Monday Insight – June 8, 2020

The Rebound Is In Progress, Big Time

We were sort of out on a limb, according to some in the industry.

That’s referring to our April forecasts that indicated a return to 85% traffic, month compared, year-over-year by the end of 2020.

Apparently that was not as far out as it may have appeared to a lot of traditional forecasting approaches, as well as professional opinions from very respected analysts elsewhere in our industry. One of the usual suspects is claiming it will take three or four years to get back to 2019 levels.

It’s what happens when consultants rely on “models” instead of having a grasp of industry trends.

For The Cassandras, Read’em And Weep. The indicators now are all very strong. We have seen Frontier adding new markets, Allegiant taking back airliners from the desert, American noting they will be back to 55% of pre-CCP-COVID capacity. We see Delta’s July schedule filings indicating a 70% increase in departures over June, and 146% more ASMs. Spirit is restoring capacity, also.

The fact is that the economy is coming back, and it is taking air transportation demand along with it.

The latest jobs numbers show that. The description of this CCP-inflicted pandemic as being an episodic event rather than a structural decline, is accurate. Actually, air travel is more of an intrinsic part of the economy than other industries, some of which may take longer to regain pre-pandemic revenues. It’s closer to the restaurant industry… when they reopen, people come in and order.

Warning: Routes & Markets – No Return To The Prior Status Quo. This does not mean that the air transportation system will have the same structure. The pandemic-inflicted damage has shifted both fleet strategies and market tactics. While traffic levels will recover domestically, not all airports will be back on airline route maps until later in 2021 – and some simply won’t be there at all. In the coming week, we’ll be covering this in our Touch & Go news flash to our clients.

Just An Observation. Apparently, These Data Aren’t Welcome In Some Corners. These changes in airline demand due to the economy coming back on line are material, and very positive indicators of the direction of the economy. They were unexpected among the supposed cognoscenti in both the mainline and aviation media. Clearly great news. They indicate positive and important directions in the economy.

Yet, funny, you’re hard pressed to find any real coverage of this in much of the media. Wonder why… maybe some folks aren’t rooting for positive recovery.

Forecasting Is Analyzing The Dynamics Shaping The Future, Not Entering Data Into Static Models. In any case, when you need forecasting expertise – domestic, international, trend, fleets, master plans – give us a call. We help our clients identify the future. We don’t follow the crowd, and neither do our clients.


Don’t Miss This – Fantasy Lives!

Social Distancing & Outright Claptrap

Suggestions From An Airline At The Source

Let’s again get real. Air travel and social distancing. The two concepts are mutually exclusive.

The stuff about leaving seats open or putting plexiglass dividers between seats are malarkey. Actually, we are seeing the “solution” we are now already experiencing it, with the downward trend in lethal infections.

But, speaking of malarkey and vapor-thinking, we thought we might review some of the brilliant actions that one airline suggested to make the trip health-safe, even when the pandemic was at its peak and spreading fast. Not surprisingly, it’s from a carrier owned by the Chinese government, an organization that would make the Corlene family look like Cub Scouts.

When Nobody Can Give Feedback, You Can Say Anything. Back in February, at the height of the start of the spread of this deadly virus – due to the cover-ups by the Chinese government – one Chinese airline – again, government owned, don’t ya know – issued a list of actions that passengers could take to make sure that they would be safe flying across the friendly, albeit infected, skies of the Middle Kingdom. This was at the height of the rampant spread of the corona virus.

The babble put out is beyond incredible, but in the CCP-governed thought-bubble, there’s never much room for any counter-feedback. That was tried on a big scale back at Tienanmen Square in 1989, and didn’t work well. So, any attempt at correcting things to do with what the CCP puts out isn’t particularly high on any citizen’s to-do list.

But, it still makes a good read. Our review of recommendations issued by an “expert” from Xiamen Airlines can be found here… it’s a short fun read, and it’s still pertinent to what’s going on today, four months later.

By the way, this is part of, which we are developing into a portal of independent information on aviation in China. The Intelligence Tab is updated regularly, and our summary of airport forecasts is the only one published anywhere outside of China, where data are political first, and accurate second… or third.

Again, click here to get the gems of air service wisdom from right at the source of the pandemic.