Archives - April 2011 - July 2011

Monday July 25, 2011

News & Reviews

FAA Shutdown & Federal Fees: Now that airlines can't legally collect certain federal fees due to the FAA shutdown, they've just incorporated them into the fare. Some in the media are outraged that carriers would do this. Funny, but when it's the feds taking the money - which goes into a giant Washington vapor-hole  - that's okay. But if the airlines get it, that's bad.

Frankly, it's a wash for the consumer, and a plus for the airlines. At least now we know where the money's going.

FAA Fee-Reporting Proposal: The FAA wants airlines to report by category over a dozen fees they now collect. How about legislation requiring the DOT Secretary  to report to the American public specifically where ticket taxes and federal fees are really being spent. What's good for the goose is good for the LaHood.

American Eagle: Spinning Off What? The on-again, off-again sale, divestiture, spin-off, or whatever of American Eagle is on, again. Problem: there simply is not a big market clamor for an operator of predominantly  44-seat and 50-seat jets. In the current airline fleet environment, it's the equivalent of trying to peddle a litter of stray kittens at a dog show. There's a reason AMR wants out: these airplanes are fast becoming economically obsolete for many of the missions they once operated.

Points: There is a glut of 50-seat jets flying around already. The number of airplanes needed for small-lift outsourcing is actually declining. So, regardless of the bantam-weight Wall Street analysts who are predicting up to half a billion in sale revenue, Eagle isn't exactly a hot item.

But, there's no telling what rabbits AMR might pull out of the Eagle hat. These people didn't just fall off the turnip truck. We mere mortals may be very surprised.
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Rural Air Service Development
It's Time To Face The Facts

"Muskegon Has Great Air Service... It's Called Grand Rapids."

That was the quote from Boyd Group International in a story last week by Joe Sharkey in the New York Times.

It generated lots of buzz. The truth always does. But MKG isn't the Lone Ranger of declining local air service. It's just one of many poster-children for the new realities that small communities will have to tumble to in the coming 24 months. 

So, let's grab this by the horns and explain things a lot of communities don't want to hear.

Airline Economics Can't Be Reversed With Another Leakage Study.  The NYT story apparently - and only somewhat understandably - got some folks in the Western Michigan city churned into an indignant froth. The howls of protest were almost audible in our far-away offices at 7,900 ft altitude in Colorado. One gentleman called in, denouncing the "irresponsibility" of such a statement, and decrying our lack of professionalism.

Guess we're different. We have a strange notion that professionalism requires telling the hard facts, as-is and where-is.

 Deal With It: An Airport 50 Minutes Away Is "Local." Civic hubris not withstanding, Grand Rapids is now Muskegon's main access to the world - the "local" airport.  We didn't make that determination. The consumers in Muskegon did.

Ten years ago, Muskegon had 80,000 passengers. It still has at least that many. 'Cept 50,000 are now driving an hour or less to Grand Rapids.  MKG has 100 outbound seats per day on 2 flights. Today, consumers will find 65 departures at GRR, with 4,700 outbound seats. There's a reason that the United-branded service at MKG in the first quarter of 2010 had a miniscule 29.8% load factor. Consumers have decided GRR is their airport of choice.

Got a problem with that? Don't call us. Grab a Muskegon white pages and start dialing. We're just the messenger - and we never shy away from the truth. What we stated in the New York Times was simply illuminating what is clear reality and it's just one example of how air service in the US is evolving.

It's The Airline Industry That's Changed. Not Small Communities. Ten years ago, there was a chance of keeping MKG air service viable. We even assisted the community in getting as SCASD grant for jet service to Detroit. But the traffic didn't materialize. First 19-seat, and then 34-seat turboprops got retired. The costs of 50-seat jet operations went up, a combination of higher maintenance as the aircraft aged, and skyrocketing fuel costs. Delta pulled out. Midwest Airlines skedaddled. In came EAS supporting just two flights to ORD.

That's the end of the line. There are no other network carrier options to connect MKG to the world. Charter, or semi-charters, maybe. But for access to the globe, the writing is on the runway. The Muskegon air service Humpty-Dumpty is now a scrambled egg. It is in many other places, too.

Of course, a lot of consultant money can be made doing what we call "air service hospice" - the outcome should be quite obvious, but the community is kept comfortable with a diet of surveys, studies, leakage analyses, and other schemes. Until the last airline inevitably pulls out.  It's a type of work we don't do.

There are a lot of small communities facing real air service decisions that are not pleasant. Unfortunately some of them are getting consulting advice that validate P. T. Barnum's worldview. Do a Google search to find any number of communities that paid tens of thousands of dollars for "studies" that concluded they were great candidates for more or for new air service. Then check how many of those airports actually got service. Pretty much bupkis, baby. It was all just air service hospice work.

New Air Service Dynamics - Join Us And Get The Hard Facts. This is the type of blunt, to-the-point data that we'll be presenting at the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit. It opens with the Futurist Trend Session, where Bill Swelbar of MIT, Captain Michael Baiada of ATH Group, and staff of Boyd Group International will talk about the effects of new airline economics, new fleets, changes in alliance strategies, and the need for new aviation policies.

After that, attendees will get perspectives from industry decision-makers including CEOs of Southwest, jetBlue, US Airways, and SkyWest. There will be forecasts presented of US traffic and airport enplanement trends. Plus hard discussions of the dynamics that airports in North America will be facing in the years ahead. If you're looking for warm and fuzzy, get a puppy. If you want the hard facts, warts and all, plan on being in Albuquerque next month.

True, the inexorable trends experienced - and will continue to be experienced - in places like Muskegon, Decatur, Pueblo, Salem and Champaign may not set well with civic leaders. But ignoring it is worse.

To get a clear view of the future, join your colleagues in Albuquerque August 28-30. And consider the optional Sunday workshop The Global Airline Industry - Challenges & Opportunities For US Airports. It will outline the new imperatives of air service planning. Click Here for the Summit Agenda.
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Monday July 18, 2011

TSA's New "Suspect Traveler" Program
It's almost Rapture.

We're referring to the near-giddiness of the national media over the TSA's proposed "Trusted Traveler" program. It's become a race to see which reporter can concoct the most glowing accolades to the brilliance, the vision, and the fundamental wondrous changes this will mean for the flying public.

"Trusted Traveler" - The Concept. Citizens will pay for background checks that will allow them to supposedly get less screening, while allowing the feds to concentrate on other passengers, ominously described as "those who we don't know." One network wag pontificated that this will allow the TSA to move from random to risk-based screening. Others continually parroted some mantra that the "trusted" program will free the TSA to focus its suddenly-described "limited resources" on real threats.

Then There's The Truth. It seems just about nobody in the media got the point. Nobody ever tried to dispassionately analyze what the TSA was proposing. Nope. In most cases they marched out of the TSA briefings as true believers. The TSA is the Source Perrier of truth, justice and the American Way, don't ya know.

And that's scary. When the media starts taking the word of government officials as unquestioned gospel - which, face it, they did in this case - the government knows it need not fear any hard scrutiny.

No, It Isn't Better Security. Here are some hard facts: This program has no hard substance. It's fluff. It's a scam. Even a cursory look indicates that it can't materially reduce screening time from what it is today. Actually, if certain screening lanes are taken out and reserved only for passengers who have paid for a government background check, it could actually constrict throughput at some airports.

More:  It doesn't make us any safer, because a background check isn't a foolproof indication of not being a terrorist.  Matter of fact, it is essentially meaningless. The bad guys who have a record (and most potential terrorists probably don't) won't do it. But that brings us to the point: the inexorable outcome is that, as far as the TSA is concerned, anybody without a government-sponsored background test is in the same passenger pool with potential terrorists.

Trusting TSA With Your Background: Think Again. What was very frightening was that most of the media reports were blind advocacy pieces. They took whatever the TSA put out, and formed what looked like a media pep rally for the same TSA that was just found to have sub-standard explosive detection. The same TSA that was just found to have had at least tens of thousands of screening failures. The same TSA who is denying responsibility for the shoddy security that allowed a kid in Charlotte to stow away on a flight to Boston. Suddenly, the management of the TSA is fully competent.

Ominously, we can't find one media story that ever asked any hard questions of the TSA. Whatever the TSA put out was swallowed hook, line, and body-scanner.

Can't find a story where a reporter asked, for example, "just how much less screening will these 'trusted' passengers get?" Well, since they wouldn't, let's take a crack at it.  Trusted Ones will still have to go through a magnetomer, and they'll have to have their carry-on luggage screened. That's no change. Oh! Yeah! Maybe they can leave their shoes on! That'll save lots of time! No, maybe not, as there's no real delay involved in somebody slipping off their Florsheims while the line progresses. Oh! Yeah! Leave their laptop in the bag! No, that's no big deal either. So where is the "reduced scrutiny" that allegedly will free up the TSA to concentrate on "people they don't know."

It's Who Won't Submit. And that's the Trojan Horse in this whole deal. It's the scam perception that this new policy will create a "Trusted Traveler" category of passengers. That is NOT what the TSA is doing. Wake up and smell reality. It's actually creating a much larger "Suspicious Traveler" category - anybody who does not submit or has not submitted to a State-imposed background check  is now not to be "trusted." Smells very Stazi-like.

It is a fact. TSA officials are hiding it right in the open. Go back and listen to the comments from TSA officials: the program will allow them to concentrate on screening more risky passengers. And just who are those "risky" passengers? Well, Holy KGB, Batman! - it's those disloyal citizens who won't agree to a State-supported background check. The ones the government knows nothing about. After all, if you won't let the State look into your background, you must have something to hide and that makes you suspicious. But the good comrades who show trust in the Regime are to get a special express line.

