Hard Data. Clear Projections. No Second-Agendas

Independent Merger & Outcome Scenarios
From Boyd Group International

There's lots of talk about airline mergers and consolidations.

For financial institutions, suppliers, airport authorities, labor organizations, and investment houses, airline combinations can have material effects - both positive and negative - on their future.

Furthermore, identifying the threats and the opportunities that mergers represent, demands having clear, unbiased insight, forecasts and data. Until now, that was hard to come by.

Facts. Not Hearsay. The myths are rampant, such as mergers will reduce "excess capacity." The reality is that recent mergers of themselves have had no such direct effect on cutting out seats. In fact, Delta will be offering slightly more seats in the 3Q of 2010 compared to what they and Northwest offered last year. Another myth is that major airline combinations will result in new opportunities for "low cost" carriers. The truth is that there are few if any such merger outcomes for LLCs.

The point is that in aviation planning, facts are needed, not lore.

Merger Analyses Without Second-Agendas. Boyd Group International is the leading aviation research and forecasting firm. Our reputation for blunt, direct and clear industry projections is well established in our independent papers and in our commentary on national and international networks.

If you're looking for how merger scenarios may affect your company and your future, Boyd Group International can help. We provide an in-depth review and analysis of all aspects of potential airline combinations. We've already accomplished analyses for airports, labor unions, financial institutions and suppliers, outlining the pros, cons, downsides and opportunities specific to each client.

And because Boyd Group International has no financial interests in any airline or aviation entity, our reports are independent and give the data as-is, where-is.

The Media Isn't Well Informed. And Wall Street Has A Dog In The Fight. The problem is that much of the information and opinions expressed in the media regarding mergers are little more than sloppy parroting of "what everybody knows" - not hard analyses, and often without even a rudimentary understanding of airline industry dynamics.

Worse, a lot of the prognostications coming from airline watchers on Wall Street are from individuals or companies that have financial interests in the airlines involved. Their opinions are clearly tainted. It's difficult to be independent and unbiased when there's money to be made.

The Data You Need. Boyd Group International tailors the merger analysis to the specific needs of the client. Metrics such as comparative operational costs, labor expense, revenue flows, fleet changes, and capacity revisions, are all considered. And it's all independent of secondary agendas.

• For airports, we can focus on changes in hub access, revenue streams, fleet shifts, and competitive changes. Hub growth and pull-downs are outlined along with the ramifications of each to the client airport. Air service development programs, as well as marketing efforts to the merged airline, can be planned in advance.

• For airlines, our analyses will identify the threats and opportunities a merger of competitors may represent. This will be a powerful planning tool to address the future.

• For suppliers, we can focus on operational changes, such as schedules, fleet applications and capacity - metrics that will determine where new opportunities may arise for GSE, ancillary services, and other issues.

• For labor organizations, we drill into issues such as fleet changes, seniority issues and net loss/gain of jobs. Additional long-haul and short-haul hours are outlined in a number of potential scenarios. Members can be prepared for the shifts that mergers can bring.

• For financial institutions, Boyd Group International outlines the route and revenue synergies that a specific merger may represent. Fleet changes are often opportunities for financial houses as well.

If you're interested in planning for the future, give us a call at (303) 674-2000, or e-mail for further information on how we can focus a Merger Analysis on the specific data sets you require.

We look forward to working with you.