Before we start…
International Aviation Forecast Summit
Shaping Up To Be Largest Yet!
We are excited at the registrations – on-site and virtual – coming in for the 25th IAFS.
This will be the first major live aviation event since the Covid pandemic was delivered to the U.S. And it will be the event that really does explore the future – as is, where-is. For those who still are travel-restricted, there’s a virtual option. But being there is the real deal. Cincinnati USA, October 11-13.
There are wrenching changes continuing to evolve in aviation, and the IAFS will have the industry leaders there, ready to discuss the future. At Boyd Group International, we understand that change is just another word for “opportunity,” and that will be the theme of the Summit.
If you haven’t registered yet, click here to see the agenda and the pre-Summit Workshop program. Then register!
Delta has retired the last of its 737-700s, somewhat simplifying its fleet.
Southwest was reported to park last week an additional seven 737-700s, and restore to flying status 41 more that had been stored. Fleet-flipping in the right direction.
American is shifting the focus of Asian operations to DFW, instead of LAX. A very smart move. LAX has traditionally had strong local Asian O&D, but is in a very poor geographic location for connect traffic from the rest of the USA. AA can better connect traffic from the US Deep South and from Latin America over DFW.
The shift is entirely consistent with the imperatives of the new air transportation system… anticipating the future and moving accordingly. BGI’s Airports:China forecasts indicate that US-China O&D – a major part of the LAX base – will plummet from 8.2 million in 2019 to – at best – 1.1 million in 2021 and beyond. Ignore the veneer reports that the Chinese economy and air traffic are rebounding. They are not. The AA DFW hub is a much more productive gateway than LAX. Besides, the main core of the LAX-Asia traffic was China, and it’s dead as a dodo.
This runs counter to the drivel coming out of China from traditional media. Keep in mind that no reports originated in China, even by U.S. media, can be fully trusted. One headline that displeases the unelected thugs in the CCP, and your native reporters either disappear or are harassed and American staff are tossed out of the country. This does affect the type of reporting that’s published.
Leisure Traffic Growth... the unknown at this moment is how consumers will in the future define “disposable income.” Plus, the willy-nilly, come and go “quarantines” that some states put into effect are also unknowns that will keep people home.
Enplanement Forecasts – 2021. Our Airports:USA forecasts are being restructured to address the volatility in airline capacity scheduling. One major factor will be close monitoring of fleet shifts. In the next 18 months, it won’t be regional “demand” that will determine traffic volume, but instead the capacity that airlines choose to produce.
This means that traditional ways of predicting traffic levels can no longer rely on past history. At the IAFS, we’re holding a special Workshop to explore the new airport planning dynamics. It’s called Titanic Dynamics, and it explores how to deal with the new factors in air service access.
That scraping sound in the ASD world really was an iceberg. Click here for details. Then register for the IAFS.
FROM ALL OF US AT BOYD GROUP INTERNATIONAL – OUR WISHES FOR A GREAT WEEK AHEAD!
REMEMBER… THIS IS A PERIOD OF CHANGE – AND CHANGE ALWAYS BRINGS OPPORTUNITY TO BREAK FROM THE PAST.