up With Traffic Demand Trends…

If you haven’t done so yet, log on to This Week’s Aviation Unscripted Video to get some new insight regarding what we can expect in the next four months in regard to enplanements across the nation.

We discuss the impending effects of continuing inflation on the three main air traffic segments – business, personal and leisure. Consumer price increases are in full swing, making air travel dollars more scarce. One factor giving us a temporary break is that due to globe issues, jet-A has not yet seen major spikes.

We grab the CCP-Covid third rail – the increasing confusion regarding the delta strain of the CCP’s gift to the world, as well as the issue of masks and social restrictions is starting to affect future bookings.

We look at  the latest Airports:USA® projection of the coming changes in the role of the nation’s 24 airline connecting hubsites – which are expected to grow, and which are expected to see flat or even declining traffic through 2025.

Invest the 14 minutes to join us at Aviation Unscripted – It’s insight and perspectives not found anywhere else.  Go there now.