The TSA Can't Handle It's Own Data. Wait Until They Get Yours. Another point: Not one reporter questioned if the TSA could handle the data from these background checks. Remember, the "no-fly" program that had all the effectiveness of a grocery list? Not one reporter asked just what personal data would prove somebody was "trustworthy."

Not one reporter pointed out that some, if not most, of the 9/11 hijackers could have passed a background check. Not one reporter asked what was the procedure if an applicant, in the TSA's omnipotent opinion "fails" the check. Does this mean they are to be banned from flying, based on secret and unquestionable government data? Again, very Stazi.

Final Point: This Is A Dangerous Program. It's dangerous because of what it accomplishes: making sure that citizens submit to a proven-incompetent government bureaucracy. It's dangerous because there's no scrutiny of the actual program. It's dangerous because it turns any "non-Trusted" traveler into a suspect. It's dangerous because a background check by an inept government empire isn't better security.

It's dangerous because it smokescreens what really must be done: tear down this TSA Rosemary's Baby and build a professional security system - one that has total accountability for results.

Let the Pep Rallies Continue.

 

Monday, July 11, 2011

Financial Advice on Airlines: Get A Translator, Quick!
No Subject Knowledge? Make Up New Buzz Words On The Fly

"Top aircraft carriers in the US are looking to overhaul their fleets..."

This was the tip published on-line last Friday as "Investment Commentary"  at the Motley Fool, a financial website. Since the US Navy has 11 flat tops, that should be great news for defense contractors. Several hundred additional F-35 variants should be real economic boost for the economy, too.

Alas, the investment writer wasn't talking about naval procurement. He was attempting to impersonate an airline industry financial expert, expressing profound new insights on how airlines are now - and here's a real tip you can take to your bookie - trying to replace  "gas-guzzling" fleets of planes. Guess what? According to the article, if airlines get new planes, fuel costs and maintenance expenses will probably go down. Such valuable insight! No telling the many minutes of research this guy must have done. Motley Fool should be just thrilled with the outstanding depth and quality of such "Investment Commentary."

Claiming that airlines are "re-fleeting their hangars" - a metaphor that should convince the reader that the writer has no earthly idea about the subject matter - the "Investment Commentary" continued:

Even the world’s largest aircraft carrier, Delta, is planning to add close to 200 new aircraft by the end of the year..."

More great news for Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer! That means Delta alone will be taking delivery of more than 30 airliners a month between now and December. Airframe stocks should skyrocket! Do open your wallet. And have a weenie-roast with your cash. It'll be more useful than investing on basis of garbage insight like this.

Airbus: Finally Getting A Foothold In The US? He added that an American Airlines deal would be a coup for Airbus because, as the "Investment Commentary" confidently (mis) informs the reader, "Airbus has struggled to enter the US market..."

The "Investment Commentary" apparently considers selling hundreds of airplanes over the last 20 years to United, US Airways, Northwest, America West, Hawaiian, Delta and, yes, even American, represents "struggling" to enter the market. Real expertise, eh?

Dream Up A Buzz-Word, And Poof! You're An Expert. This is not isolated. It seems anybody who claims to know the difference between "free cash flow" and "Free Willy" can be a financial advisor on the airline business, or to the airline business. Sometimes with very expensive embarrassing outcomes.

Anybody remember United's "Ted" project? Created by advisors who obviously had a hard time recognizing an airline hub from a traffic circle, it was loved by the usual-suspect financial advisors of the ilk that think airlines get airplanes to re-fleet hangars. Ted was a project that just re-painted a few dozen A-320s, put more seats on them (in the process, raising the required compliment of cabin crew, and hence costs), did away with a first class cabin, and put the airplanes right back in the schedule where they came from. That, according to the advisors from the mushroom gardens of fantasy, was all that was needed to create a "low cost airline."

Ted was brilliant. The beacon of the airline future. That's because it was a product of a deep dive into a fully-vetted, compelling-customer-product-proposition, only after intensive granular analyses into the risk/return S-curve-adjusted tortoise profitability paradigm, identifying the markets where highest analytical clock speed can be attained, with constant pressure-testing of revenue streams to automatically reconstitute margins.

And it ultimately experienced an uncontained revenue abnormality combined with a  consumer-product identity malaise, which dictated that the project be put into a re-consideration, planning hiatus mode.

Translated into common English and common-sense: Ted made zero sense from the gitgo, and fell out of the financial sky like a baby grand from an 8th floor window.

But the financial gurus loved it. To read the dimbulb Motley Fool article, click here. It's a hoot.

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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

The TSA:
It's Gilligan's Island With Body Scanners

If it wasn't so serious, it could be the makings of a cheap TV comedy featuring a cast of misfits who can't walk and eat a banana at the same time. One with really bad acting, a dumb plot line, and scripts that appear to have been written in crayon. One that would thankfully get cancelled after the first 13 weeks.

Congress and the Bush Administration, chasing their collective tails in total confusion after 9/11, created the Transportation Security Administration. It was supposed to be a tight, professional team protecting the nation from terrorists. Or so they promised.

What we got is a nationwide revival of Gilligan's Island. Now playing at airports around the country.

Stuck, Confused & Aimless. The similarities are scary - TSA is a hopelessly lost and shipwrecked mess, running around in total confusion, led by a cast of hapless incompetents who have no idea where they are or how to get off, and who get themselves into one stupid fix after another, week after week. Only, in this case, none of it is at all funny.

They're Good At Scaring Children. But Not Terrorists. First we had the incident where a six year old girl was abused in front of her helpless parents as a TSA screener pawed away at the terrified and confused child. Per the Captain of the Island, Janet Napolitano, that was just good security. Kids are often used as suicide bombers, you see. Including, it seems, an average kid from mid-America with her parents. The concept of threat identification is not in play here. It's just shooting in the dark, looking stupid, and letting terrorists know the folks at the top of the TSA are clueless.

Then there were the incidents where infants were pawed-down. Right after that, outrage in the media. Initial TSA response: it's necessary because babies could be used as shills to slip bombs on to airplanes.

Meanwhile, the entire backdoors of major airports are wide open. More scrutiny is given to the threat of something hidden in set of Pampers than under the cement truck heading for that taxiway rehab project.

According to Gilligan, played by the indomitable John Pistole, baby-pawing was at first defended as the proper thing to do. Good security, don't ya know. But in light of the public outcry, Gilligan Pistole has changed his mind and declared that babies will no longer be patted down. Great message - when no message should be sent publically.

But, according to Gilligan, that's not the case... in another venue, he's made it clear that he's going to keep the bad guys guessing:

"...I did not want to provide a blueprint or roadmap for the terrorists, saying 'Here are our new security procedures..."

Heck, when it comes to providing a roadmap for terrorists, this guy is a regular AAA.

Humiliate Senior Citizens. It's Just Good Security. Then, the event where a 95-year old lady in a terminal health condition was humiliated and forced to disrobe to prove she wasn't a terrorist. Harassing the elderly, based on random security, is yet another roadmap telling the bad guys that TSA is a bureaucracy first, and a safety organization somewhere down several levels on the list.  It is patently disgusting, yet it's defended as necessary and proper.

TSA: Our Security Has "Layers." Just Like A Roll of Charmin. And meanwhile, what about the catering facilities - and the air cargo - and the maintenance hangars? Oh, yeah, the crew of this latter-day bureaucratic Minnow will tell you it's all up tight and outta sight. Trust them, it's secure - it's that "many layers" thing. But when children and babies and old ladies are randomly abused at passenger checkpoints, anybody who believes that the rest of the airport is secure is fair game for any itinerant confidence man. Like Napolitano or Pistole.

 And finally, there was the Nigerian that successfully "pinged" the system, getting onto a flight with a bogus boarding pass, bogus IDs - and more such documents in his luggage. And if there is any doubt that this TSA Gilligan's Island is a security joke, just think about their response, telling the American public that all is well:

"It is important to note that this passenger was subject to the same physical screening at the checkpoint as other passengers,"

Yessir, that's reassuring. And that same physical screening was probably just as effective as the ID check, too.

Trouble Brewing In Paradise? It seems that some TSA screeners are now claiming that body scanners are giving them cancer. Up until now, the Captain and Gilligan could blow them off with a press release and a story or two fed to the right reporters. Now, the screeners have a union - and that means a collective voice.

So, stay tuned for the next episode of Gilligan's Island: TSA. But don't expect anything close to professional security.
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NextGen & The Media

Speaking of feeding stories to the right reporters, we'd point out the Hot Flash of June 13, where we illuminated how the FAA's NextGen folks have some of the media following them around like adoring shaggy dogs, lapping up whatever is tossed out, regardless of facts or history. (Go There)

Almost on cue, an AP reporter last week did exactly that, once again. A glowing piece on the progress and wonders of NextGen, without a shred of investigation into the history or the real lack of progress of the program. It extols NextGen - and steadfastly refuses to even consider that delays are not improving, and that the program is years late and continuously slipping. Nope, the reporter took what was fed, and ran with it.

"What's the alternative?" the reporter asked, when informed she might inquire about the delays, cost overruns and program incompetence. The answer, "A true Free Flight  system that is designed to meet the nation's air transportation needs of the future, instead of just replacing radar with GPS... and maybe some accountability for results..."

Not the right answer. Not the one the reporter was fed by the NextGen PR machine. And certainly not one that fit the intent of the story, which obviously was to be a cheerleader for the FAA. Take a look at the article (Click here) and then go to the June 13 Hot Flash. You'll get the point.

