Aviation Forecast Summit 2009 - Boyd Group International



Boyd Group International Website Home Register Securely On Line To see why this is the #1 aviation event: Highlights of Prior Summits Reserve Your Special Room Rate At The Marriott Griffin Gate, Lexington The Boyd Group, Inc. Advisors to the Aviation Industry Since 1984 78 Beaver Brook Canyon Road Evergreen, Colorado, 80439 303-674-2000 303-674-9995 Facsimile aviation-info@aviationplanning.com	The Aviation Ground Rules Are Changing Fundamentally Join Us And Get Prepared Lexington, Kentucky October 4 - 6, 2009 Information. Forecasts. Answers. This will be the fourteenth year of the Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit. But this year, things are different. A lot different. With all the changes in the economy, in the airline industry, in the airframe industry, as well as a new Administration, the future is more correctly described as the Uncharted Environment. Face it, there's a fundamental shift in the financial underpinnings of the nation, not to mention the globe. That means aviation - a key industry and a key part of global communication - will be changed forever in structure, size, and role. The Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit is the only event that will address what these changes mean to each sector of the industry - airports, airlines, suppliers and financial institutions. We're Already Seeing Rapid Deterioration Of The Old Status Quo We have global economic "repositioning" - a.k.a. a recession. Falling air passenger demand. International traffic - both passenger and cargo - is declining rapidly. General and business aviation are under some of the worst downward pressure in history, driven by recession and political second-agendas coming from Washington. Airliner demand - just months ago in the midst of huge backlogs - is now seeing the potential for cancellations, deferrals, and white tails coming off the line and flying right to the desert. We have a new Administration - one that marches to entirely different drummers than any prior one. It's high on "environmental" schemes. It's spending money massively - but has specific agendas that the nation in the past has not experienced. Even the new Secretary of Transportation has noted he'll be taking his cues from the Administration's environmental advisors. That means big changes in how all sectors of aviation will be allowed to work. It's clear that yesterday's metrics, yesterday's standards, and yesterday's goals are no longer valid. Anybody who thinks there won't be large and difficult policy changes affecting aviation simply is not paying attention. This is precisely the reason you need to clear your calendar and be in Lexington, Kentucky October 4-6, 2009. This may be the most important event you can attend this year. Boyd Group International is monitoring these and other emerging dynamics, and our unrivaled expertise in aviation forecasting will translate them into concrete views of the future. Make no mistake - we are not in the midst of just more of the same. Aviation is facing enormous operational and business changes in the next four years. The new economic realities - and, importantly, the new political realities in Washington - will fundamentally change aviation demand and its future. Changes in airline strategies, Global fleet demand, and the new fleet mixes. Changes in regulatory oversight - remember, the current administration is not just more of the same. The welcome mat is out at 1600 Pennsylvania for a whole range of different concepts in regard to air travel, environmental issues, and what consumers can expect as a result. Real Forecasts. Not Supposition As with our prior conferences, the 2009 Summit will be an event that provides actual, independent forecasts of all areas of aviation. No supposition. No meandering panels of opinions. Just the direct, and focused data from The Boyd Group's three main annual forecasts. Aviation Trend Forecasts that outline how each sector will move in the coming year and beyond. The new strategies and tactics in the airline industry, in the aircraft manufacturing sector, and in other key areas. The Annual Boyd Group Global Aircraft Fleet Demand Forecast for the next decade. Where new airliner demand will be seen. Retirement trends. Capacity shifts and category overlaps. The only independent forecast of its kind, and with a track record unrivaled for accuracy. We don't follow the consensus. We look over the horizon and give our clients a better view of the future. And The Boyd Group's exclusive Airports:USA(TM) enplanement growth data. Where traffic growth will manifest, where it will decline. And the trends that will be in play over the next five years. Interviews & Discussions With Industry Leaders In addition to the aviation industry's most incisive and valuable forecasts, we're also going to have an agenda that will provide insights and perspectives that are available nowhere else. Discussions - not boring canned presentations. The Summit format is mostly around probing and insightful discussions with key leaders in aviation. You get real information - not supposition - not only from The Boyd Group's professional forecasts, but also from key leaders in aviation. We ask hard questions. And hard follow-up questions. And so can attendees. Sorry, We're Not Inviting The Secretary of Transportation. This Summit concentrates on providing aviation forecast information, data, and insight available nowhere else. It is an event focused on futurist concepts, straight talk, and real forecasts. Political correctness