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The
Boyd Group, Inc.
Advisors to the Aviation Industry
Since 1984
78 Beaver Brook Canyon Road
Evergreen, Colorado, 80439
303-674-2000
303-674-9995 Facsimile
aviation-info@aviationplanning.com
Get A Jump On The Future.
Join The Top Aviation Leaders
In Sarasota, October 14-16, 2007 Click Here For Conference AgendaFor over a decade, The Boyd Group has provided a forum where real forecasts are
presented. Every October, The Boyd Group Aviation Forecast Conference is an event that outlines what can be expected to take place in all areas of the industry.
In 2006, we completely sold out our venue, The Stein Eriksen Lodge in Deer Valley, Utah. A five star resort and a very hard act to follow. But we've done it, and we're pleased to announce the Conference venue this year is the Hyatt Sarasota, and we're honored to have the Conference hosted by the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport.
As In The Past, A Format Focused On Hard Data,
Not Government Smoke Or On The "Consensus"A Conference With A Real Track Record. Planning for the future requires understanding of the dynamics that will shape the air transportation system. And that's the unrelenting focus of The Boyd Group Annual Forecast Conference.
Insights, Information and Forecasts That Give You The Competitive Edge.
Hard-Edged Data. As-Is-Where Is.
From The Experts At The Boyd Group -
And From Key Industry Decision-Makers.This is the conference that airline, airport, and aviation leaders attend, the one that provides attendees with data, information, and insights available nowhere else. For highlights of the 2006 Conference, click here.
Exclusive: Discussions With Industry Leaders
Up Close & InformationalReal Data From Real Leaders. In addition to sessions providing The Boyd Group's clear, direct, and no-waffling forecasts of aircraft demand, airline strategies, and airport
traffic growth, the people speaking at our conference are ones who really are calling the shots when it comes to aviation's future.
But, unlike at other conferences, they won't be just speaking. We'll be discussing aviation issues with them and getting their insight of the future. The format of this conference is different. Our objective is to inform, not inflict death by PowerPoint. And we don't have panel sessions - they tend to just dance around issues and leave the attendees with a lot of rambling supposition.
Unique to The Boyd Group Conference, we have in-depth, one-on-one interviews with our speakers, where a principal of The Boyd Group poses insightful questions and fields input from the attendees. Last year in Deer Valley, we called them "fireside chats." In Sarasota, the theme will be Beach Banter, and we'll be kicking around a lot of interesting information that attendees can actually use. This innovative and informative format has been so well received that other conferences are now trying to copy it.
We have an exciting list of confirmed aviation leaders from the key areas of the industry:
AirTran - Robert Fornaro, CEO - Bob is always direct and does not shrink from telling it like it is. AirTran is looking at new expansion opportunities and new market dimensions. By the time of the Conference, there will be more information on his carrier's unfolding offer to acquire Midwest Airlines. With 60 new Boeing 737s coming on-line, we can expect some new directions from AirTran.
Northwest Airlines - Laura Liu - VP of International Revenue Management & Planning is joining us to review how Northwest is taking advantage of both domestic and international growth points. Increasingly, the traffic generated from international points (particularly China) represents a revenue "ricochet" as these passengers then take multiple trips within the US once they arrive. These revenue streams are a main reason that legacy carriers are less and less vulnerable to LCCs. Where these streams are focused, and how Northwest tends to take advantage of them will be a major part of our discussion with Ms. Liu.
Boeing - Richard Wynn, Director - Business Strategies - With all the noise about the 787, we're honored to have Mr. Wynn at the Conference to discuss where Boeing will be going and how it will affect airlines in the future. The B-787 is more than just another airliner. It represents fundamental "disruption" to not only traditional airline economics, but the entire airframe manufacturing industry.
Airbus - Simon Pickup, Director Business Operations - Airbus is on the cutting edge of emerging airframe technology, regardless of how competitive orderbooks may look at any given moment. It has a four-year backlog for A-320s, and its A-350XWB will be another deal-changer in the airline industry. The "composite revolution" is an emerging trend, and next generation technology will evolve in the coming years. Therefore, the A-350XWB will have major impact on airline planning in the middle of the next decade. Simon is one of the most engaging professionals in the business, and we'll be discussing these issues with him.
