Monday Insight – March 28, 2022

This Week…

Watch For Falling Route Systems

Inflation – or, the anticipation of more of the same – has apparently hit the route planning departments of most major airline systems.

It’s not just short haul feed routes, or the proximate dynamics that induced SkyWest, American and Delta to announce pull-backs from almost 50 such markets, all operated with 50-seat jets. It’s all about inflation and fuel.

The ax is now falling on longer-haul markets, both domestic and international.

Do your own media search. JetBlue is yanking – at least pro-tem – a number of transcon routes. United has announced a number of international markets that won’t be operated as planned.

The lightweight sections of the media will attempt to paint this as the outcome of a pilot shortage. The reality is a forecast for a revenue shortage to cover what will be skyrocketing fuel costs.

This is not as temporary as it might be painted. There are no dynamics in play that will materially reduce oil below $100 per barrel. In fact, the inhabitants of the White House and the top seat warmers at the Department of Transportation have made it clear that squeezing oil prices will force people into using electric vehicles.

It’s a dimbulb policy, but it is now translating into higher costs for everything.

Over the next four weeks, plan on more service reductions and a squeeze on fare levels.


And, Speaking of Electric… Think Again

The Airline Industry Is Heading For A Colossal Brick Wall

The rush toward electric air taxis and small “commuter” airliners is all the rage. New transportation modalities are on the way, according to the breathless news stories.

The only leeetle question is simply whether there will be motive power to turn those oh-so-clean and not to be questioned electric aircraft. We just covered this in our latest Aviation Unscripted video… hard questions that apparently we are not allowed to ask.

In this week’s Aviation Unscripted video, we cross the politically correct line and ask these questions.

Anybody done professional hard planning of the sourcing of batteries? Or, the proper use of same?

Gee, If there’s a fire, traditional CFR isn’t effective… so, is it a hazmat problem? How about disposal of these things?

Lithium-ion batteries are not as recyclable as the ones that start your traditional automobile.

Here’s a bit of rain on what has become a gigantic naked emperor show…none of those issues have been properly addressed. Remember, battery power is no more “sustainable” than is petroleum. It comes mainly from minerals, and regardless of whether they are recharged from a coal-fired generation plant or a flock of tooth fairies, their entire life cycle, as it stand today is not “sustainable.”

But it sure is trendy… sort of the official projections of atomic power in the early 1950s.

The result may be not too different, unless these major issues are addressed.

Click here – invest 8 minutes that will challenge a lot of traditional thinking.