How Do You Say “Chutzpah” In Mandarin?

This Is The Chinese Pandemic. Let’s Stop Playing Politics

Concerned about massive restrictions in air travel and business activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic? Concerned about the damage that’s being done to the US economy?

Keep being concerned. What started this rodeo is still alive and well and a threat.

That’s because not a single action has been taken – by any nation – to recognize, admit and prevent the foundational causes that first created the coronavirus, and of the actions that turned it into what now must – must – be called the China COVID-19 pandemic.

What happened in Wuhan, China is not water under the bridge… that river is still flowing.

A Human-Caused Epidemic. All the businesses across the world that are shutting down, all the airlines that are nearly going out of business, and all the people who have died from this pandemic are victims of a human-caused event.

Repeat: despite how some in politics and the media are painting it, this is not a “natural” catastrophe, like an earthquake or typhoon or tsunami. If we want to avoid this in the future – i.e., learn from the tragedy – one cannot ethically ignore the timeline of events and dishonest shenanigans that brought the world into a pandemic situation.

The disgusting pap that “we must work with China” to find solutions is like hiring Typhoid Mary as a health consultant.

This event is the direct result of political corruption and incompetent handling by the Chinese government. Not the Chinese people, but the thugs running the Chinese Communist Party. The facts are clear.

Delay Any Action – No, Prohibit Any Action – For Weeks. Then, Let Infected People Travel. Here’s fact-based timeline that the PRC government is trying to smokescreen with a flood of recent fictional and self-serving PR stunts to absolve it from taking full responsibility for this pandemic.

• It started in Wuhan. Based on the location of the first set of victims, it was due to the filth and disgusting hygiene at a typical “wet market.” Medical authorities were aware of this virus at least by mid-December, with some reports indicating earlier.

• Intentional actions were taken by the Chinese government to keep the local public in Wuhan – like, 11 million people – uninformed. The Party did not want it known that there was an epidemic. Face, and all that stuff.

• Doctors were threatened by the Chinese government and literally forced to sign “confessions” admitting that that they were spreading anti-social rumors by reporting on the virus.

• Medical evidence of the communicative nature of the virus was not only covered up by the Chinese government, but medical professionals were threatened with imprisonment if they didn’t stop discussing it.

• The Chinese government intentionally tried to mislead the public, telling them that the virus was not communicative, even to the point of holding massive shows and community meals, to “prove” there was no epidemic.

• The Chinese government, with full knowledge of the contagious nature of the virus, freely allowed millions of Wuhan residents to leave the city to travel across China and the world for the Lunar New Year migrations. That is what differentiated this epidemic from SARS and others.

• The Chinese government knowingly allowed this virus to spread for over two months, before starting – just starting – to take action.

• The Chinese government has steadfastly kept medical professionals from other countries away… with the exception of hacks from the W.H.O.

What’s the thread here?

The Chinese government was completely complicit in allowing – and facilitating – this virus to spread and create a pandemic across the world

The W.H.O.? Okay, Guess Which Nation Is A Major Member. Now, there are the comments from the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) that China acted quickly and aggressively to respond to the first knowledge of the coronavirus, limiting the spread of the virus.

That is a lie, refuted by facts. Remember, China is a major member – a cohort – of the W.H.O.

All The Causal Factors Are Still Operative. The shocking part of all this is that the root causes of the virus – filth and poor hygiene – still exists in China’s open air markets, and the political system whose policies allowed the virus to spread also still exists.

Yes, the wet market in Wuhan where the virus is thought to have started has been closed, but the retail system of which it was a part still exists all across China. And the Party clowns who prohibited early medical action in Wuhan, and actually allowed its spread, are still in power, lavishing kudos on themselves for their bold decisions. And making as sure as they can that no real facts get on the ‘net.

China is excited to build aircraft carriers and missiles, but outside of huge new cities, its public facilities don’t generally even have soap or toilet paper.

The Timeline: They Let It Spread. Incredibly, the disgusting actions of the Chinese government – literally prohibiting medical staff to even professionally converse about the virus, let alone take actions to contain it – have gotten a walk from the rest of the world.

They will do it again – heck, they are still doing it. There’s no free press in China, and they try to scrub the internet.