It's amazing how supposedly professional journalists can so easily be turned into willing wind-up toys.
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New Staff Joins Boyd Group International

Small Community Air Service Development Grants - 2011 

If you're contemplating a SCASD application, discuss it with us first.  We've assisted our clients in winning more SCASD dollars - $22 million - than any other consultant

The US airline industry in 2011 is very different than just a year ago. Air service is shifting from "local" to "regional." The reduction in "regional jets" is accelerating. There's the re-focus from airline "brand" to airline alliance. Boyd Group International is the only consulting and research firm that has accurately and openly forecast changes such as these. That's how we craft SCASD applications that work.

We understand the future, and we'll give it to you straight. For the top five reasons to have Boyd Group International assist your community, click here.
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Monday,  June 27, 2011

For Boeing, It Probably Felt More Like
The Waterloo Air Show

From the beginning of the event, the scoreboard looked like it was a match between the Dallas Cowboys and the East Nowhere High School Junior Varsity. A wipe out.

We're taking about the orders and MOUs for new airliners announced each day last week at the Paris Air Show. Based on what was announced publically between Tuesday and Friday, it was more than a  just a matter of a rivalry anymore between evenly-matched opponents. The messages are clear, and they signal a whole new day in the airframe world.

Scraping together snapshot announcements for orders and MOUs for just the days noted, a quick and very rough tabulation, and the scoreboard reads something like this:

 

Wipeouts like this are usually seen only at surfing competitions. The final tally was something like Airbus 900 v Boeing at 142.

Of course, this is just a preliminary total. It is not the complete Paris tally, nor the year-to-date order book for either company, and there may be more deals in the works.  And inside these data there may be  vapor orders, phantom customers, fleet-swap deals, and commitments from airlines that don't have enough credit to buy a '78 Yugo off the lot at Fast Eddie's Used Car Emporium. But the indications are clear: it's a new day in the airframe and powerplant industries. The  Paris Air Show is the #1 show and tell event, and Boeing had a lot less to tell.

Cheap oil is gone, and airlines are anticipating the future prospect of $4+ jet-A. Over 90% of the A-320 platform orders at Paris were NEOs, which are at least three years away from coming off the production line. This doesn't include the 30 A-321NEOs that jetBlue switched from a prior order for vanilla A-320s. What this points to is that the market may well view the current 737 line as, well, so yesterday. That sets all sorts of new dynamics into play at airlines, leasing companies, suppliers, financial houses, and within the airframe & powerplant industries.

Decisive & Instructive. Make no doubt about it. The Paris Air Show was for Boeing what the US military suddenly discovered on the morning of December 7, 1941. It's way behind the curve in the marketplace, it's perceptually behind the technology curve (accurate or not, the Airbus orders speak volumes), and the competition is clawing global territory away at a rocket pace.  

Excuses such as "Airbus didn't take one Boeing customer away" are non sequiturs: The fact is that Airbus is perceived to have a new airliner in the A-320NEO. The fact is that over 750 A-320NEOs were ordered.

Boeing doesn't have a new 737, at least in the eyes of the airlines that ordered Airbus units. The arguments can go on, but at the end of the day, it's clear that in the single-aisle category - which spanning the scope of demand in the next ten years is the prize - Boeing is now behind the curve.

  While Boeing has discussed a new-generation or "semi-new generation" single-aisle airliner, Airbus took the latter option and has blown the 737 onto the market sidelines with the re-engined A-320NEO platform. No, it's not a clean-sheet airplane like the Bombardier C-Series, but it's what's on the market and it's based on an existing and "known" airframe. The orders and options book say that the market sees it as superior to what's coming out of Renton.

One take away that's being missed in the media: Boeing is not some inert mass. It got hammered, but that means it will likely react aggressively. Like the big A-320 orders in the late 1980s that got Boeing's attention, the market has signaled a new direction. The problem for Boeing is that even with a new 737 variant, the big orders from emerging Asian carriers are gone.

The North American Market Is Now In Play. Of interest, other than Republic (which just announced a need for restructuring Frontier) and jetBlue, US carriers were not on the aircraft-order leader board. Absent. On the sidelines. Silent.

But you can bet they were active behind the scenes. Delta, United, and particularly - yes - now American are in the market for new fleets. And Southwest? They're facing a US market that by 2016-2017 might feature the competition operating fleets that are materially more fuel efficient than the 737-700/800s they will be receiving to replace 300/500s. Not a minor consideration.

Okay, let's talk US airline fleet strategies. There was the report that American was talking to Airbus about a 100-airplane order. Traditionally and historically, these types of reports are just red herrings to get the other vendor - in this case it would have been Boeing - to play ball. But, wait. American has a complete, nearly 1-for-1 fleet renewal plan already in place with Boeing, right?

Technically, yes. But it contemplates replacing its 200+ MD-80s over a period of years. With the specter of go-juice hitting $4 or more a gallon, American may not have the competitive luxury of having a lot of time to get this older iron off the ramp. So, it's not a big jump to consider that AA may be re-thinking it's fleet schedule, and even whether the 737-800s are going to be fuel-cost competitive with other carriers that will have A-320s (or C-Series airliners) with new generation engines such as the PW-1000G.

And Southwest, with a fleet of 737-300/500s that are in line for replacement? Will current-generation 737-700s be competitive with carriers flying 320NEO fleets?

Get The Report. Boyd Group International has produced its latest Aviation Research Report on the new and emerging Global Airliner Market. This is no longer the same game. What Paris has demonstrated is a whole new battlefield, and it's one that has very serious implications for not only airlines like American, Delta, and Southwest (the latter, big-time), but for new airliner market entrants like Sukhoi and Mitsubishi who may be frozen out due to the strategic and tactical changes in the airline business due to the elimination of Cheap Oil.

The Aviation Research Report, North American Airliner Market: New Fleet Criteria, can be reviewed and downloaded by clicking here.

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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

NextGen Scores Again…

On time... On budget... On another planet.

The DOT Inspector General has found that a key component system for YesterdayGen is now over two years behind schedule and $150 million over cost estimates. Somehow, we didn’t see this covered much in the mainstream aviation media. Nor has there been a peep from any of the industry organizations that are just sooo eager to play rhythm guitar in this NextGen hootenanny. 

Yes, to criticize NextGen is an indication of not being a team player. But this is a team that's playing with rigged rules in front of what appears to be a stadium filled with deaf and blind fans rooting it on.

See, "everybody knows” that NextGen is the solution. In 1492 “everybody knew” the world was flat, and urged Columbus to stay home and open a pizza parlor instead of going for a boat ride.

Frontier

Lots of media repetition of the challenges facing Frontier. Some of it from the same parts of the Peanut Gallery that in 2008 declared – without a shred of hard data – that Frontier couldn’t survive in Denver, supposedly sandwiched in between United and Southwest.

These august folks, not to mention an irresponsible article or two in financial newspapers, spooked the carrier’s newly-hired credit card processor to withhold the carrier’s cash, shoving it into bankruptcy. The real data showed that operationally F9 was kicking tail and taking names - with higher load factors and higher yields in virtually every market where it competed with Southwest.

Now, we have many of the same types of suspects babbling the same "Frontier can't compete with Southwest" story. To be sure, the situation is much different than in 2008 - with Frontier being brand- balkanized between DEN, MKE, MCI, not to mention some weird offshoot flying (Provo, Utah, once a day?). But that doesn't mean that the carrier cannot re-circle the wagons (A-319s?) around Denver, where it has strong brand loyalty, and regardless of the me-too stories in the media, can compete, just as it did earlier.

Nah. Everybody knows that can't happen.

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Monday, June 13, 2011

Update...
jetBlue CEO To Present At International Forecast Summit

We are very pleased to announce that Mr. Dave Barger, CEO of jetBlue, will be presenting his perspectives of the future of air service trends at the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, August 28-30, in Albuquerque.

As our regular attendees know, this is not just another conference. It really is a Summit. A summit of ideas. A summit of new views of where aviation is headed. A summit of leaders from all parts of aviation. A summit where ideas and futurist concepts are openly discussed, no-holds-barred.

Fewer Small Jets. More Air Service Regionalization - Get A View of The Future. Airports: be sure to also register for the optional Sunday afternoon workshop, The Global Airline Industry: Challenges & Opportunities For US Airports. It is going to cover ground that will set new perspectives for all areas of airport strategy. Perspectives that the me-too events miss entirely.

Leadership Discussions. Not Milquetoast Panels. The International Aviation Forecast Summit is the one event that delivers key perspectives for the future. No dancing around the issues. As we've often pointed out, this is where sacred cows in aviation thinking often  get barbecued. If you're preparing for the future, join your colleagues in Albuquerque. In addition to Mr. Barger, the lineup of the industry leaders to be participating in forecast discussions at the 16th Annual Aviation Forecast Conference now includes:

Southwest Airlines – Gary Kelly, CEO
American Airlines – Susan Garcia, VP Information Technology
WestJet - Dr. Hugh Dunleavy, EVP Strategy & Planning
Delta Air Lines - Holden Shannon, SVP - Corporate Strategy
Frontier Airlines – Daniel Shurz, VP
Great Lakes Aviation – Chuck Howell, President
Pinnacle – Phil Reed, VP Networks & Operations
SkyWest – Chip Childs, President & COO
Pratt & Whitney – Paul Finklestein, VP Marketing
Airbus – Simon Pickup, Director
Bombardier – Jerome Cheung, Director
ATH Group – Capt. Michael Baiada, CEO
MIT – William Swelbar – Research Engineer
Cape Air - Andrew Bonney
SkyWest - Mike Thompson
Armbrust Aviation – John Armbrust, CEO
Allied Pilots Association - Captain David Bates, President

In addition, discussion session participation is being confirmed with Boeing, Lufthansa, oneworld Alliance, and Japan Air Lines.