is not allowed in the door, because we look for the bottom line. Not the party line. Other conferences gravitate around rambling "keynote" speeches made by FAA administrators, DOT officials, and various federal bureaucrats. In virtually all cases, such presentations are carefully-prepared canned speeches that fail to advance the forum of discussion. The truth is that these types of folks can't speak freely - they've got to espouse the official position on aviation matters - even when they know some policies make absolutely no sense at all. Then consider the fact is that Washington has accomplished very little in regard to meeting aviation's challenges. This should clearly explain why DOT Secretaries, under-secretaries, former FAA Administrators and other people from the political universe inside the Beltway are not invited to the annual Boyd Group International Forecast Summits. They may be very nice people. But they can't tell us anything new. When it comes to telling it like it is, the Boyd Group International Forecast Summit has earned the reputation of straight talk, and taking no prisoners. For 14 years, the Summit has provided insights from actual decision-makers. This year will be no different. Presenters at this year's Summit include (and there are more to be announced): Airbus - Brent McBratney - Director Airline Marketing Boeing - Randy Tinseth - VP Marketing Bombardier - (Speaker To Be Announced) American Airlines - Will Ris - Sr. VP Government Affairs Delta Air Lines - Don Bornhorst - SVP Delta Connection Oil Price Information Service - Ben Brockwell, Dir. Data Continental Airlines - Jim Compton - Executive VP Marketing General Electric Aviation - Andrew Chuang - Forecasting & Analysis Leader Great Lakes Aviation - Chuck Howell - CEO Mesaba Airlines - John Spanjers - President ATH Group - Captain Michael Baiada, CEO ICAO - Narjess Teyssier - Chief of Economic Analysis Attendees at Boyd Group International Forcast Summits leave the event armed with vision and insight that better prepares them for the future. At this year's Summit, that will be the case as well. In the meantime, we'd suggest you clear your calendar for October 4-6 This is also a must-attend for people in the travel industry who may want to learn more about the new emerging dynamics of the industry. A Working Conference. Not A Social Event Our regular annual attendees will tell you that the Boyd Group International Forecast Summit is a working conference - one that provides hard, data-focused forecasts that are free of political or other agendas. The new emerging trends. Traffic demand and the drivers behind it. And it will be a Summit. A Summit of new ideas. A Summit covering the new future of aviation. A Summit that will provide attendees with a clearer view of what can be expected in the months ahead. You have to deal with the real world, and as of today, that represents completely uncharted territory. Remember, the spike in oil prices affect the entire economy - distribution, logistics, consumer spending patterns, levels of discretionary income, capital spending across entire industries. Aviation is going to be buffeted and changed by these swirling dynamics, most of which have not yet fully manifested. This Aviation Forecast Summit is a day and a half that delivers information, insight, and data that will assist in understanding and navigating the new, post-Obama business environment. It is not meant to be "thought-provoking." Other conferences can do that, wasting precious time. This Summit is intended to provoke action - outline the future and give the attendees information and insight they can apply immediately. A Focused. No-Nonsense Format. This Summit will explore and define the new strategies for survival and success in the future. As our annual attendees know, this event is an activist and aggressive forecast conference - it is not a collection of rambling opinions and vapid panels. Boyd Group International is the foremost firm in providing no-nonsense aviation trend forecasts. And this year, it's going to be no different. Just more intense. So clear your calendar for October 4-6 and prepare to get some hard forecast data on what we can expect in the next 18 months. Covering New Territory - Not Re-hashing The Past Let's not dance around reality. The Obama Administration and the new mix in Congress are intent on changing things fundamentally. We've already been told that one of the Administration's goals is to seek "sustainable" alternatives to air travel. It's uncertain as to exactly what that means, but it is a certainty that it represents what will be policies to structurally change how the nation uses aviation. This Summit will explore these issues and provide insight on how each sector of aviation will be affected. Just a brief outline of some of the concepts our Forecasts we're covering at the Summit: Demand Forecasts. The fuel-driven airline capacity cuts implemented for the 3Q and 4Q of 2008 initially exceeded any declines in consumer demand. Until November, that is - when demand began a near-free fall. The combined Boyd Group International expertise in fleet demand, airline strategies, and enplanement forecasting will provide Summit attendees with a clear understanding of the dynamics to watch and how they will affect airports, airlines, suppliers, and financial institutions. Fleets: More Wrenching Changes. This year, the Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast will reflect changes in both airline strategies and manufacturer product lines. Two years ago, the Boyd Group International forecast