Indeed, the public social events the Party put on in the days just prior to finally having to admit there was an epidemic, including giant communal meals and entertainment events, as well as staged news videos of citizens dancing around demonstrating no need for masks, chanting “No fear!” – these represent flat out criminal behavior.

Briefly put, even after dozens of reported cases, and muzzling medical professionals, the Chinese government still encouraged such communal events through January 21. Meanwhile, millions of people – many no doubt infected – continued to leave Wuhan, crowding on buses, trains and airplanes, to visit family throughout China for the New Year.

Two days later, after continually claiming there was no communicative virus, the Chinese government did a sudden U-turn and put Wuhan under quarantine – but only after millions had already left. They couldn’t hide it anymore – the virus was popping up all over China. And the world.

Even then, citizens were still being arrested and publicly shamed for discussing the virus and threatening social order.

The outbreak was smack at the start of the Lunar New Year (Spring) festival migration. But the truth remains that the Chinese government withheld information from the public, and did little to stem the travel tide.

Yes, It Is The China Epidemic. There are some in the media and some pandering US politicians that claim calling this honestly for what it is – China’s Pandemic – is xenophobic or even racist.

Apparently, they put veneer political correctness above identifying the truth, which is that it was the actions of the Chinese government that first repressed actions to contain the virus, and then allowed populations they knew to be infected to spread across China and the world.

It’s called responsibility. Again, this is not an event of nature. It is a human-caused event, and the humans responsible are the Chinese Communist Party which is the government of China.

The Chinese people are victims, just as the folks in France, Spain, Korea, the Philippines, Italy and the USA. But make no mistake, it is the thugs running the CCP that bear the responsibility and culpability.

Lie About It And Hope The World Buys It. Actually, regardless of the Mandarin translation of chutzpah, now the Chinese government is spreading rumors just as dangerous as the virus itself… that it’s the US that started the epidemic, and it’s China that is the victim.

The story is that the Party must be lauded for boldly and decisively taking heroic actions to protect the people. That, too is a blatant lie.

The Future: A Different Economic Relationship. This now strips bare the image that China had been nurturing across the globe as a nation of vibrant and emerging growth. Despite a couple of decades of apparent economic progress, this China virus event shows that at its heart, China is run by the same Party that mowed down student protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989, with zero care for human life over the Party.

Wanna talk xenophobic, politicians?

All That Travel Enthusiasm Is Vaporized. Business Investment In China, Too. Going forward, the relationship between the US and China (and between other nations and China) will be very different.

At BGI, we’ve seen a total 180. Things are fundamentally and completely different from 2016, when we were enthusiastically out-reaching to China for more tourists, and preparing China-Welcome programs for airports and communities. That entire environment is gone.

There is no going back to thousands of Americans taking vacations to visit Guilin, a boat trip up the Yangtze, or seeing Shanghai, or Xi’an. The Party has made it clear that Americans aren’t welcome. They have stirred up public sentiment that America is some evil place.

As for Chinese tourism to the USA – write it off. Not only has the Party vilified the US, but China’s balloon economy is zapping a lot of the discretionary yuan that was formerly in Chinese consumers’ pockets.

But one thing to keep in mind – every one of the major dynamics that caused the COVID-19 pandemic is still in place. And they’re all in China.

Let’s label it honestly, to perhaps prevent another pandemic.
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BoydGroupChina.com –

Straight Talk Regarding CONVID-19

For ongoing data and information on CONVID-19 developments that affect aviation in China as well as the rest of the globe, we’re routinely updating the Insights page at www.BoydGroupChina.com. It is the new source of hard information on China’s air transportation system.

Historical Data. We have monthly national statistics regarding traffic by sector and region. In the future, we will be generating additional airport-specific information.

Forecast Accuracy. We’re proud to note that our Airports:China™ forecast for 2019 airport traffic was within less than half a percentage point of the number just reported by CAAC.

Independent Perspectives That Challenge “Official” Information. In the Insights section, however, we do not get anywhere near that close to political correctness.

Using a range of sources and information – not just “official” statements – some of the troubling factors in this  CONVID-19 situation are covered.

What Happens In China Affects Air Transportation. Just about any major event in China will drive changes in air travel patterns and demand.

So, BoydGroupChina is not reticent to address and analyze these issue.