Plus: Forecast & Strategic Planning Data. This is in addition to the Forecast sessions that are the cornerstone of the Summit. These are not the "consensus" presentations that are experienced at other industry events. These are hard projections that don't always track with other sources - because at  Boyd Group International, we are not a part of the good-ole-boys consulting network. We're not really concerned about the "consensus." All that matters is hard facts. not ambient thinking. We present our data as-is, and where-is.

If you have not yet registered, we'd suggest doing so soon. The Hyatt Tamaya Resort is booking quickly. Click here for more info and to register securely on-line.

 We look forward to seeing you.

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Yup. ATC Is Making Great Progress.
Just Ask That "Briefed" Network Reporter.

It never fails to amaze at how gullible - or, maybe in some cases, outright sloppy - some of the media can be when it comes to reporting on the "progress" of the FAA's NextGen.

Otherwise-savvy network correspondents are invited to a dog-and-pony show by the NextGen folks, and out they come like starry-eyed converts exiting a Gospel Tent.

Looking into the on-site camera, reporting live at 6PM in front of the FAA headquarters, Steve Cute, the network's alleged aviation expert shares the Beatific Vision with the studio anchors:

"Well, Ted and Angie, relief is just around the corner for delay-weary air consumers! The FAA just briefed us on a new breakthrough program they're developing to unclog the crowded skies. It's called NextGen, and it's shifting control of airplanes from outdated radar to satellite technology.  Here, let me show you how it works..."

Speaking over B-roll of an FAA control center, the new-believer correspondent points to how airplanes are now vectored across the sky in de facto corridors. "NextGen will let more airplanes fly in straight lines, reducing flight times, cutting emissions, and getting passengers to their destinations on time..."

"Yessir. Ted, it's just a few years more, and if Congress appropriates the money, we'll have the miracle of NextGen by say, 2018!. Back to you in the studio."

Great reporting. The only thing missing is facts. But the correspondent has the "facts" - he got 'em from the FAA, for crying out loud. No need to check further. No need to ask "how much" - like how much will NextGen really reduce off-schedule flights. Or how much it's really going to cost. Or how much the whole thing is really behind schedule. They come out of these briefings like wind-up toys. Which is just what the NextGen folks are counting on.

If NextGen Sold Stock, They'd Be In Jail. What Steve Cute, not to mention co-anchors Ted Smooth and Angie Airhead back in the studio, don't bother to ask is about the great progress this shooting match has made since it was monikered as "NextGen" several years ago. Like, none. As journalists, one might think they'd ask a question or two, checking their sources. Instead, they tacitly take the role of NextGen cheerleaders.

The truth is that NextGen is just a huckstered-repackaging of programs that are essentially late, of indeterminate effectiveness, and over cost. It's the latest demon spawn of earlier programs that the FAA failed at over the past 20 years. In 1993, for example, the FAA told the world that their then ATC program du jour would solve things by 2001. Here we are ten years later. Steve Cute and his colleagues don't bother to question their sources - literally or figuratively.

The Progress Is Astounding. None. The DOT just reported the April, 2011 "delay" stats. More correctly, they are the "off-schedule" statistics due to the fact that airlines find it necessary to add minutes to every flight schedule to accommodate the inefficiencies of the ATC system. One out of four flights was 15 minutes or more off-schedule in April. We went back and compared the first four months of years 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2011:

Keep in mind that billions have been spent on NextGen (or whatever it was being called) since 2004. And the results? Essentially zip. The percentages go up and they go down, but there is no progress made whatsoever that the consumer can experience.

Boyd Group International has been alone in pointing out that NextGen is really YesterdayGen. Yes, it's counter to what "everybody knows." And it's certainly not popular in some circles. But regardless of how many sunshine news stories are concocted, or how many politicians are pushing it, or how many consultant cabal associations pander to the FAA, facts are facts. Truth is not a matter of public opinion nor of consensus beliefs.

Each year at our annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, we review this program. And every year it's the same: no real results. But the NextGen folks know that all they need to do is invite Steve Cute and his colleagues to a PR event, and the usual suspects in the media will go to bat for them. No questions asked.

Meanwhile, 20% - 25% of flights continue to arrive more than 15 minutes off-schedule, costing airlines and consumers billions.

The FAA is very confident that Steve and his friends will make sure that the public won't be bothered with such trivia. And the delays will go on.

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New Staff Additions

We're pleased to welcome two new members to the Boyd Group International team.

Daniel Cohn has been appointed Director - Aviation Planning. He joins the firm from Delta Air Lines, where he held the position of Team Leader - Flight Profitability. Prior to the merger, Dan was Senior Financial Analyst, responsible for monitoring of Northwest Airlines' current schedule performance. He will be working with the firm's forecast, financial analysis and tactical planning practice. He holds an MBA in finance from the Daniels School of Business at the University of Denver.

Kris Vogt has joined Boyd Group International as Senior Report Developer & Analyst. He will be responsible for the day-to-day operations and long-term development of the firm's industry-leading Aviation DataMiner suite of industry intelligence products. With over 25 years of experience in advanced information systems, programming, and web development, Kris will be working to assure that DataMiner continues to set the standard for aviation Strategic Firepower.

Just The Start. Dan and Kris are examples of how Boyd Group International is moving to assure that our clients have access to the strongest, most aggressive, and most innovative team in aviation.

We understand that the traditional role of passive consulting is now out of date. (Wait for the client to call, and then learn about the subject matter - at the client's expense, by the way.) We're different. We are aviation experts first, and that provides superior expertise when our clients call.

Pro-active, independent thinking and planning is the future, and Boyd Group International is adding the professional expertise to assure our clients stay ahead of their competition.

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Monday, June 6, 2011

In Praise of Carbon Caps

From time to time, people find the True Religion. The Sacred Agenda not to be questioned.

Even if common sense says that it's bogus, that's not important. The Sacred Agenda is a Jihad that vanquishes all opposition, not with rational thought and reasoning, but with the brute force of branding any such questions as evil, stupid, and not worthy of any response beyond personal attacks. The masses learn quickly that they either join the New Belief or suffer consequences.

Typically, the Sacred Agenda is postured as something that demands total obedience, without question. The High Priests and their acolytes will tell you what to believe, whether it makes sense to you or not. In ancient times, non-believers were put to the sword. Today, they are condemned as idiots not worthy of discussion. It's the intellectual equivalent of the old apartheid program of "banning." The non-believer is not to be given any credibility, even to the slimy point of declaring them "deniers," which in today's parlance references them to be akin to people who supported Adolf Hitler. True Beliefs do not require facts. They require total blind obedience.

Eventually, it becomes something that most folks simply don't want to criticize for fear of the retribution and sneers from not only the High Priests, but also from the sheep herds of the masses who believe it because they see it all the time on the evening news, in the newspapers, and on trendy interviews with Hollywood celebrities. Question the Sacred Agenda, and the retaliation will be instant branding of the individual as a hopeless moron, or as noted above, worse. Facts threaten these True Believers.

The EU's Sacred Agenda: Carbon Caps. Today, we have just such a True Religion. It's in the EU - although it has lots of followers in North America, too. It's called the Emissions Trading Scheme. And, it truly is a scheme.

The deal is this: any airline that lands or takes off at an EU airport would be forced to buy carbon offsets as penance for all the bad stuff that airplanes supposedly spit into the atmosphere. Not mentioned is that these "offsets" become instruments that get bought and sold - and people can make money on such trades.

Now, anybody who wants to leave this intellectual Middle Ages can conclude that this is just another tax that won't do diddly to change the environment. All that gelt collected by the Holy Political Priests running the Church of Climate Change won't make polar bears happier, or spotted owls lay more eggs, or give us more trees to hug. It's just a trendy tax that on one hand is postured as good for the environment, on another is intended to teach people not to travel, and at the bottom line is fixing to make carbon cap traders rich. 

Let's tell it like it is: the whole thing is trendy Luddite hogwash.

Okay, crank up the torture machines. We're heretics.

Great News For DFW, IAH, YVR, DTW, ATL. But, we're capitalist heretics, too. We can see a golden lining in this EU cloud of indignant climate change righteousness.  See, the oh-so-politically-correct folks pushing this hypocritical carbon trade lunacy think the EU is just a set of destinations. What they don't get is that we're in a global economy, and it's global air transportation flows that are the future. It's what Boyd Group International has identified as Global Portals, not international hubs, as the future.

For example, the largest emerging trade flows are between Asia and Latin America. To get people and goods from the hundreds of secondary points in China, for example, and secondary points in LatAm, a connecting point is needed. Nonstops between Wuhan and Manaus aren't in the cards. But flowing them over a Global Portal is the key - basically a US-style connecting hub, but it connects continents, not just cities.

Emirates is doing it today.  The problem is that Dubai only has a long-haul catchment area. CDG and FRA, and YVR, and DFW have the benefit of a huge, rich catchment area within a 700KM radius.

And that gets us back to the EU and their Sacred Agenda to tax airlines for their sins of emission. Lufthansa has claimed that the EU pay-to-clear-your-guilt fees will add half a billion dollars to their costs. No telling what Air France/KLM or British Airways will need to cough up. (No word from Michael O'Leary on the matter. Or, maybe nobody has printed it.)