Bombardier - Barry MacKinnon, VP Airline Analysis. With new emerging manufacturing technologies, skyrocketing fuel prices, and other factors, the need for next-generation airliners - particularly single-aisle - will increase faster than previously expected, possibly outpacing current production estimates. The market for 100 to 150 seat jets is the sweet spot and Bombardier is positioned to expand in this area.
KLM - Pieter Elbers, Senior VP - Network. Global alliances are critical to US carriers, and will be a lynchpin revenue source for EU carriers as well. Mr. Elbers will review what this can mean for US cities and the US air transportation system.
Frontier - Sean Menke - CEO - The animals on the tails are cute and cuddly, its flight attendants are the industry service standard, and the whole atmosphere at the carrier is lay-back and fun. But when it comes to competitors, Frontier has demonstrated in the past year that it's fuzzy little animals have a nasty bite. Far from being vanquished by the entry of Southwest into Denver, it has maintained market share and brand loyalty, and has not ceded any territory. We will be talking about how Sean sees the future at Denver, the opportunities for more trans-boarder traffic, and Frontier's move to a more diverse fleet.
Embraer - Bruce Peddle, VP Marketing & Sales - As our prior Conference attendees were advised five years ago, the future is in E-Jets, not RJs. Embraer is now emerging as the number three global airliner manufacturer. The E-170/190 platform is now filling the gap left by the retirement of DC-9s, 737-200s and F-100s, not to mention bringing new economics that are threatening much of the in-place RJ fleets. We are going to explore what this means for airports and for financial institutions which will need to address new and revised facilities to handle these jets.
Republic Airways - Jeff Jones, VP Market Planning. Republic is an innovative leader in the small lift provider category, providing RJs and E-Jets to Continental, United, Delta, American, US Airways, and Frontier. This competitive sector is on the verge of a number of fundamental changes, with the accelerating retirement of 50-seat RJs and the additional interest in E-Jets filling the capacity gap voids left by retirement of DC-9s, F-100s, and 737-200s. Republic has been visionary in this sector.
And, more to be announced.
This Is A Real Forecast Conference
New Data. New PerspectivesOur expertise and research on issues such as airline strategies, new fleets, regulatory issues, air service trends, and future aviation challenges set this conference apart. We cover the emerging industry trends that airports, airlines, aviation authorities, OEMs, and financial institutions will need to consider in their future planning.
The Conference provides hard forecast data and information, with three key forecast sessions:
Airline & Aviation Trend & Strategy Forecasts
This session includes reviews of current and expected trends in aviation, such as legislative issues, effects of fuel prices, and emerging airline industry strategies. Within this will be reviews of tactical shifts at carriers, the potential - or non-potential - for consolidation to raise its ugly head again, and how airlines, airports, and suppliers will need to plan to take advantage of such dynamics.
General Trends. The Conference reviews the trends that are expected to emerge in aviation in the coming years. We look at where airlines are today, what their strategies are now, and what we can expect in the future. What will be the fallout if oil prices continue to go up? Or down? What can we expect from legacy carriers as they restructure and reframe their route systems?
As "regional jets" become less economically attractive, what shifts can we expect to see in air service patterns? Are turboprops coming back big-time? (Hint: they're not, but it is an issue.)
New General Aviation Shifts. What about VLJs? Without question, they are going to have huge demand. But in what roles? The on-demand air service concept is dicey at best. But what about fractional ownership? What about as replacement for older PC-12s or even King Airs? And what about the demand generated from owner-operators? Then we have the effects of a collapsing air traffic control system to consider.
ATC: The New Paradigm For Airlines - And Airports. We've been outlining the on-going collapse of the ATC system at our conferences for the past decade. Now, with delays at an all time
high, the airline industry itself is finally making some noise about it.
Unfortunately, they’re merely calling for the FAA to do more of the same, not for solutions. But we’ll be outlining what must be done – and soon – if the nation is to avoid air service rationing.