These include reviews of the initial government reticence to be up front about the virus, the threats to medical professionals to not “spread rumors” by talking about the virus, incarcerating people covering the event on social media, and embarrassing missives from the government, such as claiming that air travel is completely safe… as long as you don’t sit near an infected person. (Cannot make this up.)

We also discuss the possible lack of candor and reliability of information coming from the Chinese government regarding the actual spread of the virus. There is evidence that it is possibly still out of control, and the numbers are “managed.” Indeed, much of China is economically still shut down.

We relate these major events to shift in air capacity and service levels across the nation. The result in an insight source not found anywhere else.

Log On – We are developing this site to be the first independent source of data and information on aviation in China, and how it affects the U.S. and the rest of the globe.

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Congratulations to client Cherry Capital Airport, gaining daily nonstop flights to United’s global hub at Washington/Dulles!

Another notch in the economic belt for Traverse City.

Air France has pulled its first of a fleet of ten A380s out of service.

It joins five others previously retired by Singapore, one of which has been scrapped for lack of second-hand customers. The other nine AF 380s will be gone by 2022.

This evolving situation again underscores the need to question ambient trend-line thinking.

Twenty years ago, every major airport had “VLJs” – very large jets – as part of their must-have future capacity planning, with the future need to handle airplanes transiting 1,000 passengers (500 arriving and 500 departing) at a clip.

With a few exceptions – Boyd Group International being one – the me-too consensus in the aviation consulting business was that the A380 was going to be the future flagship of international air commerce. And why not – bigger and bigger has been the trend ever since the DC-3 eclipsed the Boeing 247, and it and its followers being leapfrogged by larger and larger airliners, right up to the 747, DC-10, and L-1011.

We, along with a only couple of other firms, urged caution, pointing out issues such as total changes in the character of the air transportation system, the raw number of A380 units needed to be sold to cover development costs, as well as the A380’s limited mission flexibility, were demand-limiters that were not being considered.

Flight Shaming – Let’s All Live In Clean Caves

The media seems to be mesmerized by the concept of making people ashamed of getting on an airplane.

“Flight shaming” is based on the head-in-the-sand luddite concept that to travel on an airplane is to blatantly and selfishly destroy the environment… to deny polar bears the ice to live on, and cause the ozone hole to expand into a human-lethal gap in the sky.

Yup. Just staying put is far more responsible than flying to see grandma. You can do that electronically, anyway.

The media reports on flight shaming as if it is a natural option that should be explored across the globe, when in fact it represents a fundamental concept that is anti-human. It it causes carbon, it must be bad, and therefore anyone who creates a “carbon footprint” is evil.

Regardless of any information, science, or technological input that may moderate or in some cases completely refute this panic-call to end carbon emissions, flight shaming and other supposed measures are not to be questioned. It’s decided. Air travel is evil to the environment – it is not to be questioned.

Let’s grab a third rail. The airline industry has mostly just gone along with th

For the 2019 – 2020 ski season, Bozeman will be the nation’s best-served ski resort gateway.

The air access point for the Big Sky Ski Resort, BZN will have daily nonstop flights to 13 airline connecting hubs, making nonstop and single-connect service  available from most commercially served airports in the nation – far more than any other U.S. winter sports venue.

As its air service consultant, Boyd Group International is honored to have assisted Bozeman in recruiting and retaining this access.

AIRPORT ANALYTICAL FIREPOWER

Aviation DataMiner Quarterly Analytics For Airport Professionals

Here’s a hard truth: if you are using any other source of quarterly airport data, you’re probably drawing inaccurate conclusions from incomplete data.

Most sources that sell quarterly reports simply download raw BTS data – which anybody can do for free – and proceed to sort it into a plethora of tables and graphs, and then charge airports exorbitant fees.

They deliver lots of comparisons, maybe, but no real analytical efforts.

Fact: BTS DB1B O&D Data Are Not Complete. So, neither are reports that rely on them exclusively. They miss a lot of information – which is something that many sources of quarterly data probably don’t even know.

A 10% Sample – But Not of All Tickets Sold.  In the purest sense, DB1B data is a set of specific facts extracted from passenger tickets – and what most other sources fail to disclose is that not all tickets used in a quarter are included, just some of them.

Not only that, but it’s further complicated because not all US certificated passenger carriers participate in the sample.