What this means is that the EU plan is going to make airports like CDG and AMS and FRA non-competitive as Global Portals, leaving hub operations in more rational regions - such as DFW/AA or YVR/AC or ATL/DL for starters - as more effective places to interconnect global trade. (Take a look at the stage lengths between Asia and LatAm - North American points are very distance-competitive, particularly when the catchment areas are factored in.)

So, from a rational and factual point of view, the EU and it's Emissions Trading Scheme is crackpot and aimed at setting mankind back a couple hundred years. (Hey, wonder if they compared airline emissions to, say, the cement industry in Thailand, or some industrial regions in China. Nah.) But from the futurist perspective of emerging global trade, it's a great thing for US and Canadian hubsite airports.

It's always great when the competition shoots itself in the foot. Message to the EU (we probably need to write this in crayon on recycled paper to get their attention): Full speed ahead. Do the carbon cap boogie. Tax your air travel into the ecologically-clean mud.

Join Us In Albuquerque For More Heresy. The concept of the Global Portal and the effects this trend will have on airports and air service across North America will be covered from several perspective at the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit in Albuquerque, August 28-30.

If you're into hard perspectives regarding the future, join us. And expect to find a whole range of concepts that challenge the consensus. It's an event that focuses on facts, not groupthink. Click here for details and to register.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Can't Wait For LaHood's Response On This One...

After a three hour weather delay at Atlanta, passengers arriving at 1AM at Daytona Beach found themselves off the airplane, but locked in the terminal, unable to get out. Passengers had to call 911 to ask authorities to let them loose.

Wonder if our consumer-beagle Secretary of Transportation will now start to consider "lounge delay" rules along with his "tarmac" dictums.

"... American consumers have the right not to be incarcerated by uncaring airports, obviously intent on selfishly increasing concession revenues," LaHood might be expected to blurt out. "Just let those guilty airports try to come to me for discretionary funds! Besides, high speed rail will put an end to these consumer outrages...

... I think."

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In The DataFlash... The 50-Seat Brick Wall

We take a look at raw data for American Eagle. They outline the coming conundrum facing entities that are in the financial cross-hairs of the growing glut of 50-seat jets.

Click here - when put in context, these data represent an industry-wide traffic challenge that will affect several million consumers and their access to air service.
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Monday  May 23, 2011

An Export Opportunity?
Wanted In India: Monkey-Consultants

It seems that Ahmedabad airport in India will shortly be putting out a request for consultant proposals.

"AAI has invited expression of interest from consultants for carrying out study on the monkey menace in Ahmedabad and some other airports where simians are creating trouble for officials. The consultant will prepare a detailed report on their behavior, actions and hideouts near the airport. The report will also recommend possible solutions to tackle the problem."

It seems that these folks are looking for a consultant with experience in, well, monkey business. They could have a fertile choice here in the States, given some of the fruitcake RFP responses coming out of some firms. Creative writing seems to be a new trend.

So, we thought it might be interesting to think of some of the jive responses that could be expected from the usual suspects in the US if they go after the Ahmedabad. deal. Creativity - and ethical license - will be the order of the day. Loosely paraphrasing some of the actual proposal comments we've seen recently, to fit the Ahmedabad situation, here are some of the comments we might expect:

"... We're  headquartered  just down the street from the US Congress - so we have every-day experience in how primates think, operate, and strategize..."

".. we provide monkey-consulting services on a current, on-going basis to dozens of airports in the US and internationally... with one of our associates actively assigned to each airport..."

"... we propose to conduct an internet survey, to determine where these monkeys want to fly..."

"... Travis the Chimp was one of our clients. Until he met his untimely end..."

"... the time zone difference between the US and India is not a problem... I'm always available! I've got a Blackberry! I'm so dedicated that one time I even took a client call while waiting for an oil change at the Jiffy-Lube!"

"... Our MIDT analysis will provide hard data on what part of the jungle the creatures are really coming from..."

"... Our consultants are on a first-name basis with primates at zoos around the nation. These relationships will provide a unique understanding of why you have chimpanzees relieving themselves on runway 9/27..."

"... judging by the mess they've made on your parking ramp, it gives a whole new meaning to the term 'leakage study'..."

"... we will immediately contact businesses in the area and establish a Banana Bank..."

The sad part is that this isn't too far from at least the flavor of the drivel that some consultants cram into air service proposals. What's worse is that sometimes airports actually take it seriously.

Based on some of the stuff being sent out to airports, just making bogus claims to have expertise to herd simians off runways is pretty run of the mill. We've seen proposals claiming on-going work with airports that didn't know such a relationship even existed. Or new service claims where the airline's decision really didn't have anything to do with the consultant. How 'bout billion-dollar multi-national consulting firms that don't know what a "certificated carrier" is, and then charge a couple hundred bucks an hour for the privilege.

Then there are the various consultant associations, some of which are not above tossing pandering awards to incompetent federal officials who clearly couldn't walk and chew Doublemint at the same time.

Sometimes standards get murky, to say the least. It really gives the consulting industry a black eye, and encourages the take-your-watch-tell-you-the-time-and-bill-you stories.

In the meantime, best of luck to the folks in Ahmedabad. They'll have no trouble finding what they're looking for.

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In The Latest Aviation DataFlash...

We're monitoring traffic and capacity at Denver, at it appears that if the trends continue, Southwest will eclipse United as the #1 domestic O&D carrier. Just as interesting, of all Southwest enplanements at DEN, over 38% are now flow (connecting and through) passengers. Denver now is essentially the only major US airport to host three full-blown airline connecting hub operations

Click here for the update.

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Monday  May 16, 2011

Another Reason To Put Money Into A Sealy Posturepedic
Instead of Where Wall Street Suggests...

The quote of the week:

"...This deal (the AirTran merger) will allow Southwest to spread its network into key underserved areas like Atlanta and Washington, D.C... I think it's about time we make room for Southwest in our portfolios."

This was the profound statement from a  financial analyst on the Motley Fool website last Friday. Wow! Open the checkbook. Truly informed insight! And truly another indication that industry knowledge is not a prerequisite in some circles before making investment advice.

Most of us in the industry didn't know that ATL and Washington were "underserved." And, some of us mere mortals outside of the moldy halls of the financial analysis world thought that Southwest already was in the Washington market. Silly us.

Wall Street "analyst"  advice - Caveat Emptor.
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Update: 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit
Want A Glance At The Air Service Future?

This year, we're again covering all the areas that affect how airports, airlines, manufacturers and suppliers will deal with the future. What Boeing decides in regard to a next-generation 737 will affect how airports will need to plan in regard to new and additional facilities. The success or lack of success of follow-on small jets such as the MRJ and the Sukhoi SSJ will also affect air service levels as 50-70 seat RJs are retired. We're covering it all. And expect no waffling or sugar-coating.

Airports: Plan For Life After Scheduled Flights. Changes in public policy will also be reviewed. The fact is that the current scope of air service in North America cannot be sustained in a world with $3 jet fuel. Regionalization is coming, like it or not. A lot of airports which once had vibrant scheduled passenger service need to start considering alternative revenue flows - because in ten years, virtually all areas of the US will still have air service access - but from a lot fewer airports. No matter what the price of unleaded may be - the drive to the airport  will be a lot longer to get a flight.

Join Us For A Futurist Workshop. On the afternoon of August 28, a special optional workshop will be held, The Global Airline Industry - Challenges & Opportunities For US Airports. This is not going to be another go-over-the-metrics event. It is going to pull the curtain back and outline the real trends that will shape North American air service - and it's not all pleasant.  The days of just doing a study, a leakage analysis, or a flashy airline presentation are over. Accurately preparing for the new types of air service - on the upside and downside - is the future.

It is a session that will cut through the traditional perspectives of how airports and regions will need to plan for the future. In five years, perhaps sooner, it won't be the airline planning department that will have exclusive thumbs-up-or-down decision-making on where the carrier flies. The Alliance will be increasingly involved. We'll be covering where carriers and their alliance will stake out territory, and where they will cede it to the competition. (It's already happening.)

We'll be covering the futurist view of air service in 2020 - the fleets, the carrier systems, the strategies, the tactical approaches airports will need to prepare for. Complete details will be posted on the Aviation Forecast Summit website this week.

A Full Schedule. We now have speakers confirmed from American, Lufthansa, oneworld, US Airways, Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney, and more. Our keynote speaker is Gary Kelly of Southwest. The Monday evening event will be at the International Balloon Museum, and we guarantee that is only part of the entire Summit that will involve any hot air whatsoever.

A complete outline can be accessed by clicking here.
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Atlanta, AirTran, Southwest & New Markets
No Real Clinkers?

Shifting to something that a lot of Wall Street types ignore - a.k.a. hard data - we looked at January AirTran load factors for Atlanta, and came up with some interesting perspectives:

The top ten load factor markets are all major metro airports - except two. Bloomington/Normal, and Rochester, New York. Both had load factors well above the AirTran ATL average of 71%.

Of the bottom ten FL ATL load factor airports, Southwest is already serving four of them. Only two, ACY, and ICT would appear to be long-shots for Southwest. 

Pensacola could be distantly problematic due to the WN commitment to ECP. Newport News has apparent challenges in that it is geographically close to Norfolk, but that may be countered in that due to topography PFN is essentially a separate market.

The basic conclusion: As far as ATL goes, it looks like there may not be a really bad apple in the nonstop barrel, give or take as subsidy market or two.

It's all in the latest Aviation DataFlash.
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Monday  May 9, 2011

Questioning The Consensus:
Like Shooting Fish In A Barrel

On August 29, 2011, at the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, there will be a unique opening session that will set the pace for the entire event. The Futurist Trends Session.

