Home

Research Reviews

Industry Studies

Boyd Group
International, Inc.
Advisors to the Aviation Industry
Since 1984
78 Beaver Brook Canyon Road
Evergreen, Colorado, 80439
303-674-2000
303-674-9995 Facsimile
aviation-info@aviationplanning.com

Design by Appaloosa

Boyd Group International now proudly offers a number of research papers and studies that illuminate issues that are at the forefront of aviation debate. These research documents go beyond the ambient thinking of today, and cover new ground.

These are the product of entirely independent efforts by the professional staff of Boyd Group International. The data and insights found in these studies today are what other analysts will be "predicting" tomorrow.
__________

Aviation Research Reports

Cuba:
An Independent Analysis of Airline
Opportunities & Challenges

Summary: The expectations of bonanza traffic are largely offset by the the state of the Cuban economy and geopolitical realities.

(Issued June 15, 2009) The US airline industry should be prepared for increased liberalization of trade with Cuba. But that also means it will need to have a realistic understanding of the scope of the opportunity. This Research Report is an independent step in that direction.

The Obama Administration's recent loosening of family travel restrictions between the US and Cuba has sparked speculation of the potential net new traffic for US carriers, both as a result of the new rules as well as congressional legislation proposing to eliminate all restrictions.

The new "VFR" - Visiting Family & Relatives - rules will, without question, tend to increase the demand for this specific traffic segment. Prior to the Bush Administration tightening the restrictions in 2004, approximately 190,000 people annually made sanctioned trips between the US and Cuba.

This Boyd Group International analysis explores the size and geographical demographics of this sector. From these it provides estimates of the expected demand, and the levels of opportunity - or lack of same - open to the US airline industry.

Also reviewed are the wider opportunities for US carriers should all travel restrictions be eliminated, as proposed by the Free Travel To Cuba Act, that has been proposed in congress.

Curiosity: High. Actual Travel Potential Is Much Lower. There is a misconception that just ending the US embargo will open a floodgate of tourist and business travel between the USA and Cuba.

The analyses in this Research Report do not support such a contention. Under any range of circumstances, there would not be anywhere near a "flood" of new air travel demand to Cuba in the near-term. Actually, there isn't even any external "gate" at the present time keeping trade or tourism out of Cuba. What most Americans do not realize is that Cuba can and does trade freely with the rest of the world, and currently has air service access to the globe. Opening up the ability for selling US goods to Cuba does not necessarily mean the Cuban government wants it. Or, can afford it.

The study also found that there is much less tourist/beach traffic potential than some have suggested.

The study reviews the fundamentals of the future demand for US-Cuba air service, without any second-agendas and with clear focus on current realities.

This Research Report candidly reviews the basic realities regarding what Cuba in its present and foreseeable state represents as an opportunity to US carriers, and which carriers have the most to gain with a partial or entire elimination of the near half-century of US travel and trade restrictions.

Cuba: An Independent Analysis of Airline Opportunities & Challenges can be ordered securely on-line by clicking here. Price: $325.
_________

The Wright Amendment:
Now For Some Facts

This is the only independent review of the issues and outcomes
of repeal or retention of the restrictions on airline service at Dallas Love Field.

(Issued July 20, 2005. Updated May, 2006.) Amid a din of partisan and parochial reports, "studies," claims and counter-claims regarding the Wright Amendment, The Boyd Group has accomplished an independent analysis that cuts to the bottom line.

The basic findings of the analysis are that most of the players in this controversy have lost sight of the massive changes in air service demand in North Texas over the last quarter-century. This is not 1979, but much of the posturing by the various players in this issue assumes that not much has changed.

A repeal of the Wright Amendment will not torpedo air service at DFW International. On the other hand, neither will such an action blacken the Metroplex skies with low-fare flights to dozens of additional destinations. Many politicians, clamoring for a repeal in the belief that their community will get Southwest service, are going to be sorely disappointed.

This study reviewed the shifting population and demographics of the region, and found that Love Field, far from being an equal part of the region's airport infrastructure, is instead being marginalized. At Love, facility limitations, access, political issues, and consumer preferences point to the danger that Southwest, even in the event of a Wright repeal, could also become an increasingly marginalized player in the Metroplex air service picture.

Accomplished independently by The Boyd Group, this study provides a clear, unbiased analysis of what the industry can expect to experience, regardless of whether the Amendment is repealed or retained.   For a PDF copy of the Table of Contents, please click here.

The report is 52 pages, and can be ordered for $195 plus $5 S&H. Federal Express overnight is an additional $20. To order securely on-line, click here.

____________

A US Airways Shutdown
The Economic Impact

(Issued January 17, 2005) A comprehensive, independent  review of the fallout that could be expected with a complete failure of US Airways. This document can provide insight regarding the effects of the elimination of a major carrier, either via shutdown or by consolidation.

All areas of the issue are explored, including effects on small and large airports, how competitors may respond, and the effects on aircraft fleets.

This analysis was done before the announcement of the acquisition of US Airways by America West. The findings are that if US Airways disappeared, "over-capacity" in key markets would not be solved, as other carriers would rush in. It is the smaller markets, those dependent on the US Airways hubs, that would see major air service damage.

Accomplished completely independently by The Boyd Group, this study provides a clear, unbiased analysis of what the industry can expect to seek if a major player shuts down. For a PDF copy of the Table of Contents, please click here.

The report is 50 pages, and can be ordered for $150 including shipping. Federal Express overnight is an additional $15. To order, click here.