At the Conference, we're going to outline what is now an unshakable truth: The FAA is now irrelevant to the ATC issue. Irrelevant because they've shown they simply are too inept to address the challenge. So, if as as solution the FAA is out of the picture, what needs to be done? We're going to have some ground-breaking discussions on this matter. Prepare to hear some hard truths - and a lot of new concepts.
The Consumer Mob (and Congressional) Revolt. As if a collapsing ATC system, high fuel costs, and impending labor issues are not enough, airlines and airports are now facing politicians and gadfly consumerists demanding their “rights” not to be inconvenienced by delays, diversions, and cancellations. What this can mean, and what airlines must do will all be outlined at the Conference.
The Boyd Group is the industry leader in trend and strategy forecasting. These and other issues are covered at the Conference, but more importantly, the effects on airports, airlines, communities, and aviation suppliers are clearly forecast as well.
Airport Enplanement Forecasts - 2008 - 2012
The Boyd Group's renown Airports:USA traffic database tracks enplanements, and the trends that will drive them in the future, at 146 airports, representing over 95% of all US passengers.
Conference attendees are provided with an in-depth review of the key trends that can be expected in over the next five years, and which airports and regions
of the nation are subject to significant traffic shifts.
Unlike FAA forecasts, which are just trendlines from the past, Airports:USA forecasts are based on key future emerging trends at each airport, such as expected shifts in airline strategies and capacity, demographic changes, and important economic impacts - such as new industry investment - in each airport's catchment area.
No other forecast source is so comprehensive. That might be one reason that Airports:USA is the only source of forecasts accomplished entirely independently in the private sector.
Global Fleet Forecast
Aircraft demand has an effect on all sectors of aviation, including airports, airlines, and suppliers. And that's where the value of The Boyd Group's global fleet forecast expertise comes in. Not only do we cover the fleet demand by global region, by year, and by aircraft category, but we discuss the trends The Boyd Group sees that are driving such demand.
For example, attendees at our Conference were prepared for the decline in RJ demand long before others even noticed. They were made aware four years ago regarding the impact that single-aisle E-Jets are just now having on the industry. Airport attendees were well aware of these dynamics and the facility demands they would engender. Supplier attendees learned three years ago how new airliner demand would focus in the 80 to 150-seat ranges.
The Boyd Group maintains the most comprehensive and futurist aircraft demand forecast system in the industry. Because we accomplish this forecast on a region-by-region, and airline-by-airline basis, it relates to actual industry-driven factors, instead of simply mathematics models. Changes in airline fleets can and will affect the entire spectrum of aviation - how airports must plan facilities, how OEMs need to structure supply chains, how communities may be affected, and how the competitive mix may change.
This year, we'll be also review the effects of "disruptive" aircraft, such as the 787 and the A-350, which will almost certainly revise the retirements schedules of hundreds of 767s and 757s, as well as early-model A-330s. Contrary to some ambient thinking, don't count out the A-350. The later-arriving A-350 may well be a deal changer, as history is full of examples of market innovators (like the 787) being given a good run by later-arriving competitors.
Airports and particularly financial institutions need to keep a close watch on the regional jet marketplace. While the era of high RJ demand is over, the applications and value of the in-fleet units will change materially in the years ahead. Affecting this will be how the orderbook is arranged for the lower end of the mainline jet market, namely the Embraer E-170/190 platform. The mix will affect the future applications of RJs, particularly the larger, 70-90 seat CRJs.
Prepare To Hear A Lot of Aviation Heresy
This is an event where new, cutting-edge information is presented. Attendees at last year's Conference, for example, will remember that The Boyd Group's session covering Aviation Trend & Strategy Forecasts outlined how the then-loud din from the media and Wall Street about the impending rush to airline mergers was just so much media frenzy - gossip, not facts. Not a point that was consistent with what "everybody" was then saying. But today, our data have been borne out.
Our attendees in 2000 were advised that the demand for RJs was going to decline rapidly and E-Jets would be the next order-rush. That, too, was counter to the accepted "wisdom" in aviation. But it was accurate, and our clients and our Conference attendees were well prepared. Three years ago, our independent analyses of the airline industry indicated that it was LCCs, not legacy carriers, that were facing real challenges in the future. That, too, was counter to the herd-mentality, and has been also proven to be accurate. It is precisely this quality of information that's presented at The Boyd Group Conference.