As our regular attendees know, the Summit is not like other industry events. It's all about exploring new concepts and new perceptions of the aviation industry. And, it typically skewers any number of sacred beliefs in the industry.

Some of the areas the Futurist Trends Session will cover:

Fuel - Reshaping Aviation. It's not just a matter of fares going up, or getting charged for things like baggage, snacks or the right to talk to a live airline employee on the phone (even if he is at a call center in Mumbai, and sharing calls with the GE Dishwasher hotline.). Oil prices are fundamentally changing how airlines operate - what aircraft they can fly, where they fly, and the product they offer. General rule: as fuel costs go up, the scope of the air transportation system goes down.

As our forecasts first outlined, the day of the RJ is over - and, despite silly "analyses" to the contrary, they are not coming back, nor will there be any replacements. The basic economics of air transportation historically have been dependent on cheap oil. (If you haven't noticed at the local Gas & Go, cheap oil is gone like the dodo.) Without question, that means big changes in where and how airlines can operate profitably. Entire hub systems will be re-structured in the next 36 months. This will affect airports and airport facility needs. It will affect fleet renewal schedules. It will affect the relationships between major airlines and their lift-suppliers, a.k.a. regional airlines.

We'll be covering the key dynamics of what this will mean for airports, airlines, and for suppliers. Here's a hint. when go-juice goes up 50% in one year, airports need a lot more than a customer survey and a leakage study to plan for the future.

The Bloomington/Yeager Effect - Coming Across North America. As for air service, regionalization is the future. And communities won't necessarily need to mud-wrestle over where air service will stay and were it will go away. Like it or not, the simple gravity of evolving airline economics will do the job of performing regional air service triage. It's already happening.

Probably the #1 poster-child is Central Illinois Regional Airport in Illinois. In the mid/late 1990s, it had around 90K O&D. Today, it's over 500K. The reason is that air traffic demand and air service trends have naturally regionalized toward BMI. Not real comforting to Champaign or Decatur or Springfield, but it is hard economic reality. Charleston/Yeager in West Virginia is also seeing this happen, with increases in both leisure-focused and business-focused capacity.

Federal Funding. Federal funding for airports and airway infrastructure are a question mark. Should the burden be put more squarely on the user base with point-of-sale taxes, as in Canada? US airports near the Canadian border are benefitting from this situation, but will it continue?

Of course, there's the on-going fight over FAA funding. Congress can't seem to be able to decide how many pork-earmarks and political pay-offs they want to hang onto any reauthorization bill. So it wallows around the hallowed halls of Congress.

Meanwhile, we have the pandering idiocy of "high speed" rail, which any school dropout could determine won't be high-speed. But there's a strict prohibition directly from Ray LaHood that airlines are not to exercise their free-speech if they demur from the administration's intent to toss $8 billion at projects that have almost zero independent analysis. Meanwhile, the FAA is wandering in the dark regarding its own funding, and the administration has suggested slashing discretionary funds.

Federal Dictums & Regulations. Under LaHood, the DOT is posturing itself as the consumer-crusader, protecting the public from all sorts of imaginary evil. To be fair, some of the DOT consumer proposals - particularly in the areas of full-ticket-cost disclosure, are hard to argue with. Others, however, such as the "Tarmac" rule, supposedly "banning" 3-hour delays, border on being dishonest - implying that the airline industry is a pack of pirates intent on abusing the flying public.

One can only wonder if LaHood may follow the EU model - which wants to slap taxes on any form of living that is above the level of Ogg The Cave-Dweller, including travel. Carbon taxes on airlines, for example, are popular, with zero forecast on whether the money will eventually give polar bears more icebergs to float around on. Or the French proposal to tax air passengers and just give the money to "poor" countries. 'Course, no determination will be made as to the reason those countries are "poor" in the first place. But we can be sure that fine folks like Robert Mugabe will gladly open another Swiss bank account with all that dough extorted from airline consumers in the EU, and possibly North America, too. The question to be addressed is how far can this lunacy go, and will it reach North America.

NextGen - The Computerized Carrot-On-A-Stick. And of course, the non-progress of the NextGen ATC system will be again reviewed. Every year it's the same old song - the program's making progress, give or take major delays that keep putting it farther and farther into the future. Two years ago, Jim May, president of the Air Transport Association told the Summit that ATA was taking airline executives to key members of congress to urge funding for NextGen. That did wonders, apparently.

Get Ahead Of The Planning Curve. Join Your Colleagues In Albuquerque, August 28-29. This is just part of the opening session of the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit.  There's another day and a half of incisive forecasts and discussions with real aviation leaders. Over the two days of the Summit, nobody falls asleep.

An outline of the Forecasts at the event, and the speaker sessions can be found by clicking here.

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Monday  May 2, 2011

Southwest - AirTran Merger
Attention Media

 The deal closes today. There will be the usual me-too stories about the "Southwest" effect, plus the local reporting about how the deal will change mankind as we know it.

For some hard data comparing the two carriers, like, real facts and figures instead of panting hyperbole, and what the merger will really mean to many communities, check out the only independent review of the deal. Click here.

Fourth Quarter 2010: Fares Up. Plan On Future Traffic Down

Quarter 4 2010 O&D data have been reviewed and are now on line for subscribers of Aviation DataMiner to download and analyze.

There was a lot of funny reporting, due to the United/Continental merger, not to mention the musical airplanes within the Republic system. We've filtered most of this to accurately represent the brand involved. (Other sources just report it as-is. DataMiner knows the industry.)

Raw Fares: The real take-aways is that average fares are up 9.2% compared to a year earlier - from $146.79 to $172.45. That does not include the increased in ancillary fees, which are estimated to tack another 2.5% onto the year-over-year cost of an average one-way trip.

The data herein rank the top 175 US passenger airports.

On the basis of what passengers are paying on a per-mile basis, Dallas/Love is again the highest-fare airport in the nation. This is skewed due to the fact that most flights and most passengers at DAL are short-stage due to the lingering effects of the Wright Amendment. There are no long-haul flights to average out the mix, as at nearby D/FW.

Shreveport is the second-highest fare airport, based on cost per mile, and this even includes Allegiant in the mix. Of note is that seven of the top ten are in the Deep South.

Where The Passenger Is Makes A Fare Difference. However, when ranked by average one way ticket, including federal fees and taxes, it's typically geographic location that's a major factor in what passengers pay - and not always airline-related issues.

Fairbanks, Anchorage and St. Thomas are the highest in terms of average one-way fare, simply because they're a long way from most places in the nation. In fact, on a yield basis, both Anchorage and St. Thomas were just about at the national fare-per-mile average of 14.2 cents.

A Note Regarding BTS Rankings. These data do not match the rankings that BTS usually issues. The reason is that BTS ranks by average itinerary cost - i.e., the average total ticket-spend. This mixes one-ways with roundtrip tickets, which is a great indicator of consumer buying patterns, but not a comparison of how much consumers are being charged by airlines on a mile-for-mile basis.

The Aviation DataMiner 4Q Traffic Snapshot can be downloaded by clicking here.

Trial Subscriptions! This data is part of the extensive Analytical Firepower available 24/7 to subscribers of Aviation DataMiner. You can join them. We're offering free trial access to Aviation DataMiner for qualified aviation companies and airports. It's the new standard in aviation market intelligence. Airports, suppliers, financial institutions are switching to DataMiner because it's better.

If your planning for the future without DataMiner, you're planning in the dark. Take a look, and we'll have you on-line in minutes, and we'll have a step-by-step guide to making the most of DataMiner right off to you.

You'll find that not only is Aviation DataMiner more professional, and easier to use, but you'll find it far more cost-effective than other sources - most of which just regurgitate raw BTS data. Click here. to review a 4-page outline of all that DataMiner offers. Then give us a call to set up your on-line trial.
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Good News From The Motherland

The future Queen Kate of England is the first of her kind inside Buckingham Palace.

She's a whole lot more than just a common commoner. She's the first airline brat in the House of Windsor. Both of her folks were hard-working, union-card employees of British Airways.

Gotta get the visual. William and Kate standing anxiously at the gate, traveling on one of daddy's passes, hoping to get business class, wondering who has a higher pass-priority.

Nah. Probably not in the cards.
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Monday  April 25, 2011

In This Week's DataFlash...

The GTF - geared turbo fan - is soon going to be driving a lot of fleet decisions over the next six months... And it will likely involve Bombardier, Airbus, Southwest, and a whole passel of global players, too.

In The Aviation Update...

Air Service Internet Surveys - P.T. Barnum would certainly approve. Click here to review why communities should avoid these schemes like the plague.

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Jet-A At $3.50. This Is Not A Drill
Big Changes Arriving At Your Local Airport - Globally

Oil has gone over $110. And there's every indication that it's still in cruise-climb mode.

For airlines, this means a number of things that are as unambiguous as the $4-for-regular sign at the local gas station.

• First, the cost of fueling an airplane is going through the roof. (Thank you, Captain Obvious.) That means the raw economic equation is changing for every market operated. Flights that once produced a positive contribution to the bottom line are doing just the opposite, and carriers will move quickly to adjust their revenue systems.

• Second, no airliner flying today was designed with even the concept of $3 jet fuel anywhere in the manufacturer's mindset. Deal with it, whole parts of airline fleets are now economically obsolete - many of the missions they were designed for are now out of profitable reach, and it's a situation that won't be reversed. That means major shifts in revenue systems and strategies.