Therefore, the DB1B data other quarterly products rely on are just a 10% sample of less than 100% of all tickets. So those reports are not fully representative of the airline industry.

Aviation DataMiner – Analytics, Instead of Raw Internet Tables. What makes our data better and more accurate is that our advanced Aviation DataMiner system aggregates DB1B information with other  sources of passenger traffic and airline schedules, which results in a more complete database – and a better planning tool for aviation professionals.

Let’s take Shreveport, comparing raw BTS numbers – which other vendors sell after getting downloading them for free – with the fully-reconciled data delivered by the BGI Key Performance Metrics report. The period is full year ending 2Q 2015.

Take a look – in just the top ten metro O&D markets, the raw BTS numbers are over five percent off – in some markets, much more.

This also means that other metrics – such as average fares, yields, trip origination, etc. will also be skewed in the raw and incomplete DB1B data.

The point is that delivering accurate, professional data requires a lot more effort and expertise than just parroting a single federal source.

As with all government data, it’s critical that the reader have a full understanding of what the data represents, how it’s reported, and where the shortfalls are. It’s not for amateurs.

What Sets BGI Ahead: We’re An Aviation Data Company. Boyd Group International is focused as a data and research company. Most of the other sources of “quarterlies” just pull raw – and partial – data off the internet, and pass it off as-is.

Key Performance Metrics – Instead of Pages of Numbers

Volumes of tables and lists are not a planning tool.

The reports in the Key Performance Metrics deliver a wide swath of important analytical insights relating to the airport. For example, here’s what is included with the report on top markets. It’s been split into two sections to fit, by the way…

Okay. Time To Take A Closer Look.

We’ve done a short tour of Key Performance Metrics. Just click here to take a look.

Then, fill out the form below – or just send us an e-mail – and we can start your subscription right away.

If you’re subscribing to another quarterly source, revisit your budget. Even with the superior quality and professionalism of the Boyd Group International Key Performance Metrics, you’ll have several thousand dollars left at the end of the year. Some other sources charge $8,000 or more for what’s essentially public – and not entirely complete – information.

Key Performance Metrics is just $4,450 for a year’s subscription – and that includes a short term forecast every quarter included.

Oh, and by the way… you may want to consider an on-line subscription to Aviation DataMiner, too. It gives enormous analytical access to all airport metrics, as well as schedules and hundreds of reports.

Subscribers to Aviation DataMiner’s Airport Key Performance Metrics & Short-Term Passenger Forecasts will be receiving their reports for the 1Q of 2019 in the next week.

Unlike other “quarterly” products, this program delivers refined planning data and information, instead of just numbers regurgitated from raw BTS tables, which reflect no value-added insights.

One key indicator of an amateur and sloppy “quarterly” report: when all the O&D numbers end in zero. This means that they are just taken raw from the BTS website, without any attempt to reconcile the data against other sources. This is necessary because the 10% sample data results in material errors and misinformation, particularly in smaller markets.

If you’re interested in real quarterly planning data, not just page after page of numbers any high school intern could pull off the ‘net, give us a call for subscription information to Airport Key Performance Metrics & Short-Term Passenger Forecasts, or click here and ask us.

The latest reported raw O&D data have been screened for accuracy, reconciled against other sources, and are now available on-line to Aviation DataMiner subscribers.

Overall, the indications are that the strong economy is driving solid traffic, with carriers carefully applying capacity to maximize ROI.

The baseline indications are still pointing to @ 4.5% enplanement growth in 2019.

Airports should now prepare for the usual suspects in the media to call and babble about “comparative” ticket prices between airports. Be ready to attempt to educate these deluded folks in regard to the fact that air transportation is not a single commodity, but is a different product airport to airport.

Examples of Our China Projects

Boyd Group International is the leader in research, forecasting and trend analysis of China air traffic.

Our Airports:China program monitors traffic and passenger dynamics at over 200 airports across the Middle Kingdom. We monitor events in China via numerous channels, including locally-produced reports in Chinese language. Below are a few of our projects in this area.

Exclusive China-Welcome Programs For Communities & Airports

Boyd Group International’s China Welcome programs provide cutting-edge programs to assist airports, communities and venues in attracting a larger share of the burgeoning Chinese leisure market to the USA.