At The Boyd Group, we deal in facts and our own research, and give no heed to the "consensus." This is aviation, which must be planned on hard data, not on conjecture from the media and from Wall Street analysts, some of whom do no real research whatsoever.
Facts. Not Political Correctness. At The Boyd Group Aviation Forecast Conference, we don't dance around issues. Our attendees - 80% or more which return year after year - don't want their time wasted with pablum speeches or political nonsense.
As in prior years, we can guarantee that The DOT Under-Secretary-of-Something-Or-Other will not be speaking. Former FAA Administrator Marion Blakey will also not be in attendance to tell us about how the FAA's years-behind and mis-managed ATC system is is now re-named "NexGen" and is doing just ducky. As a matter of fact, nobody from the DOT, Homeland Security, or the TSA will be there, simply because canned policy speeches have no place at The Boyd Group Conference. Our forecast event is several leagues ahead of anything people like that offer. Besides, their rote party-line presentations can be found at other, less advanced conferences.
Optional Pre-Conference Workshops
We're also offering three optional pre-event workshops, on Sunday afternoon, October 14th. Registration is $25 per Workshop, and is open only to registered Conference attendees. The Workshops are sequential, starting at 1:30PM, so you can attend one, two, or all three. The format is informal and fun, and the information will be valuable to your future planning. So, if you're getting in before 1:30PM on Sunday, join us.
Workshop One: Making Sense of Airline Financials. (October 14, 1:30 - 2:30) Form-41 is great. So are published 10-K reports. The problem is that the reporting isn't always apples-to-apples between carriers.
Furthermore, sometimes the attention to detail in F-41 can lean toward the sloppy side. This workshop can help.
The media may report "Traffic declining at XYZ Airlines," giving the impression that the carrier is failing, when in fact other data may indicate quite the opposite. We'll be breaking down the key factors in airline financial reports, and outlining where comparative pitfalls may be, and how to better divine what the information points to. For those who need solid information on not just what the data are, but how they relate to the future, this workshop should be of value.
Workshop Two: Economic Impact Analyses For Airports. (October 14, 2:45 - 3:45)The amount of economic contribution an airport makes to a region is often simply ignored or underestimated. Knowing the number and types of jobs, for example, that your airport generates is a very valuable planning tool. Knowing the amount of money the airport's operations pumps into the local economy is valuable, too, in forecasting the results of new service and new facility expansion.
Tim Sieber will review what airports can look for in developing their own impact analyses and how they can effectively use this data to build community support, as well as justify necessary facility improvements.
Workshop Three: Q &A Regarding Emerging Air Service Recruitment. (October 14, 4:00 - 5:30) Once again this year, we'll again have an informal but informative session reviewing the new and expected shifts in air service development strategies. The workshop will be directed by Mike Mooney.
The Boyd Group is more successful than any other firm in helping airports win new air service. The reason is that we understand what carriers are looking for, and we assist our clients away from the new minefields that exist when approaching an airline.
The days are over where using flashy schtick and PR stunts (for example, the tired out Wild Turkey gig when approaching Southwest) will get an airline's attention. Hard data and direct approaches are needed, but they will vary depending on the carrier and the type of service.
Today, the decision points regarding airline market planning are changing. It's not what the community needs or wants, nor even how much traffic it represents, but instead the measure is how the community rates as an opportunity to the target carrier, within that carrier's specific strategies. The first step is to determine what that airline is looking for, and then determine if the community has a fit, not the other way around.
If you're looking for new concepts in this regard, Mike will be reviewing these. He'll also be going over some points of what not to do when visiting an airline's planning department. Things that are sure turn-offs to airline planners. Like, bringing the Mayor. Or, the entire chamber of commerce. Or, anybody dressed like a polar bear. Or, the need to avoid the lethal comment, "our benchmark study says we're a better market than Lubbock, so how come you fly there instead?" Yessir, there's nothing more rapport-building than insulting the airline by implying they're flying to the wrong places.
This workshop is limited, so be sure to sign up when registering for the Conference.
