IAFS Update…
We are excited to announce that Mr. Joe Esposito of Delta Air Lines will be joining us at the International Aviation Forecast Summit, October 11-13 in Cincinnati, USA.
This year’s Summit is shaping up to be the most-attended yet, with a live/virtual hybrid presentation. We have four places left on-site at the Hyatt, and virtual attendance is still has a few openings as well.
Click here to see the agenda – no other event delivers anywhere near the content and insight.This is first – and only – aviation forecast conference since the advent of the CCP-Covid pandemic – data and perspectives that cut to the reality of the future
Log on and join us!
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Getting Geared For A New Transportation System
Two Thousand, Two-hundred and Sixty-six.
That’s 2,266 airplanes to be exact. It’s the difference in the number of jet airliners that were in service in North America (approximately 6,620) on February 1, 2020 and the number reported as in service as of August 30, 2020.
That is a lot of cold iron… plus the units that are back in service likely are seeing low utilization. Based on Airports:USA forecasts of traffic re-bound, it is entirely likely that the fleet won’t again get to the 6,620 level until the end of 2022.
These are some of the findings in the 2021-2030 Boyd Group International Global Fleet Trend & Demand Forecast, which will be presented at the IAFS next week, along with forecasts from Boeing, Airbus and Embraer.
Changes In Mission Applications Driving Fleet Restructuring. It’s not just the number of airliners, but the major changes in fleet mix. With the major decline in international demand, there will be what looks like a long-haul fleet dichotomy. Airlines will be tapping into new ultra-long haul markets to developing regions such as Africa and India, due to a major decline in “traditional” demand, such as trans-Atlantic. Point: ultra long range airliners will tend to supplant some in the fleets with lesser range.
As for domestic service – we are already seeing the effects – metro-peripheral airports will see less service, with carriers intending to aggregate traffic in a given region into fewer gateways. Some smaller feed markets will see less capacity as 50-seat jets get retired. And as for short-haul and intra-regional O&D traffic – it’s going by automobile or via Zoom. That won’t change.
More Seats At The Gate. One key metric that will change: In 2019 the average seats per airliner in fleet was 137. At the end of next year it will be 151 seats. It is an indication of the retirement of large numbers of 50-seat jets.
Small Communities… Less Service. Not Necessarily No Service. There won’t, however be a wholesale abandonment of scheduled service at small airports. The misleading wolf calls from some industry organizations that loss of “regional airlines” will leave such communities high and dry are non-factual nonsense. There have been a few such companies go out of business, but many of the airplanes just shifted to operators. ExpressJet is going down… but many of their aircraft are now going to be operated by CommutAir.
Nevertheless, the air transportation system itself is fundamentally evolving into a different role. Changes in the economics of air travel, changes in fleet applications and consumer shifts to other communication channels are all taking place right now. Airport planning cannot just assume a return to pre-CCP-Covid days.
New Planning Is In Order. Call The #1 Aviation Forecast Team. Dust off that master plan. Even if it was done just last year, it’s focused on an aviation industry that’s no longer in place.
At Boyd Group International, we are providing our clients with a new program, Focus On The Future, that takes every business and consumer aspect at an airport, and relates them to the known and expected realities of the new emerging environment. Give us a call to discuss and get started. Assuming the past is not an option
Also, the new air transportation environment will be the subject of a pre-Summit Workshop, The Titanic Dynamic, which covers the need for anticipation, rapid response, and no reticence to accept “mathematical certainties” in air service planning.
This is not another tired discussion of “air service development” – it will be a incisive look at the new air transportation system and its role in the new communication systems, and how to recognize where new opportunities will be.
Again, just click here to register for the Summit and the pre-event Workshops.
And don’t forget to call or drop us an email to discuss scheduling your airport’s Focus On The Future program.
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FROM ALL OF US AT BOYD GROUP INTERNATIONAL, WE WISH YOU A HEALTHY AND PROSPEROUS WEEK AHEAD!
AND IN THE MIDST OF ALL THESE CHANGES, KEEP A SHARP EYE FOR NEW OPPORTUNITIES… THEY ARE THERE, WE JUST NEED TO ADJUST OUR VISION A BIT.