noted that the Bombardier C-Series, then not yet a firm program, would be a potential 737/A-320 competitor. As of today, with the Lufthansa order, that is precisely where the C-Jet is headed Our 2008 forecast projecting retirement of large numbers of regional jets did not sit well in some corners of the industry. In fact, it didn't sit well with Boyd Group International, either. But regardless, facts are facts, and that is what this Summit is all about. And indeed, our projections of accelerated retirement of RJs has begun to manifest. We regret that some found our projections unpleasant. But we don't regret the fact that we published them as-is, where-is, and they were accurate. There will be continuing fleet-related issues that will affect airlines, airports, suppliers and manufacturers. These include declining traffic demand, changes in the business/leisure travel mix, the evolving relationship between ownership costs and fuel expense, plus new tax and environmental regulations expected from Washington. Increasing International Carrier Inroads. The days of US carriers dominating key traffic flows - such as US-Asia - are coming to a crossroads. Chinese carriers may currently appear to be in a state of difficulty, if not outright organizational chaos. But that is not a permanent situation. These entities will take the forefront in alliance relationships and push for larger shares of intra-regional global traffic. How this and other emerging dynamics will drive new US competitive strategies in air service, aircraft design, and financing will be covered. Outdated Airline Product Execution. This New Environment is not one that will be friendly nor understanding of airline service issues. There likely will be some form of punitive "consumer" legislation proposed. The entire aviation industry could be affected. Continued Functional Irrelevance From FAA Policy. As we've accurately covered at Boyd Group International Forecast Summits over the past decade, there is no functionally-effective program to address the collapsing air traffic control system. Year after year, this is the event that's outlined the problem, and illuminated the fact that the FAA is off on another planet in addressing the issue. That means the industry must take matters into its own hands. Waiting for the FAA to fix things is as useless as waiting for Elvis to arrive. The Coming Environmental Attack. This Administration has stated that it wants to find "sustainable" alternatives to air travel. Bluntly, that is fundamentally nothing more than a dangerous bromide that plays to crackpot environmentalists who opine that air travel is a dangerous polluter - which it is not. But these types have the ear of the new Administration, and all sectors of aviation need to be prepared with facts. This Summit, unlike other events, is all about facts. New Fleet Strategies. The global financial meltdown has clouded the availability and costs of financing for new airliners - including those already registered on the orderbooks. Add to this the uncertainty of oil prices, and carriers may want to stand pat on the fleets they already have - give or take several hundred retirements. General & Business Aviation. There is no need to parse words on this subject. The combination of a business downturn, plus a political agenda against business jets has resulted in a very wounded part of the aviation industry. At the Summit, we'll be providing an estimate of the damage already done, as well as what we can expect in regard to a rebound in the coming 18 months. These are among the many trends we'll be covering at the Aviation Forecast Summit at Lexington, October 4-6. Unlike other conferences, this one actually focuses on reality, not hypothetical opinion. This conference has hard data, not carefully-worded "opinions" from bureaucrats or others. Conference Venue: Marriott Griffin Gate, Lexington, Kentucky We are honored to have the Lexington Bluegrass Airport as our host for the 2009 Aviation Forecast Summit. Lexington is in the middle of Kentucky horse country, with rolling green hills and October is a perfect time of the year. It's easy to get to - with service from virtually major carrier, and frequent flights. The Marriott Griffin Gate is just ten minutes from Blue Grass Airport, and is a relaxed and perfect property for some hard work during the day, followed by relaxing evenings with fellow attendees. Special Summit rates have been arranged for attendees. A Monday Night Event To Remember. We're also happy to announce that Blue Grass Airport will be hosting an exciting Monday night event at the Woodford Reserve Distillery hospitality house. After a full day, this will be a great opportunity to unwind. It's a beautiful creekside site right in the middle of some of the nation's most beautiful countryside. Summit Format The Summit begins with a welcome reception on the evening of October 4. The next morning forecast sessions kick off at 8AM - sharp, and continue to approximately 5:30PM. Tuesday, the Summit resumes at 8AM and will wrap up at approximately 12:30PM. Conference Rates To reserve your space at the conference, you can register securely on-line by clicking here. If you'd prefer to do so directly by phone, give us a call at (303) 674-2000. Early registration Summit fees are $895, if made and payment received before May 15. Bring your colleagues - additional attendees from the same organization are $595. Reserve your room at our special rates by clicking here. But in any case do register and join your colleagues - We look forward to seeing you! _____________