If your schedule allows, these Workshops will be informative and fun. Space is limited, So please register early.
A Forecast Track Record That's Unrivaled
The Conference is consistent with the rest of the work we do at The Boyd Group. We do not run with the pack. We're way ahead of it. Most other consultants' "forecasts" are the equivalent of predicting the outcome of an instant re-play at a football game. Only when it's been long-obvious does a "prediction" take place. Sorry, but that's not how The Boyd Group does business. Our forecasts are just that - a look over the horizon, not into the rearview mirror.
That's the reason that our forecasts are relied upon by airlines, airports, and suppliers. This is the standard which the Annual Aviation Forecast Conference attains.
The Boyd Group Forecast Conference was the venue where aviation leaders were provided insight on trends other sources missed entirely:
We were the first to accurately predict the rapid decline in demand for "regional" jet airliners - more than five years ago. As recently as earlier this year, other consultants
were parroting each other, predicting strong continued demand. Our conference attendees knew better.
The Boyd Group was the first to predict - back as early as 2000 - the market demand for "E-Jets" - 70 to 110 seaters that would fill the niche left by retirements of DC-9s, F-28s, and F-100s. Just now - after the planes are already in operation - are some other consultants "predicting" the big impact these airlines will have. Obviously, they didn't attend our conference.
Four years ago, airports attending The Boyd Group Conference were advised to shift their air service development efforts toward being "Sino-centric," due to the emerging dominance of China. Today, this is becoming very obvious, but not back then.
Since 1984, The Boyd Group has been the leader in futurist aviation thinking, and identifying new trends. In a 1986 study, we first coined the term "fortress hub." In 1989, we issued a paper, published in Commuter Air magazine, which defined what we predicted would be an emerging airline trend. The term we coined for: "focus city."
In 1989, the firm published the first independent analysis of the "regional" jet. Our analysis indicated enormous initial demand for this new aircraft type, which was at variance with virtually all other forecasts, which myopically focused on comparing the RJ costs with those of turboprops. The Boyd Group identified that the new small jet would be one that operated a much wider range of mission applications.
Bring Your Staff!
We have a special rate for additional attendees from the same organization. So, by all means, bring your staff.
A Fun, Fast-Paced Format
The conference opens with a welcome cocktail reception on October 14. The next day, bright and early, we roll up our sleeves. We know your time is valuable, so The Boyd Group Forecast Conference is focused on giving attendees maximum information within a format that is geared to assuring nobody falls asleep. The sessions are designed to be intense - and perhaps a bit entertaining.
At the end of the first day, there's a signature social event to let you relax and circulate with your aviation colleagues. The conference wraps up at approximately 1:30pm on October 16.
And, Finally, There's This Golf Event...
Immediately following the Conference, we will be holding The Second Annual Boyd Group Open, at the exclusive University Park Country Club. It's open to all attendees, and the rules are strict: we're just going to have fun with our colleagues and fellow attendees.
And it's not really annual, either, since the first Open was at our 2005 Conference in Savannah. (Last year was at Deer Valley, which in October isn't the best golf venue, unless you like the possibility of playing in snow.)
We have negotiated an outstanding deal, with green fees of $60, including cart and a box lunch.
The course is really something to see. Golf attire is required. For more information on the University Park Country Club, click here. Reserve your space on the on-line registration form.
Conference Venue:
The conference will be held at the Hyatt Sarasota, and reservations must be made
directly with the hotel.
Located on a beautiful marina, the Hyatt is close to shopping in downtown Sarasota, and is centrally located to the many of the must-see sights in the area.
(As one hint, try to plan your trip with a few hours to visit the Ringling Circus Museum. Aside from the fact that the aviation industry often resembles a circus, the Museum is a fascinating look back into history.)
On the Conference Registration page, there is a direct link where you can reserve your room securely on-line.
Conference registration is $995. Additional attendees from the same organization are $550. And the optional pre-conference workshops are just $25, for Conference attendees only.
In the meantime, get your calendar cleared. We look forward to seeing you.
To reserve your space at the conference, call (303) 674-2000 or
If you would prefer to register via fax (303 674-9995), click here to download and print a registration form.
