The Boyd Group, Inc.
Advisors to the Aviation Industry
Since 1984
78 Beaver Brook Canyon Road
Evergreen, Colorado, 80439
303-674-2000
303-674-9995 Facsimile
aviation-info@aviationplanning.com

Data Relied Upon By Leading Manufacturers,
Financial Institutions & Suppliers
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The 2008- 2017
Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast
The Only Airliner Forecast Accomplished Independently
In The Private Sector

For over a decade, aircraft manufacturers, powerplant manufacturers, OEMs and financial institutions have turned to The Boyd Group for cutting-edge - and accurate - fleet forecasts.

We are now proud to offer the 2007 - 2018 edition of our Global Airliner Fleet Forecast. It can be ordered securely on-line by clicking here.

Six Key Airliner Size Bands Are Forecast

There are lots of global issues that come into play in regard to fleet forecasts. These include specific airline strategies, existing fleet mix, emerging competition, aircraft manufacturer competition, and regional political considerations. Therefore, The Boyd Group Annual Global Airliner Fleet Forecast segments demand categories within seat capacities as follow:

Over 180 Seats
126-180 Seats
101 - 125 Seats
75-100 Seats
61-74 Seats
Regional Jets

Research by The Boyd Group indicates that these capacity & category groups effectively capture the scope of airliner platforms now in production or in the planning stages. It is also affected by the forecast itself, which, based on the data developed, points to this segmentation as being the most effective.

Not Just Data, But Global Fleet Trends, Too

The Boyd Group's Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast provides not only projections of airliner demand and retirements, but also independent reviews of the trends that are driving them.

The Global Fleet & Trend Forecast provides a range of key fleet data by region, by year, by category. The changes in fleet mix and fleet demand in each region of the globe are outlined.

The forecast comprehensively reviews year-by-year trends by airliner category and within each region of the world. The data includes projected changes in capacity, average aircraft size, as well as the percentage of new airliner demand driven by traffic growth and that driven by retirements.

Some Key Forecast Findings

As just a few examples of the data and information contained in The Boyd Group Global Fleet & Trend Forecast, we would offer the following:

• The demand for new jet airliners indicates global deliveries of just over 14,100 units through 2017. This is 20% higher than market data indicated one year ago. The main reason: the now-compelling need to retire older airliners earlier than expected. The benefits of low ownership costs are being offset by high fuel prices.
  

• Demand will be much more globally-focused. By the end of the forecast period, North America will be responsible for less than one third of new airliner deliveries, while China will be approaching 20%.

• Demand for current-generation "regional jets" is now down to approximately 365 units through 2012, and even these will be larger 75 - 90 seat models replacing 50-seaters. There are no new-technology <70 seat jet airliners in the planning stage. Therefore, some projections made elsewhere for 3,000 new small jets are simply not attainable.

• In the US, over 800 RJs will be retired from fleets. The effects on air service levels and airline strategies will be dramatic.

• Total global passenger airliner fleets will expand by 34.5% between 2008 and 2017, with China being responsible for almost one third of that increase in fleet size.
  

Again, these are only examples of the wide range of data covered in the Forecast.

Global Demand - Six Regions Covered, Including China

The following regions are segmented in the Forecast:

North America
Latin America
Europe
Africa
Asia & Pacific
China

The forecast includes a review of current fleets by category within each region, the forecast demand by category and by year, total aircraft demand, and capacity changes in each region.

A Proven & Respected Track Record. Our data and analyses are futurist, and identify emerging trends that will shape how airlines will shift and modify fleet plans in the years ahead. At The Boyd Group, we do not follow "the consensus" because we understand that the future - and the dynamics it represents - can often have no relationship to the past.

The 2008 - 2017 Global Airliner Demand & Trend Forecast continues this tradition. It is comprehensive, yet to the point. It gives clear, direct analyses of the emerging trends that will determine, year by year and region by region, the airliners that will be ordered, retired, and retained.

The Boyd Group Global Airliner Fleet & Trend Forecast is a must for any entities involved in aviation finance, planning, or support. To download a PDF of the Table of Contents, click here.

Price & Ordering Information. The 2008 - 2017 Forecast is now available for $3,250, and can be ordered securely on line by clicking here.
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Our Track Record...

There's a reason that airframe producers, powerplant manufacturers, and suppliers call on The Boyd Group for global aircraft demand forecasts...

We're the best at what we do, and we produce the best forecasts.

Our forecasts identify emerging trends and traffic flows that affect when, where, and if demand manifests for specific aircraft types. We don't blindly follow "consensus" predictions. We don't rely on current fleet needs. We look over the horizon and tell our clients - directly and bluntly - the dynamics that will shape aircraft demand.

Whether it's a comprehensive global airliner forecast, or a region-specific general/business aviation forecast, The Boyd Group is ready.

We know that fleet demand is driven by a range of complex - and sometimes non-market - factors, not just by traffic growth and retirements of older units. In fact, those are often secondary to decisions on whether to acquire one aircraft or another. Our extensive and continuing analyses of airline and aviation trends on a global basis allow The Boyd Group to provide its clients with the most incisive and accurate fleet demand forecasts possible.

Forecasting: Being Willing To Look Over The Horizon

That sounds obvious, but it's surprising how many consultants refuse to take the risk of forecasting without trying to pass the conclusions off on the "consensus" or, worse, government data.

We're not afraid to state the data as it is, even if it doesn't match what others may be saying.

The Boyd Group's extensive fleet and traffic databases result in forecasts that meet the client's specific queries. The result is a track record that speaks for itself.

• The Boyd Group is the firm which first identified the demand and the role that regional jets would play in the global airline industry - in 1989, years before the first one flew. At the time, the rest of the consulting industry was assuming that turboprops would continue to dominate the <60 seat airliner sector. Our data indicated otherwise, and we were not reticent to say so. In 1998, our forecasts then indicated that existing orders and options for RJs would exceed market demand by 2003. This, too, varied from alternative forecast sources, but it has proven accurate.

• The Boyd Group was the first to inform its forecast clients that the era of turboprop airliners would be coming to an end. That was in 1990 - when other consultants were forecasting nearly endless demand for E-120s, S-340s, and B-1900s. Increasingly, these and other turboprops are taking up space in the desert. Our forecast clients were ready for this.

• The Boyd Group was the only consultant that identified the need for a new-generation 70-110 seat airliner. That was in 1996. Today, Embraer E-Jets are the talk of the industry - now that they're here.

• Today, The Boyd Group is the only consulting firm to clearly and openly predict that there will be limited demand for very large airliners such as the A-380. That's because our databases and trend analyses indicate so. Most other consultants are keeping quiet until something becomes obvious. But, that does nothing to help clients prepare for the future.

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Join The Leaders In Aviation Who Depend On Our Forecasts

Aircraft and powerplant manufacturers, suppliers, and other firms rely on The Boyd Group's expertise in forecasting fleet demand and the trends that drive them.

The Boyd Group can provide specific aircraft demand forecasts to meet the needs of a wide range of clients. These include aircraft manufacturers, suppliers, and financial institutions. Forecasts can be crafted by aircraft category, region of the globe, and specific timeframes.

For more details, and for any specific forecast needs you may have, call Michael Boyd at (303) 674-2000.