• Third, airline planners are fully aware that at $4 a gallon for gasoline, lots of business and discretionary dollars are being suddenly and inexorably sucked out of the economy. That means, at some  point in the near future, traffic and cargo demand could start to fall like a baby grand out of the tenth-floor window.

For air carriers, things have reached the point that it's no longer a case of just jack the fare up, or find another innovative way to charge fees for things nobody ever expected had any value whatsoever. The cost of fuel has now increased to the point that much of the fleets operated by airlines have reached the end - or shortly will reach the end, of their economic lives. It's a problem with the metal not matching the cost of operation any longer.

Changes are coming. Pronto.

Older Jets: It's Going To Rain Aluminum Over The Desert. American has announced the earlier-than-expected retirement of 25 more MD-80s. American Eagle is a tough challenge - saddled not only with aging 50-seaters, it still has 37-seat and 44-seat ERJs, which at $3 fuel get real dicey in regard to the bottom line. It's military traffic strategy not withstanding, market shifts are going to come in some form or another. Plan on Delta and United moving as fast as the agreements will allow to sharply cutting leased-in RJ flying.

Service Levels: Expect Sudden Reductions. As fuel costs come over the P&L transom, airlines won't dawdle in making cuts where red ink suddenly appears. As an example, United just announced that they're cutting PIT-LAX from daily to day-of-week flying. Watch for capacity/frequency reductions in hub-to-hub barbell routes such as DFW-ORD, IAH-ORD, and ATL-SLC. Super long-haul intercontinental flying may be cut substantially.

Every feed market - whether it be Shanghai or Shreveport - is going to get tough scrutiny in regard to revenue contribution. And, note to airports: airline planners are going to be buried in near-crisis project mode. So, in regard to any air service meetings, get to the point and close. Eschew any inclination to do irresponsible 60-slide War & Peace presentations. They really do annoy the airline.

Fleet Planning: The C-Series Is Now The Player. It's no longer a matter of fuel costs being incremental to an airline's bottom line - they are now fundamental. With the specter of $4 and higher jet-A, an "interest" on the part of airlines like Southwest in more fuel-efficient airliners, moves in to a "demand" mode.

The Bombardier C-Series is the airliner to watch. It's the only entirely new GTF-powered (geared turbo fan)platform that can be stretched to (at least) 150 seats. In addition, the Airbus decision to move on a GTF version of the A-320 has put Boeing in a very difficult competitive position. The CFM-56 core (on the 737) is an incredibly reliable engine, but it's an open question if it can be tweaked along with the current 737 airframe to deliver the type of fuel efficiency promised by the geared turbo fan (GTF) being developed by Pratt & Whitney.

Surrendering Territory & Circling The 737s Around Fortresses. The name of the game, as we pointed out last week, is no longer "route systems" but "revenue systems." That means having market share at a given city is less important than using the aircraft to build on core system strengths. American, for example, yanked some transcons out of Boston, preferring to put the capacity where it had system and alliance strengths. Qantas dumped SFO in favor of DFW. It's a new planning dynamic - plan on seeing it more.

Bottom Line: The Bottom Has Not Been Reached Yet.  Every sector of aviation will be fundamentally changed in the next 12 months. Face it, aviation's been built on cheap oil. Cheap oil is gone.

• For Bombardier, ignore the current order book. Buy a bigger one. Airbus is seeing the A-320NEO get a lot of market traction. Boeing will absolutely have to do something - and fast. Southwest is a Boeing customer, but it has a lot of airplanes coming up for replacement, and it knows where Montreal is, and also how to spell A-I-R-B-U-S.

• Airports - in the US and globally - will see changes in how they access the rest of the world. Alliance power will grow, and that will put pressure on "independents" to find new strategies.

• Suppliers are in for a roller-coaster ride, as engine and airframe strategies shift. Just one area: weight. Airlines are going to scrape to cut every excess kilo of weight off both new and existing airliners. How about IT providers? They'll also be in an opportunity mode. For example high-cost airport IT options like IATA-recommended CUPPS, are now DOA - there are better and less costly options, recommended or not.

What You Don't Know Can Nuke You. Most of the ambient, "consensus forecasts" don't address any of this. That's because "the consensus" is nothing more that just groupthink that assumes the future of aviation will be incremental changes. They are glued to their rearview mirrors.

In light of what's evolving in the global economy, putting much credibility in "the consensus" is like the mayor of Hiroshima looking up and telling his staff, "No big deal guys, It's just one B-29."

Want Real Trend Forecasts? Join Us At The Summit. If you want to get hard data and insight that deals with the future, and hard forecasts that don't assume the past is just an indicator of the future, join your colleagues at the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, August 28-30 in Albuquerque.

In addition to insights from key aviation decision-makers, the Summit provides hard traffic and trend forecasts, including our Global Fleet Trend & Demand Forecast. For US airports, there's the Airports:USA enplanement forecasts, which include the trends in airline strategies that will affect traffic at each of 146 airports.

Join us. Click here for more information and to register.

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Monday  April 18, 2011

Revenue Systems. No Longer "Route" Systems

As of this week, airlines are paying on average 50% more for a gallon of jet-A than one year ago.

It's just a tip of one very nasty set of icebergs that will fundamentally change our air transportation system as well as things like the fleets airlines will buy (or, not buy) and how they shape their operations.

Take a look at what's going on in the Middle East, and how "inflation" is now taking hold as the feds continue to print dollars faster than the Sunday New York Times, add in S&P's latest "negative" outlook on the US economy, and any semi-literate high school kid could conclude that the latter part of 2011 isn't going to be pleasant.

 Let's Get Real: It Ain't Getting Better. Average global price of jet-A is now well over $3.30 a gallon. And no airplane flying today was designed with that in mind. That means that the traditional approaches to what an airline can and cannot do will fundamentally change. Deal with it: At $3 per gallon, the cost of putting juice in the winged moose means airlines are re-thinking where and how they will toss an airplane. A lot of the traditional applications and missions are now total losers.

We've been seeing it with "regional" jets. As we pointed out ten years ago, the US industry already had more of these things in the sky, on order, and on option than the market could ever absorb. With the added fun of $3 fuel, and many original units now over 30,000 hours, hundreds of these airplanes are excess to the economic realities of  the US air transportation system.

Now we're seeing it globally, too.

Qantas Is Just The Start. Two words, Benjamin: Revenue systems. Airline planning is shifting to alliance planning, based on building revenue systems, as opposed to just building route systems to compete with another airline. That means carving out territory to defend, and identifying new revenue targets to go after, both domestically and globally. It also means withdrawing from some traditional routes and markets, and shifting resources to where better alliance system revenues can be generated.

Traditional wisdom dictated that Qantas fly to SFO from Australia. Revenue-system wisdom shifted that to DFW - where the airline could connect to a oneworld partner, instead of being frozen out from connect traffic at Star-dominated SFO. American and BA, instead of fighting for passengers between Heathrow and JFK, now schedule hourly departures, pooling equipment. It's just the start.

It's Domestic, Too. Forecasts by Boyd Group International show that this "revenue system" dynamic will affect even small and mid-size US airport service. Here's a clue: over 25% of all US passenger enplanements are the direct or indirect result of international traffic. For example, over 70% of all Tokyo-Detroit passengers are connecting to domestic flights. Many are making more than one domestic flight before returning to Asia.

What this indicates is that even a mid-size airport in the middle of the US needs to be concerned with how incumbent carriers are flowing and scheduling flights into their international hub banks. It means that airports need to be on top of any shifts or opportunities that represent international traffic generation.

So, we have fuel costs skyrocketing. We have a declining dollar. We have a recession that will likely shift traditional travel patterns permanently, particularly as airlines modify their fleet mixes. What it boils down to is that historic traffic flows (such as Qantas' SYD-SFO) are going to shift to chasing after revenue flows - and that means very fundamental changes in US airline domestic strategies as well.

Join Us & Get A Jump On The Future. On the afternoon of August 28, as part of the 16th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, we're holding a cutting-edge optional workshop:  The Global Airline Industry - Challenges & Opportunities For US Airports. It will cover the trends and economic issues that will affect airports from DFW to GEG to GNV. Not all of the trends are positive, but we will be covering what airports really face, good and bad. Complete details on the Workshop will be posted shortly.

Early registration rates are available through June 6. Click here for details on the Summit.

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Monday  April 11, 2011

Air Service Development Strategies - Time To Face The Future
The Band's Playing. But The Ship's Still Going Down

The economic structure of the transportation industry is evolving. Like it or not.

And that includes the economics of air transportation. As a result of these inexorable shifts in the financial realities of air travel, the availability and types of air access are changing across America. And each region is different. Each community is different, facing varying challenges.

The Rewind Button Is Broken. What this means is that air service planning must evolve to address the new economic realities. Unfortunately, most of the current strategies are geared as desperate attempts to hold on to the past, instead of accepting and embracing the realities if the future, not all of which are negative in regard to the #1 - but typically ignored - imperative of air service planning, access from the rest of the globe. Sorry, it's not nonstops to go ride Dumbo - which are okay, but they don't do diddly to enhance economic growth. That's not air service access.

It's The Raw Economics of 2011. Ignore Them At Your Peril. It’s pretty obvious what’s happening to part or even all of the air service at some small and mid-size communities: the basic economic and financial foundations that supported air service in the past are sinking fast. And like the air service that’s going overboard along with them, it’s a fundamental, permanent change.