_________

Research Review Papers

Research Review Papers are overviews of key events in the aviation industry, and are prepared entirely independently by the staff of The Boyd Group. Please note that the firm does not have any financial interests in the companies covered in these Research Papers. Therefore conclusions, views, and findings are entirely without any second-agendas to "make a market" or spin the stock price of the companies covered, which is often the case in reports produced in other sectors.

Research Review Papers may be downloaded on a complimentary basis, but the contents are copywritten by The Boyd Group. Media sectors are free to use the data, as long as full attribution is given to The Boyd Group.

The New Airline Metrics - 2008 - 2010. The threat of $100 oil, a collapsing air traffic control system, labor unrest, and other factors have combined to materially and fundamentally shift airline industry strategies. Plans in place as late as September 2007 are likely being tossed and completely revisited. Revenue quality, not passenger volume is the objective. International markets being re-adjusted to assure maximum domestic feed. Plus the potential for traffic demand to decline quickly and with little warning later in 2008. This Research Paper reviews these dynamics - which other analysts will be commenting on six months or a year from now. Click here to view and to download. (Issued November 12, 2007)

The ATC System: They're Not Airline Delays.They're FAA Delays. Boyd Group International has been at the forefront of the air traffic control issue for over 15 years. Our study,accomplished jointly with the ATH Group, Free Flight - The Economic Impact, reviewed the costs that the current system inflicts on the US airline industry, and outlined options to fix it. It also prompted Congressional hearings. That was in 1994, and very little has been accomplished by the FAA since that time, leaving the US air transportation system in a wallowing quagmire of flight delays and constricted air service. Click here to access the web page outlining these failures and what needs to be done.

The 787 - Successful For More Than Just Boeing. We review the potential effects of the 787 and the new production chain it represents on various sectors of the aviation industry. There are two dynamics in play. The first is the effect of "diffused production" - where Boeing designs the product, and assembles it from parts and components across the globe. The second dynamic is how this new approach opens up huge new potential for Airbus and - tellingly - for new entrants to the industry. Click here to download the Research Review in pdf format. (July 9, 2007)

Southwest Airlines - Fundamental Changes. The traditional Southwest Model has become competitively worn around the edges, and the airline is finding that just its name and quality reputation are not enough to assure its future. Our Research Review discusses challenges such facing LCC and major carrier competition, the need for an upgraded product, and the straight-jacket of operating just two types of 737s. The Paper discusses the nonsensical media lore surrounding Southwest, and the fact that it's current management will likely make changes that transform Southwest into an even more fearsome competitor by modifying its strategy and market tactics. Click here to download the Research Review in pdf format. (July 5, 2007)

___________

The Only Review of How It Works & Where It Works
The Continuous Hub Concept

Over 80 pages. Price: $125.00, plus $5.00 S&H. Or for overnight express, $25 S&H.

A "New" Concept that's decades old. American Airlines calls it "Rolling Hub." Other airlines called it by various other names, like "pinwheel hubbing." We coined the term "Continuous Hub" to describe it. Now that American has implemented continuous hubbing at O'Hare and DFW, and Delta has done so at ATL, it's become a hot topic. And, as usual, the subject of a lot of mis-information.

A decade ago, we published the first, comprehensive analysis of the concept of simply scheduling aircraft "continuously" into a hub, instead of in tightly-scheduled banks. In this extensive study, we constructed a case-study airport on which to apply the concept, and found how it could work, and the conditions needed to support such an operation.

The findings were startling: Under optimum conditions, a mega-carrier could accomplish the following:

Over 90% increase in gate-use efficiency

Over 20% reduction in manpower costs.

Major increase in competitive posture in a hub's catchment area.

Accurate Projections. This study, accomplished in 1992, not only predicted that certain carriers would eventually pursue the concept, but it also correctly forecast the application of smaller average aircraft size in the process, and, that "regional" jets would be a key factor, too. This was before such aircraft were even put into service, and at a time when most "analysts" were predicting limited use of such aircraft.

It Can't Work Everywhere. We also defined the specific conditions needed to make a continuous hub work. The size of the market. The number of flights. The traffic mix. And the adjustments to the fleet mix as well. We also correctly predicted where it might be used first - DFW and ORD, just where American has announced it.

The Establishment of "Hyper-Hubs". What many people don't understand is that Continuous Hubbing is merely a logical progression of the hub-and-spoke system, not a departure from it as some uninformed analysts claim. They haven't studied it. We have.

So if you're interested in finding where and how this "new" old technique may be used, and how it might change the future of the airline industry order a copy of this study and get familiar with the future.

______________

___________

Other Prior Studies by The Boyd Group

Airport Capacity in the 21st Century (1991)

This study analyzed the various needs in the US for future airport capacity expansion. The only independent analysis of the subject, the document reviews traffic trends and discusses the changes in public policy necessary to craft an airport system for the future.

The Wayport Concept (1990)

The Boyd Group published the only non-political and independent analysis of how a system of "remote connector airports" would work in the context of the future airline industry. The findings were that the system is inappropriate and unacceptable within that context.

The Regional Transport Jet (1989)

The Boyd Group produced the first independent analysis of the concept of the 50-seat regional jet, years before the first one took to the skies.

The study outlined the various market applications for this new category aircraft in the context of the airline industry of the 1990's. Many of the projections made in this study have now been borne out in actual fleet applications of the Canadair Regional Jet at airlines in the US and in Europe.