The programs range from basic digital awareness programs within China, including tailored and locally-registered WeChat apps, to complete wayfinding and accommodation programs to assist these visitors infinding US airports and communities welcoming to them Because of the nature of Chinese visitation, all areas of the USA have opportunities to capture this traffic, from Yellowstone, to Mr. Desert Island, to the Florida Keys, to the Alamo, BGI provides programs to illuminate their profile in China, as well as facilitate their travel through airports and communities.

China-Huanying System For Las Vegas McCarran International Airport

Boyd Group International, engineered a comprehensive China-Huanying Guanglin (Greetings & Welcome) program for Las Vegas McCarran International Airport, in conjunction with new nonstop flights from Beijing on Hainan Airlines.

This will position LAS to be the premier gateway airport of choice for additional Chinese carriers, and is one that no other airport in the US even comes close to.

The program encompasses all phases of the Chinese guest’s transit through the airport, from the aircraft door, through the concourse, to the FIS, and to curbside – and back.

A new WeChat app for McCarran is the most advanced of any US airport, and was designed from the bottom-up in Chinese by airport service experts. Not only is it at or above a par with will the apps at global airports such as Shanghai and Beijing, but it is a huge advantage in demonstrating to Chinese carriers that LAS is focused on making their passengers welcome and comfortable.

A special Huanying (Welcome) Ambassador program was implemented with Mandarin-speaking staff, in recognizable uniforms, at the ready to proactively assist arriving and departing Chinese visitors.

Most US airports will claim to have a “China ready” program. McCarran is the first to have a fully-functional one in place.

Support Materials – Brochures & Trans-Created Webpages and Websites

Regardless of the size of an airport, it has Chinese visitors.

Having materials and information ready and available in Chinese – such as an informational brochure and a page on an airport’s website – conveys interest and respect when leisure and business travelers consider coming to a US community. With over $14 billion in Chinese business investment in the US, a simple expression such as this can make a difference in a site-search. This is in addition to the over 23 million leisure visitors that will be exploring the US over the next five years.

But this is not an endeavor for amateurs. Unfortunately, often these materials are simply translated by a web service from English, which can be very embarrassing. For just one example, the term “black car” is often used at US airports to describe the Towncars, sedans and limousines that are a key part of the ground transportation system, most of which are black.

But the term heiche – black car –has an entirely different connotation in China. It tells the reader that the airport is served by dishonest gypsy cabs. Not a good promotional idea.

Our translation partners are versed in the travel business. Therefore, materials are not “translated” but trans-created, taking the intent of the message and putting it into Chinese context, syntax and visual format. (Chinese-language brochures and websites follow very different design demands and characteristics, and the China Ni Hao team delivers it.)

We have accomplished this for a number of airport clients, raising their profile and awareness among this important new traffic sector.

For example, shown is a brochure we had trans-created for New Orleans International Airport, showcasing the airport’s new terminal and how it will welcome honored visitors from China. On the opposite side (not shown) providing a description the fun attractions in the city.

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Route & Market Feasibility Analyses – Southeast Asia – China Markets

One of our clients – a major travel operator in Southeast Asia – called upon Boyd Group International to provide route and revenue projections for a range of proposed routes to major Chinese destinations.

These included markets from Beijing, Hong Kong, Sanya, Chengdu, Hefei, Lanzhou and Xi’an. BGI analyzed each market’s specific costs, requirements for specific navigational capabilities at each airport, potential competitive actions, and de facto effects on certain markets due to Chinese government travel policies.

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The First China-US Aviation Opportunities Symposiums.

Boyd Group International has been engaged in advanced forecasts of both China aircraft demand, as well as the future of Chinese visitation and investment in the US. The Symposium has opened new liaison between China and several of the airports attending.

Our forecasts have been at the forefront of defining and predicting the growth in both leisure and business travel to the US from China. Updates have been provided at the IAFS™ over the past four years. In 2015, this was expanded to its own Symposium, held in Las Vegas. It outlined programs for airports and communities to pursue to become China-Welcome™ and capture their share of the 16 million expected visitors from China over the next five years.

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Participation In The First China Aviation Fuel Conference.

BGI worked in the marketing of, and participated in, the first conference focusing on fuel logistics in China. Attended by CEOs of major energy companies and suppliers, the event in Beijing attracted over 1,000 delegates from around the world, including members of China’s Standing Committee (equivalent of the US Cabinet.)