Stop Dancing To The Band On Deck. Start Looking For Alternatives. No number of studies, surveys, “best practices,” subsidies, SCASD grants, conferences, social media, task forces, travel banks, cocktail-party speed dating meetings with airline planners, or other desperate voodoo will change it. Hiding from the hard reality that whole new – and often difficult – alternatives to local air service must be pursued will only put a community further behind the curve.

The traditional expectations - and, importantly, perceptions - of air service are no longer always consistent with the new economic realities. Fuel and other costs are putting the air service bar way above what some airports can ever hope to generate. The 30-50 seat turboprops are going away fast - again, because of new economics. As we advised our clients over five years ago, 50-seat RJs are obsolete for many of their current mission applications, and are not going to be replaced as they head for the sunny climes of the desert, and later to be the center attractions in the Bud Lite display at your local supermarket. Delta is yanking down its fleet of RJs. AMR is trying all sorts of strategies with American Eagle, plumping it for a hoped for sale to somebody. But at the end of the day, lots of Eagle ERJs are not going to be in the sky.

To mix metaphors, the traditional approaches to air service enhancement are aimed at an economic ship that’s going down, and no amount of consultant shenanigans will make any difference whatsoever. It’s high time to look for alternative viable approaches to assuring air service access for whole regions.

Yes, We Need EAS. To be sure, a small part of the future is the need for an EAS program that makes sense, which most of the current EAS system misses. There are parts of Kansas, Maine, West Virginia, and Montana - just for examples, where a real EAS program is desperately needed.

Tumble To It. Zero Service At Lewiston/Auburn, Glens Falls & Brookings Was Just The Start.  But more visibly, the future for air service access for America will be regional. Access is the critical objective - but that does not always mean scheduled service can be economically viable at every local airport.

Airport Capacity - It's In Play. Last year, at the 15th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, Bill Swelbar of MIT reached down and firmly grasped the industry's Third Rail - posing the question that maybe the US should re-think how many airports it can governmentally support. Truly anathema. And certainly grounds for ACI to issue an immediate fatwa on Mr. Swelbar. But, if America is to have the air transportation system it needs, questions such as this must be asked and analyzed.

At Boyd Group International, we counsel our airport clients to let go of the past. There is a strong future for US air service. But it's not going to look like what it was in 1980, which is what most communities are being misled into believing can be recaptured.

It's simply recognizing that there's no future trying to resuscitate the past. But unlike the real Titanic, with proper planning, the Good Ship Reality is right along side, and communities can jump on without getting wet - if they stop trying to bring back the past.

We'll be reviewing these realities - and more - at the 16th International Aviation Forecast Summit in Albuquerque, August 28-30. By the way, we're pleased to have Mr. Swelbar back to pounce on more of aviation's Third Rails, too. (There's that mixed metaphor thing, again.)

Extra early registration ends this week. So click the link above an join your colleagues.
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Matching Wits With The Unarmed...

Airline data and information. In the hands of competent, experienced professionals, they are incredibly powerful.

But when they fall into the hands of people who have no real understanding of the industry, the results can be much the same as sitting a chimpanzee in front of a typewriter. A lot of keys will get hit, but the final product will be a long way from War And Peace.

These things get even more fun when folks who probably don't know the difference between a DC-10 and a Toyota T-100 put out a breathless "expose" on the industry, resplendent with lots of mathematical formulas, which somehow are intended to substitute for lack of subject matter knowledge.

It happened a couple weeks ago when some battery-powered financial guru put out a tome on how market share is, well, just everything, when it comes to airline strategy. He buttressed the argument by pointing out data regarding Southwest's success in putting nonstops in the MSY-PBI market. Only problem is that Southwest never did any such thing. The report was garbage wrapped in really pretty credentials. (Go There)

Last week, we had two more examples of airline data falling into the hands of the uninformed.

Ho-Hum: The Airline Quality Report. The first was the now-boring and completely uninteresting "Airline Quality Report," which is issued annually in April from somewhere in the mushroom-garden depths of academia. It just takes DOT tables that any data-monkey can download, and molests them to the point that it bamboozles some in the media into believing that the AQR's an authoritative new insight to airline operations.

The reality is that, despite all the fancy mathematical formulas they use, nothing much of value comes out beyond what we already know. Refreshingly, this year, the Wall Street Journal concluded as much. (At least the AQR authors have finally learned that it's "Delta Air Lines" - not "Airlines" as they used for years. Knowing the proper names of airlines is always a good start.)

The good news is that the public this year was spared the usual media frenzy over the AQR due to the Southwest Yuma incident, which took up most of the column inches and top stories on the evening news. Not much missed there, as the document is just esoteric tables explained by way-too-long paragraphs that, if they could be bottled, would be direct competition for Sominex.

Move Over, Forbes. You Have Competition. Then there was the New York Times article that took BTS data, fed it into some super-sophisticated regression analyses, and came out with what was postured as an authoritative list of "overpriced" airports. A basic knowledge of airline models and economics was not required.

 It had all the intellectual value of a high school term paper. To even discuss it gives the entire pandering moronic article a profile that takes attention away from its highest and best use: to wrap fish.

As far as ignorance of the subject matter goes, the Times article is a strong contender to Forbes' "Rip-Off Airports" report of a few years ago. 

We're in the "information age." Unfortunately, there's no training manual on how to navigate around the mis-information that comes along with it.

One option is to join the aviation leaders who subscribe to Aviation DataMiner - the new standard in industry metrics. Click here to get a view of the Analytical Firepower aviation planners are using to get ahead of the competition.

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Monday  April 4, 2011

Aviation DataMiner Upgrades Now On-Line

Responding to our growing subscriber base and the addition of new reporting features, we have now migrated Aviation DataMiner to a new, much larger server using the latest Microsoft Server 2008 software. Response time will be faster than ever, and whole new report features are also being added.

The Raw Data Are Not Market Intelligence - Quite The Opposite. For airport planning, DataMiner is the most accurate source available. It addresses the reporting challenges of the new multi-operator airline brands.

Unlike other systems, which just regurgitate raw DOT numbers, DataMiner properly aggregates traffic to the correct airline brand. SkyWest passengers at Denver, for example, are accurately reported within the Delta and United systems. Other, slap-dash programs just lump these passengers as being carried by "commuters" - which is lethal to any real O&D accuracy.

Where's That Missing Continental Traffic? Another example is traffic carried by ExpressJet. It is a substantial part of the passenger base of Continental Airlines. But because ExpressJet flies nothing bigger than 50-seat RJs, it is not required to, nor does it, report O&D. DataMiner has software that relates several sources of data to get these passengers into the system.

Other data providers? Most just pull down DOT numbers, - or buy them from an intermediate vendor - and pass them on. So take your chances.

The new Aviation DataMiner system is now up and running, and giving our subscribers a competitive edge other sources can't match. For more information on how qualified entities can get a trial subscription to Aviation DataMiner, click here.

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Southwest: Cutting Through The Media Haze

There was a monumental entertainment disaster over the week-end.

It was an embarrassing fiasco, replete with incomprehensible verbal snippets, totally unintelligent monologues, and general stupidity, leaving the audience completely confused.

No, we are not talking about Charlie Sheen's disastrous Detroit road show debut. This one is far more serious, although just as ridiculous.

We're referring to some of the media's coverage of the Southwest Airlines 737-300 incident, where an emergency landing was made after part of the fuselage ruptured. To be sure, a serious event. But a lot of the reporting was neither serious, nor gave the matter the professional research it needed.

To be clear, a lot of the coverage was sound and accurate. But it only takes a couple of network cheapshot swipes at yellow journalism to turn public opinion south - particularly when it involves an airline story.

Don't Fact-Check Too Much. We're On Deadline. One commentator opined that Southwest "pounds" its airplanes, and probably should change its route system to avoid events like this. (Say what?) That's probably derived from a semi-factoid that Southwest reportedly flies its airplanes a lot of hours and makes more landings and take-offs per day than other airlines.

No doubt the viewing public was regaled, Sheen-like, by the deep-voiced oh-so-serious reporters, standing stupidly "on the scene" in front of an airport, and who personally wouldn't know a fatigue crack from a lav-truck doughnut fitting. They revealed things like "Southwest outsources its heavy maintenance," stating it in a tone that clearly and dishonestly expressed the inference that the airline cuts corners to save money.

No Matter If The Headline Isn't What The Story Says. Then there were the veneer headlines such as "NTSB Finds Fatigue Cracks on Southwest Aircraft," but you have to read down the column to find that this referred to FAA-certified repairs to cracks found - past tense - during the airliner's last heavy check.  You know, the one that's specifically done to find and repair things like that? The type of check that finds cracks and other issues on airliners across the industry.

Yes, There Could Be A Systemic Issue With The Airplane. It's a fact that Southwest has the last large fleet of 737-300s in US scheduled airline service. (US Airways has about 19 of them, plus some -400s.)  And machinery is machinery - it can turn up all sorts of stuff as it gets older. The checks being done on existing Southwest 737s will tell more in the coming days.

But in the meantime, it would be really nice if some sections of the media would be cognizant of the responsibility to do some reasonable research before spitting out factoids that may not be fully accurate and could damage the reputation of an airline that still has the old-fashioned belief that going the extra mile and treating employees and customers well is the right way to make money.

Okay. Now For Some Facts. We've accessed Aviation DataMiner and analyzed hard data on Southwest. Interesting stuff. One is that despite the babble we're hearing about "old airplanes" the truth is that of the pre-deregulation airlines (meaning those that have not started in the past decade or so) Southwest Airlines has the second-youngest fleet in terms of average aircraft age. There's more, too.

Click here to go to the Aviation DataFlash - the facts are a lot different from much of the hype.
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